StansWeather.net

I had predicted this day to be a big outbreak since February, yet everyone laughed at me. What would cause me to make such a bold precise statement like this so far in advance? Cubs/Cards tickets of course! Yes, being a lifelong Cubs fan and never had a chance to visit Wrigley was just too much for me to take. A friend of mine had somehow secured some tickets the day they went on sale in February. I made a prediction that on May 22, 2004 there would be a super outbreak in the midwest. So wouldn’t you know it, 2 months later and there’s an outbreak setup in the making. The morning Day 1 outlook had parts of NE/IA in a moderate risk. (later upgraded to a high risk) Some would call it irony, others would blame it on the many curses of the Cubs. I have a few choice words for it myself, but will refrain from using them at this time. 🙂

To make matters worse, the forecast for the game was not looking good. Radar was showing 2 bands of showers and thunderstorms heading right for Chicago. Due to the realistic chance that it might get rained out, I decided to drive my vehicle up just in case a chase presented itself to me. We loaded up and headed north to Chicago on I-57. My friends thought it was funny that some people were slowing down behind me because they thought I was a cop due to all the antennas on my car. (it’s kinda funny and annoying at the same time!) Anywho, as we got up to Chicago, the sun was out and the skies were partly cloudy. While we were wasting time, I got a text message on my phone regarding a severe thunderstorm watch that just happened to include Champaign. (it never fails!) Anywho, not wanting to drive all of our vehicles into the heart of Chicago, we dropped them off at one of their relative’s houses in Forest View, IL.

There’s just something about the 20th of the month this year that draws me to a chase. Today marked the third month in a row where I was considering a chase on the 20th of the month. (makes ya wonder doesn’t it?) Anywho, the main action looked to be in Iowa which obviously was way too far for me to go on a work day. The SPC day 1 outlook had most of Illinois in a slight risk, so while not a great chance it was a start. I was dying to chase even if the setup wasn’t the greatest, so I worked through lunch and left a little early from work.

I departed Champaign around 4:15PM and hopped on I-72 to head towards Bloomington. During the journey, I was socked in with clouds which didn’t make me too optimistic about severe weather occurring. Once I reached Bloomington, I headed north on I-39. As I traveled further north, the lovely sun began popping through which gave me a bit more confidence in our chances. Once I reached Peru, IL. around 6:00PM, I decided to hop on I-80 and head west. I made a pit stop in Spring Valley to grab a snack and to check data. The snack part worked out great, but data wasn’t as good. I tried to get online, but I was in a no-data zone. (drats!) I called up my pal Mike Cox to see if he could provide a little data to me. To my surprise, he was actually out chasing storms over in Iowa. As he was waiting on his storms to do stuff, he informed me that the storms I was interested in were still west of the Quad Cities.

Thanks to my dedication to watch my beloved Illini team lose in the sweet 16 to Duke, I passed up an opportunity to chase on Saturday in the plains. It would have been a good run to W. Oklahoma, but there’s always next time right? 🙂 Anyway, the same system that dropped 7 tornadoes in the Kansas/Oklahoma was heading my way on Sunday and that meant there was a slight chance we’d get something to chase here. Granted the system was weakening, but there was still a chance. The early morning SPC Day 1 outlook showed northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin in a slight risk for severe weather with the main threat damaging winds. (a whopping 2% tornado risk too!) I mulled over the forecast models and initially wanted to target somewhere between Peru and Bloomington Illinois. Unfortunately there was a lot of cloud cover from the leftover storms that was hindering our storm chances. (share the wealth people!)

I continued to monitor the situation throughout the day and there wasn’t much happening. I didn’t want to leave too early and go on some wild goose chase, yet I didn’t want to wait too long and miss something either. I decided to wait for the 2:00pm (20z) Day 1 outlook to see what the SPC was thinking. They ended up shifting the severe threat to eastern Illinois which kind of surprised me a bit. At this time, I started seeing some very small storms go up north of Bloomington and wondered if this was the beginning of the storms. I was ready to leave but not sure where to head. My initial target was too far west and a southern target didn’t have much instability and energy to work with. The best ingredients were along the NE IL/NW IN border, so I decided to head north to my popular destination of Kankakee. (must be a new theme to chase in the same area as many times as possible this year!)