ACUS01 KWNS 060049 SWODY1 SPC AC 060047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO VACATE THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NOAM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...FL... MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR S FL AND THE KEYS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER N SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED -- AND THUS WILL SHIFT THE 10% THUNDER LINE SWD TO INCLUDE ONLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ..GOSS.. 02/06/2012
ACUS02 KWNS 051715 SWODY2 SPC AC 051713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IN A DISORGANIZED FASHION. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK AND LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 02/05/2012
ACUS03 KWNS 050819 SWODY3 SPC AC 050818 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY...AMPLIFIED/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS/CANADA. DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A PORTION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WHILE A VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MOST AREAS...ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL CA. FOR CA COASTAL AREAS...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT...LIMITED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION INLAND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK. ..GUYER.. 02/05/2012
ACUS48 KWNS 050949 SWOD48 SPC AC 050948 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MID/LATE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH GRADUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH DAYS 5-6. BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...APPRECIABLE SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS UNLIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. ..GUYER.. 02/05/2012
FXUS63 KDVN 052337 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 537 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG REMAINS UNDER LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF IOWA. TRENDS SUPPORTS CLOUD BASES OF 300 TO 900 FEET ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 6 MILES DECREASING TO 1 TO 3 MILES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BRING IN MIXING AND DRIER AIR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 7 MILES FOR VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 07/06Z. ..NICHOLS.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SYNOPSIS... STRATUS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE DAY...WITH STRATUS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...NEARLY ALL OF IOWA...AND EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. IT HAS MAINLY AFFECTED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOSTLY IN THE CLEAR. THIS STRATUS IS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER KANSAS....WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST UP OVER IOWA AND EXTENDING UP INTO WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING... AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA TODAY INDICATE THAT WE HAVE A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 950MB...GENERALLY ABOUT 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION...WITH A STEEP INVERSION JUST ABOVE IT. AT UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND SNOW YESTERDAY OVER IOWA IS NOW SHIFTING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI. CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE RAIN IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. ..LE.. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY... STRATUS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS WE ARE USED TO DEPENDING UPON HAVE NOT EVEN INITIALIZED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS CORRECTLY. THUS...THESE MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE IN PREDICTING IT. OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ONLY THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE ANY SORT OF HANDLE ON THE STATUS OF THE STRATUS. THUS...BETWEEN IT...EXPERIENCE AND NOWCASTING TECHNIQUES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT FORECAST TOOLS TODAY. SINCE THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...ANTICIPATE THE STRATUS SHOULD REFORM AND SPREAD BACK SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING ALONG IN THE NORTHWEST 925MB FLOW. OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY THINGS SEEM TO HAVE CLEARED NICELY WHERE THESE WINDS TURNED WESTERLY AND THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT COULD HELP ACT TO DRY AND WARM THIS LAYER...HELPING TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT HELP US THIS FAR EAST AND THOUGH I EXPECT THE 925MB WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY FOR US AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE STRATUS LAST NIGHT MIN TEMPS ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SO HAVE CONTINUED THIS. MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OUT THIS BAND OF STRATUS. THE WESTERLY 925MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 925MB...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THAT LAYER SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE IT...ALONG WITH SHEER BODILY ADVECTION. IT IS NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO GET RID OF STRATUS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT THAT IS USUALLY DUE TO ESTABLISHED SNOWCOVER. HOPEFULLY WITH THE SNOW GONE FOR OUR AREA WE CAN GET RID OF THE STRATUS SOONER. ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS THERE COOLER...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE NORTHWEST IS TODAY. OTHERWISE...40-45 IS NOT UNREASONABLE AS LONG AS WE CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..LE.. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE MAINLY A DRY PERIOD. BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE COLD ADVECT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR SOUTH BUT EVEN THE ECM HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ONLY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS. WILL TRY TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST. MAX TEMPS ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TROUGH STRONGLY DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TIED TO A DEEP LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SENDS AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DVN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO OUR NORTH AND NO SNOW COVER IN THE DVN CWA THIS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY BUT SATURDAY WONT EXACTLY BE A PICNIC EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. WARM ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RETURNING SOUTH WINDS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY...NICE WARM-UP BEGINS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ..HAASE.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ NICHOLS
FXUS63 KLOT 060200 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 800 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... 740 PM CST QUIET EVENING TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WOBBLING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE HRR LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE STRATUS AND FOG WELL...THEREFORE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT A COMBINATION OF CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRR FORECAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...THINKING FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST ARE 5 MILES AND ABOVE...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING 3 MILES IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THE INCOMING STRATUS AND FOG...ITS FORECASTED TEMPS AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. WITH NO GOOD REASON TO ADJUST TEMPS...DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE. JEE && .PREV DISCUSSION... 257 PM CST PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE THEME OF THE FORECAST THIS NATIONAL WEATHERPERSON'S DAY COULD BE: STRATUS...THE BANE OF OUR WINTER EXISTENCE! STRATUS THAT ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MIXING OUT WITH BACKING FLOW STARTING TO PUSH WHATS LEFT OF IT OVER THE LAKE EASTWARD TOWARD MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...STRATUS OVER THE CORNBELT HAS HALTED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE SUN SETS EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO NOT ONLY RESUME ITS EASTWARD MOTION BUT DEVELOP/EXPAND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAN TO THE WEST SO DESPITE MODELS INSISTING CLEAR SKIES HAVE RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...AND OR STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA. HARD TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHETHER THERE WILL BE DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND WILL HIT IT IN THE HWO. MONDAY'S FORECAST HAS TREMENDOUS BUST POTENTIAL. PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT FOG/STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERING OUT SHOULD BE DOWNTOWN AND SE CWA. HAVE TAKEN A HATCHET TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AND NOW AM GOING BELOW ALL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IF STRATUS HANGS AROUND ALL DAY WOULD STILL BE TOO WARM AS EVIDENCED BY THE MID AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF IOWA WHERE STRATUS HAS PERSISTED. CONVERSELY...IF MODELS ARE RIGHT AND WE ACTUALLY ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW THEN HIGHS COULD EASILY PUSH 50F...SO THE RANGE IN PLAUSIBLE HIGHS TOMORROW IS NEARLY 20F! COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND USHERS IN A COLDER (WELL MORE SEASONABLE) AIRMASS. CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE MODELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH QPF AM STILL THINKING THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP PRODUCING A SWATH OF SOME (LIGHTLY) ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOMEWHAT TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURS NIGHT POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE REGION ITS FIRST DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS SINCE OUR ONE "COLD SPELL" THIS WINTER BACK IN MID JANUARY. IN ALMOST COMICAL FASHION THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OPPOSITE OF EACH OTHER RUN AFTER RUN WITH RESPECTS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL DOWN. ONE RUN THE ECMWF IS VERY COLD AND GFS MORE MODERATE AND THEN THE BOTH FLIP THE NEXT RUN. THE LATEST ITERATION FROM THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE MODERATE COOL DOWN IN GFS AND MORE FORCEFUL COLD SNAP IN THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT REGARDLESS HOW INTENSE THE COOL DOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE IF NOT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GRANTED CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS FAIRLY LOW AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * SKC FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...HOWEVER WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING TOWARDS IFR CONDS SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. * LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 5Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO ARND 500FT AGL ARND 8Z. * VSBYS WILL LOWER TO ARND 1SM...POSSIBLY FURTHER REDUCTION OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 1SM. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA/WESTERN WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA STEADILY SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THE DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS VERY WELL...SO SIDING MORE WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED...THIS AIRMASS SHOULD ARRIVE ARND MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL STEADILY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AND LOWER TO ARND 500FT AGL SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGEST FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1SM SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 1SM BY 8Z AT ALL AIRFIELDS...MAY BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KRFD. ONCE FOG AND STRATUS ARRIVE...EXPECT THIS AIRMASS WILL TAKE IT/S TIME IN DEPARTING MON. FOR NOW THE THOUGHT IS THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY COME UP BY 17Z MON...THEN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT BY 20Z. VSBYS SHUD COME UP SLOWLY AS WELL. IF WINDS ARE STRONGER MON MORNING...THEN EROSION AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH EARLIER. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS AND LOWERING CIGS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FORECAST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THRU DAYBREAK MON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AFT 16Z MON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING MON MIDDAY/AFTN. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN LGT SNOW EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 305 PM CST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY...WINDS HAVE REMAINED ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. ALTHOUGH...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF ALSO TO SEE THIS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SLOW...THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL GO FROM MORE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING...A COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO 30 KT. EXPECT THESE SPEEDS AND HIGHER WAVES FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KILX 052352 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 552 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 230 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS HELPING TO PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK OVERALL...WITH TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH STRATUS/FOG FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD INTO AND/OR INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE MAIN FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER... ONLY A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A CLUE THAT THE UPSTREAM STRATUS/FOG EVEN EXISTS. HAVE LARGELY DISCOUNTED ANY MODEL SOLUTION REGARDING THIS STRATUS/FOG...AND USED EXTRAPOLATION/CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO TRY AND PIN POINT HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE AREA. IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST... MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRETTY LARGE WITH HOW THE VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEK...AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTEX WILL DIP INTO THE MIDWEST. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NEAR SURFACE...ROUGHLY 1000 FOOT THICK STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND IS LIKELY AIDED BY A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW COVER IN THE AREA. THIS DECK HAS BEEN SINKING SOUTH TODAY WITH THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND HAS NOT DIMINISHED TO ANY LARGE DEGREE...AT LEAST TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING THE STRATUS/FOG WITH IT. THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN A FEW HOURS IS ALSO APT TO LET THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK SPREAD OUT LARGER THAN ITS CURRENT AREAL EXTENT. WHILE THE CLOUDS/FOG ARE LIKELY TO ONLY IMPACT WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...IT SHOULD SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW STARTS TURNING WESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT CLOUDS/FOG TO BREAK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...MUCH AS IS OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH MOST GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CUT HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY MONDAY. SKIES WILL NOT BE CLEAR VERY LONG AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY... BRINGING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO PICK UP AN ORPHANED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES... WHICH WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF THE ROCKIES WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO LOAD UP OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD...AND MOST MODELS HAVE AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. BAK && .AVIATION... ISSUED 552 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 SKIES WILL BEGIN AS CLEAR BUT CONCERN IS LARGE AREA OF IFR CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PIA 04Z...SPI 05Z...BMI 08Z AND DEC/CMI AT 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH CIGS BELOW 1KFT...WHILE VIS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. HRRR MODEL IS ONLY MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON THIS VERY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST AND FAR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GO. BUT FOLLOWING HRRR ALL SITES WILL SEE THIS ROLE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...GIVEN SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 052334 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 534 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... /200 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM FORECAST DILEMMA IS HOW TO HANDLE THE LIFR STRATUS THAT IS ADVECTING SOUTH FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND LAKE ENHANCED MVFR STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ATTM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LITTLE HELP AND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD LAYER WIND FORECAST. HAVE TIMED THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS DUE SOUTH AS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND REMAINS NORTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES WILL CEASE UPON SUNSET AND GIVEN MOIST GROUND...ANTICIPATE THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...RATHER THAN DISSIPATE. IN ADDITION...MVFR/IFR FOG EXISTS WITH THIS STRATUS...AND WILL BE ADDING FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE/ADVECT STRATUS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION FOR MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN CENTRAL MO. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. MODEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT DID NOT BITE ON LIKELY POPS ADVERTISED BY NAM. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN...BUT DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT AT LEAST IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS FIRST INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO TAKE UP SHOP NEAR THE HUDSON BAY BY WEEKS END. THIS IS USUALLY A STRONG SIGNAL OF POLAR IF NOT ARCTIC AIR BEING ALLOWED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS WE MAY FINALLY FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER AROUND HERE FOR A FEW DAYS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CVKING && .AVIATION... /506 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT AT UIN. AREA OF ST OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TONIGHT. BKN-OVC DECK SHUD REACH UIN BY 00Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SWD AND SHUD IMPACT CPS AND POSSIBLY SUS AROUND 12Z MON. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT FG/FZFG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENUF MIXING MAY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FROST RATHER THAN FG. CLOUDS SHUD CLEAR OUT OF UIN/CPS/SUS BY MID DAY WITH WLY TO SWLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. FG/FZFG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ST DECK OVER IA/NRN MO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND 12Z MON BEFORE LIFTING NWD AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W MON AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KTS. TILLY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 052338 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 538 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ST LOUIS AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA BY 12Z (6 AM) MONDAY. IN THE PROCESS...SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH IT...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK. PRECIP CHANCES MAY LINGER JUST PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 TROF PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TYPE A BIT TRICKY AT THIS POINT. GFS...SREF...AND ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SHOW THE COLD AIR COMING IN RATHER QUICKLY BUT THE NAM SERIES HOLDS THE COLD AIR AT BAY...AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE GRIDS DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND WITH A HEAVY LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY...WITH MODELS CRANKING OUT SUCH WIMPY QPF AMOUNTS...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN OR SNOW AMOUNTS. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS SHOWS ONLY A FEW BLIPS OF QPF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD BUT MINIMAL QPF. IN EITHER CASE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH ITS APPROACH...SO ANY CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEM TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THIS TROF...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BOTH ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CLEARING LINE WAS FROM KFAM TO KHSB TO KEVV MOVING SOUTH JUST UNDER 10 MPH. SHALLOW RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CLEARING LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF KCGI TO NEAR K2I0. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 02/03Z AT KEVV AND KOWB. AT KPAH AND KCGI THIS EVENING...LOW END MVFR TO IFR WITH POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AFTER 06/07Z. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR. QUIET WX MONDAY...WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND PERHAPS FEW CU/STRATO-CU. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KDVN 051014 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 414 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061015- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 414 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ SHEETS
FLUS43 KLOT 052121 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 062130- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 /421 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-062130- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-062130- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ IZZI
FLUS43 KILX 052128 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 328 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-062-061200- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR- FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN- MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK- TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 328 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ063-066>068-071>073-061200- CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND- 328 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WABASH RIVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER BASIN NEAR CLAY CITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ HJS
FLUS43 KLSX 052028 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 228 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 228 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ CVKING
FLUS43 KPAH 051006 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WABASH RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOODING ON THE WABASH AND MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KTOP 052326 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 526 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... && .AVIATION... ONLY CONCERN IS FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLUMN IS VERY DRY ALOFT AND SNOW IS CONSIDERABY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...SO ANTICIPATE IT TO REMAIN SHALLOW. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS NORTHWEST SHIFTING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. 67 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT RANGE FORECAST (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINY AND SNOWY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT NOW MOVES THOUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. H5 SADDLE POINT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. GIVEN GOOD SUNLIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT EVAPORATION FROM RECENT RAINS THE COOL CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BRING SOME PATCHY SHALLOW MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY TO LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE DERIVED FROM MIXING THE ATMOSPHERE TO AROUND 900 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KEPT TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE AIR MASS BEING MODIFIED BY SNOW COVER. JL TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING IN FROM NORTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY OVER THE WASATCH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OFF THE TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE OPEN WAVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BETTER QG FORCING WILL SPLIT WITH THE MAIN TROF WITH BETTER FORCING OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...SOME DECENT OMEGA NOTED OVER THE CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM TUESDAY MORNING. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. PV ANOMALY NOT QUITE AS STRONG IN THE FIRST WAVE AS DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS MODELS...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MAINLY WEST OF HWY 99. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES...AND WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH AN UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME OF AROUND 2G/KG MIXING RATIO THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH. THEREFORE...BEGAN TO END PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SPLIT ENERGY FROM MAIN TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND THUS KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT. IF LOW LEVEL LIFT IS A BIT STRONGER IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG PV ANOMALY...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS H5 UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST. EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH WITH THE FAST UPPER FLOW. NEXT SURFACE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO REMAINED WITH A DRY FORECAST. NEXT SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20'S AND HIGHS IN THE 30'S AND 40'S. SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. BYRNE && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KICT 060002 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 602 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DRIER SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. KED && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST HEADLINE: NEXT CHANCE FOR -SN STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & W OF I-135 LATE MON NGT THEN SPREAD E TO ~KS TURNPIKE TUE MORNING. TONIGHT & MON: QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER ALL AREAS AS BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREADS E ACROSS CNTRL & SRN PLAINS. ALL FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST APPEAR ON TARGET. MON NGT-TUE NGT: THESE TO BE MOST CHALLENGING PERIODS OF FORECAST. WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LVL TROF VENTURING E FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS LATE MON NGT & TUE. AS PATTERN EVOLVES A WELL-DEFINED THETA E AXIS DEVELOPS & PUNCHES NE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY & COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION ENSUING -SN STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS VERY LATE MON NGT/VERY EARLY TUE MORNING. LIFT IS FEEBLE & THEREFORE NO ACCUMULATION WOULD RESULT. LWR-DECK TEMPS NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THEY WOULD NO DOUBT DETERMINE PRECIP MODE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE HEART OF KICT COUNTRY. LITTLE DOUBT -SN TO OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL KS ON TUE WITH A TRANSITION FROM A -RA/-SN MIXTURE TO -RA ALONG & SE OF TURNPIKE. FOR NOW HAVE PAINTED A SW-NE "BUFFER ZONE" THROUGH THE HEART OF OF THE CWA FOR MOST OF TUE. TUE EVENING THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-LVL TROF SHEARS GREATLY AS IT CROSSES THE MS VALLEY BUT SHOULD POSSESS SUFFICIENT KICK TO FORCE THE COLD FRONT OUT OF SE KS LATE TUE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED -RA TO SE KS EARLY TUE EVENING. REST OF THE WEEK: QUIET WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS NW REGIME DOMINATES ENABLING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SPREAD SE ACROSS KS NEIGHBORHOOD DURING MID-WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT VENTURES SE ACROSS KS LATE THU NGT BUT MOISTURE LACKING...SO NO MORE THAN A SW-NW WIND SHIFT WOULD SIGNAL THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. FIRE WEATHER... FOCUS IS ON TUE WHEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CNTRL KS IN THE MORNING THEN SURGE SE ACROSS SC & SE KS AS DAY PROGRESSES. A SW-NLY WIND SHIFT IS SURE TO OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT JUST AS IMPORTANT IS THAT -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS ALONG & W OF I-135 TUE MORNING WITH A -RA/ -SN MIXTURE FOR REMAINING AREAS. A CHANGEOVER TO -AR SHOULD OCCUR OVER MOST AREAS TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION WOULD LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES. AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 10 MPH AND SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY MID MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 24 51 32 41 / 0 0 10 40 HUTCHINSON 23 51 32 36 / 0 0 20 40 NEWTON 24 50 31 38 / 0 0 10 40 ELDORADO 24 50 32 42 / 0 0 10 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 24 51 32 46 / 0 0 10 40 RUSSELL 19 50 26 30 / 0 0 20 40 GREAT BEND 20 50 27 31 / 0 0 20 50 SALINA 22 52 30 34 / 0 0 20 40 MCPHERSON 23 51 31 35 / 0 0 20 40 COFFEYVILLE 23 51 33 50 / 0 0 0 30 CHANUTE 23 51 33 46 / 0 0 0 30 IOLA 24 50 32 45 / 0 0 0 30 PARSONS-KPPF 22 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDDC 052303 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 503 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 452 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TONIGHT: EXTREMELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CLOUDS JUST A BIT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE DENSE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR SO ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LAST NIGHT REVEALED A SLIGHT WARM BIAS. UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S DEG F ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MONDAY: A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM BY NOON TOMORROW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 50S DEG F EXCEPT AROUND SNOW COVERED COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 70. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...TOMORROW SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE MAIN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL STILL BE WEST OF SW KANSAS. MONDAY NIGHT: THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12Z GUIDANCE IS COMING IN QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SO HAVE RAMPED POPS QUICKER AND TAMPERED THEM OFF SOONER ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MOST OF THE QPF ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN AS A RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT EVEN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS A RESULT OF WET BULBING. FURTHER NW, THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD BE WELL SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY WITH THIS QUICK (PROGRESSIVE) WAVE. WILL NOT ISSUE AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT. TUESDAY: THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF SW KANSAS BY NOON TUESDAY. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT SO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S DEG F A EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER AS WILL AS PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY AND HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. -SUGDEN .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...COOL POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING THE DDC FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW. A 1035-1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY YIELDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE MID 30S MOST EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A FRESH INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COVER FROM TUESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM. GOING INTO THE LATE WEEK (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA...ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO JET STREAM BRANCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BUT WILL STILL HELP KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM ESCAPING THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THICKNESSES /THERMAL FIELDS RISING TO SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE ECMWF THAT MEAN TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY DEEP LEESIDE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (FEB 13-15)...AND PERHAPS STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 452 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 VFR AVIATION WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AROUND 15Z MONDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME 13 TO 15 KTS AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 100-120 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 21 50 26 32 / 0 20 30 40 GCK 21 50 24 31 / 0 20 40 20 EHA 23 50 24 33 / 0 20 40 20 LBL 21 52 25 35 / 0 20 30 30 HYS 19 48 24 29 / 0 20 40 30 P28 24 52 30 37 / 0 10 30 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...12 SYNOPSIS...36 SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...12
FXUS63 KGLD 052314 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 414 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)... 226 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL AIM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT GIVEN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MESOSCALE...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...ELSEWHERE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. 007 MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING DOWN FAR ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE A DRY ENVIRONMENT FROM 700MB TO THE SURFACE WHICH MAY LEAD TO VIRGA INSTEAD OF PRECIPITATING. MONDAY NIGHT FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST LONGEST LASTING FRONTOGENESIS OVER AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE NIGHT AS 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE COOLER AIR UP THROUGH 800MB BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. TUESDAY WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN 850MB RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SMALL. JTL .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)... 226 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OVER MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVE EAST. && .AVIATION... 414 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY REACHING THE DEW POINT BUT DEW POINTS DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...FOG IS AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT DECREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES VFR AT THE TERMINALS. CJS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 052303 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 503 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE THIS EVENING WILL CREATE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT THE TAF SITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW PACKED GROUND WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HINT AT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS LOWER VISIBILITIES BEGINNING NEAR 0Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DECIDED TO KEEP A HINT OF VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAF BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY HOW LOW VISIBILITIES COULD DROP WITH CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH SUNRISE SHOULD CLEAR ALL REMNANTS OF FOG AND INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS TO NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DOESNT GET MUCH MORE TRANQUIL THAN WHAT THE CWA HAS SEEN TODAY...WITH A QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SITTING UNDER WEAK RIDGING AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER NEAR SERN MO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A GREAT VIEW OF THE SNOWPACK FROM THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM...WITH THE CWA CLOUD FREE AS THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS REMAINED CLOSER TO THE MO RIVER REGION. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NWRN KS...BRINGING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND...PLENTY OF SUN HELPING TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S...AND EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENDING UP CENTERED OVER NRN TX BY 12Z MONDAY. SITTING BETWEEN THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY WINDS INTO TOMORROW. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...WITH LOWER/MID TEENS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT REALLY SHOWING IT...BUT MODEL DATA FROM THE NAM/RUC/HRRR DOES SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING THIS EVENING...AND FELT THAT WITH SNOW MELTING TODAY THAT ITS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE COMPLETELY LIGHT/VARIABLE. SPEEDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TWEAKED HIGHS UP A BIT FOR MONDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...CONTINUE TO SEE WRLY WINDS...AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON KNOWN HAVE REACHED ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...CALLING FOR SIMILAR TEMPS TOMORROW. LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL OPEN UP AND SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AM AGAIN FOLLOWING MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...TRANSITIONING TO ECMWF ENSEMBLES TOWARD LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL PREFERENCE FOR THIS WINTER SEASON AS THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...LATCHED ONTO THE PERSISTENT LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS SEASON COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKES ME LIKE THE ECMWF THAT MUCH MORE. THE POLAR VORTEX IS SO FAR NORTH THAT MUCH OF ANY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYS TO COME FOR MOST OF THE CWA DUE LARGELY TO WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED QPF FOR TUESDAY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED YESTERDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN CONTRAST HAVE A MARKED INCREASE IN CHANCES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. ALSO...TRUE TO TYPICAL FORM...THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FOR QPF WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMPT ME TO KEEP OUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FOCUS ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. I STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND DO NOT PLAN TO GO MUCH HIGHER WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN INHERITED IN THE FORECAST. THE OPENING POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE FAR-REMOVED POLAR VORTEX TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A PUNCH OF COOLER AIR...BUT HARDLY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WITH THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY SOLID CLOUD COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND SNOW COVER...THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND...SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. ESSENTIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL GO NOWHERE FROM MORNING LOWS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVELS COULD BE DRY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY POST- FRONTAL. I AM A BIT MORE TROUBLED BY A WARMING TREND OF TEMPERATURES AT THESE MID-LEVELS THAT COULD INDICATE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET...BUT PLAN VIEWS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW BEING THE OVERWHELMINGLY PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE IF NOT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS NOT A SCENARIO THAT IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...WITH A POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...SO I DO NOT PLAN ON INTRODUCING ANYTHING OTHER THAN SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS A QUICKLY-MOVING AND RELATIVELY BENIGN-LOOKING WAVE HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING OVER HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY TANK AS A THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA ABOUT THE TIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED...AND WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR MANY AREAS...THIS WILL BE CHILLY...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT I DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A HUGE ISSUE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES IN FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS TRENDING ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX...WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR. TRENDED QUITE A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY HIGHS WITH 20S EXPECTED NOW. SHOULD GET A WARM-UP BY SATURDAY. AGAIN...WILL GENERALLY GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF ALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA...MOSTLY DUE TO SNOW COVER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...SALTZMAN SHORT...ADO LONG...HEINLEIN
FLUS43 KTOP 052127 HWOTOP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 327 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-062130- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 327 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KICT 052330 HWOICT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 530 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062330- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 530 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING...THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD 1 INCH OR LESS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP $$ ES
FLUS43 KDDC 051616 HWODDC HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1016 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061100- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 1016 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 /916 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MAY PROMOTE SOME LIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC $$ UMSCHEID
FLUS43 KGLD 050943 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 243 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061345- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 243 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 /343 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KGID 050919 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 319 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 061200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 319 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NEBRASKA TO BELOIT KANSAS...WITH LESSER TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS63 KGRR 052348 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 640 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH A WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY EXPECTED MONDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...WE SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE THAT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL FILTER COLDER AIR IN FOR MID WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 30S FOR MID WEEK AND IN THE 20S BY FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FOR DAYS AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. A BATCH OF STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND FEEL IT...ALONG WITH CLOUDS/MOISTURE UPSTREAM WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ESSENTIALLY ENVISION A GRADUAL EXPANSION TO THE EAST OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE AND POINTS FURTHER WEST. RUC HAS SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON THIS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE AT THIS POINT. THE STRATUS LATELY HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ITS EVOLUTION. LOOKING FOR MORNING CLOUDS TO LIFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. HIGH SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW...SO EXPECTING IT TO COME THROUGH FOR THE MOST PART DRY. DO HAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS DELTA T/S CREEP ABOVE 13 DEGREES C. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE FLOW IS TRENDING NORTHEAST/OFF SHORE. LOWER TROP DRIES OUT FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE LAKE INSTABILITY. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD END UP IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON WED. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WAVE MISSING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE A WAVE THAT WILL BE GETTING READY TO DROP SE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND DRY AND COOLER AIR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING FROM NRN CANADA SHOULD BE THE CAUSE FOR A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER ON THU FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING IN A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE AREA. H850 TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS C. UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRI AND INTO SAT...AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A BIG EVENT. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE MOST OF THE TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE DECENT FRI MORNING. THERE IS EVEN POTENTIAL PER THE NEW 12Z EURO WHERE THE FLOW WOULD END UP FROM THE NE...AND WE WOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW LIFTING OUT BY SUN MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA THAT HELPS TO SEND THE ARCTIC AIR DOWN GETS FLATTENED BY A STRONG PACIFIC JET EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS SHOULD SHIFT OUR FLOW TO A MORE MILD AND ZONAL PATTERN OFF OF THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(640 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) A DIMINISHING BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WAS COMING ASHORE NEAR KMKG AND KBIV. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE TAF SITES AS IT HEADS EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEN A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. FOG MAY DEVELOP AS WELL PRIOR TO THE SECONDARY CLOUD DECKS ARRIVAL. WITH SOME WIND...THIS RISK IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT THIS POINT. && .MARINE...(400 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. ONLY RAN THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT THIS POINT TO SEE EXACTLY HOW THE WINDS ARE GOING TO PLAY OUT POST FROPA. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS THE WAVE FIELD...EVEN IN NORTHEAST FLOW...PROPAGATES INTO OUR NEARSHORE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012) RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR IONIA AND BURLINGTON HAVE BEEN DROPPED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH VICKSBURG THE ONLY ONE REMAIN. LIMITED HYDRO CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. RIVER ICE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WE ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOE TO MANISTEE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. && $$ SYNOPSIS: DUKE SHORT TERM: DUKE LONG TERM: NJJ AVIATION: MJS MARINE: DUKE HYDROLOGY: DUKE
FXUS63 KIWX 052055 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 355 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING SEVERAL STRONG SHRTWV'S DIGGING SE ACROSS NRN CANADA TODAY WHICH ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP UPR LOW OVER NE CANADA AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALONG THE WRN NOAM COAST BY MID-WEEK. LEAD SHRTWV MOVG INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASK TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM/DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER SRN ALBERTA. THIS AIRMASS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AHEAD OF THE SFC CDFNT INTO THE SRN GRTLKS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE TEMPS EVEN A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY... HWVR... HRR INDICATING THAT THE LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER MN/IA WILL ADVECT/EXPAND E-SE TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT EAST INTO OUR AREA MONDAY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER CONDITIONS THAN INDICATED BY GFS/NAM/MOS. FOR TONIGHT... SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH AREA OF STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SE AND MAY IMPACT THE NW PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. BUT OVERALL GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SWLY GRADIENT INCREASES. CONTD WITH FCST OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER ALL OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTN EXCEPT HEDGED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE WEST GIVEN EARLIER STATED CONCERNS ABOUT UPSTREAM STRATUS. GOING HIGHS IN THE M40S SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER TEMPS THAT WAA AND INCREASED MIXING COULD ALLOW AND THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY IF IA STRATUS DECK REACHES THIS FAR EAST. PREFER SLOWER GFS/SREF SHRTWV/CDFNT TIMING WITH FRONT MOVG INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED/FOLLOWED BY A LOW CLOUD DECK. NAM MORE MOIST IN LOW LEVELS (AS USUAL) BEHIND THIS FRONT SUGGESTING SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES PSBL...HELD OFF ADDING MENTION ATTM. && .LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS STILL ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES...FOLLOWED BY DEEPER TROUGH...ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON ARRIVAL OF FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR TO BRING THE REGION BACK TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WITH COLD AIR STILL OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH THE AREA BY 12Z WEDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE -8 TO -10 CELSIUS RANGE TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING WAVE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC/CHC POPS OF SNOW TUES NGT/WEDS UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WHEN PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE LAKE BASED AND SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS. BRIEF RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC FRONT POISED TO HEAD FOR THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THEN TRANSITION EAST. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WITH GEFS/ECMWF SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS MORE IN THE -14 TO -17 C RANGE...WHICH WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE EASTWARD SLIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THE COLD AIR WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW WITH MODERATION ALREADY UNDERWAY INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK BACK TO NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT CHANCES WILL EXIST IN FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SLGT/CHC WARRANTED AT THIS TIME WITH MANY QUESTIONS AS TO HOW TRAJECTORIES AND LL MSTR WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION... VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS FOG/STRATUS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NW INDIANA SHRINKING AND WITH RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN SBN VSBY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THERE BY 19Z. BULK OF STRATO CU NORTH AND WEST OF SBN SHOULD REMAIN THERE BUT DID ADD A SCT015 CLOUD THIS AFTN AS SBN WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST AT FWA. WK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. PRBLY WONT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING AS SUNSHINE SHOULD DRY OUT BOUNDARY LAYER SOME TODAY AND SWLY GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...FISHER AVIATION...JT
FXUS63 KLOT 060200 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 800 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... 740 PM CST QUIET EVENING TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE WOBBLING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE HRR LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE STRATUS AND FOG WELL...THEREFORE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT A COMBINATION OF CURRENT TRENDS AND THE HRR FORECAST. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...THINKING FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST ARE 5 MILES AND ABOVE...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING 3 MILES IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THE INCOMING STRATUS AND FOG...ITS FORECASTED TEMPS AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW. WITH NO GOOD REASON TO ADJUST TEMPS...DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE. JEE && .PREV DISCUSSION... 257 PM CST PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TODAY REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE THEME OF THE FORECAST THIS NATIONAL WEATHERPERSON'S DAY COULD BE: STRATUS...THE BANE OF OUR WINTER EXISTENCE! STRATUS THAT ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MIXING OUT WITH BACKING FLOW STARTING TO PUSH WHATS LEFT OF IT OVER THE LAKE EASTWARD TOWARD MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...STRATUS OVER THE CORNBELT HAS HALTED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE SUN SETS EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO NOT ONLY RESUME ITS EASTWARD MOTION BUT DEVELOP/EXPAND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THAN TO THE WEST SO DESPITE MODELS INSISTING CLEAR SKIES HAVE RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...AND OR STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN CWA. HARD TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE WHETHER THERE WILL BE DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND WILL HIT IT IN THE HWO. MONDAY'S FORECAST HAS TREMENDOUS BUST POTENTIAL. PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT FOG/STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERING OUT SHOULD BE DOWNTOWN AND SE CWA. HAVE TAKEN A HATCHET TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS TOMORROW AND NOW AM GOING BELOW ALL GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IF STRATUS HANGS AROUND ALL DAY WOULD STILL BE TOO WARM AS EVIDENCED BY THE MID AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 20S OVER MUCH OF IOWA WHERE STRATUS HAS PERSISTED. CONVERSELY...IF MODELS ARE RIGHT AND WE ACTUALLY ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW THEN HIGHS COULD EASILY PUSH 50F...SO THE RANGE IN PLAUSIBLE HIGHS TOMORROW IS NEARLY 20F! COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND USHERS IN A COLDER (WELL MORE SEASONABLE) AIRMASS. CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR POST FRONTAL STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE MODELS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH QPF AM STILL THINKING THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP PRODUCING A SWATH OF SOME (LIGHTLY) ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SOMEWHAT TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURS NIGHT POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE REGION ITS FIRST DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS SINCE OUR ONE "COLD SPELL" THIS WINTER BACK IN MID JANUARY. IN ALMOST COMICAL FASHION THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OPPOSITE OF EACH OTHER RUN AFTER RUN WITH RESPECTS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL DOWN. ONE RUN THE ECMWF IS VERY COLD AND GFS MORE MODERATE AND THEN THE BOTH FLIP THE NEXT RUN. THE LATEST ITERATION FROM THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE MODERATE COOL DOWN IN GFS AND MORE FORCEFUL COLD SNAP IN THE ECMWF. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT REGARDLESS HOW INTENSE THE COOL DOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE IF NOT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GRANTED CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS FAIRLY LOW AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z... * SKC FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...HOWEVER WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING TOWARDS IFR CONDS SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. * LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM SHOULD ARRIVE ARND 5Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO ARND 500FT AGL ARND 8Z. * VSBYS WILL LOWER TO ARND 1SM...POSSIBLY FURTHER REDUCTION OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 1SM. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA/WESTERN WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA STEADILY SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THE DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS VERY WELL...SO SIDING MORE WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED...THIS AIRMASS SHOULD ARRIVE ARND MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL STEADILY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST AND LOWER TO ARND 500FT AGL SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUGGEST FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1SM SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 1SM BY 8Z AT ALL AIRFIELDS...MAY BE SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KRFD. ONCE FOG AND STRATUS ARRIVE...EXPECT THIS AIRMASS WILL TAKE IT/S TIME IN DEPARTING MON. FOR NOW THE THOUGHT IS THAT CIGS WILL SLOWLY COME UP BY 17Z MON...THEN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT BY 20Z. VSBYS SHUD COME UP SLOWLY AS WELL. IF WINDS ARE STRONGER MON MORNING...THEN EROSION AND IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MUCH EARLIER. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS AND LOWERING CIGS. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY FORECAST. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THRU DAYBREAK MON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AFT 16Z MON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING MON MIDDAY/AFTN. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN LGT SNOW EARLY. THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 305 PM CST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY...WINDS HAVE REMAINED ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. ALTHOUGH...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS SHIFTED ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF ALSO TO SEE THIS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SLOW...THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL GO FROM MORE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING...A COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO 30 KT. EXPECT THESE SPEEDS AND HIGHER WAVES FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND OCCURS. RODRIGUEZ && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KIND 060153 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 853 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO COVER INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVERHEAD LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE AT THE SURFACE SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD STAY SMALL. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... MAIN ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES AND FOG AS MODELS AND OBS ALL SUPPORT CLEAR TONIGHT. AT 01Z WINDS IN OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. RUC SAYS THIS WILL WORK EASTWARD AND ALMOST COMPLETELY KILL OUR WINDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH THAT AND OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES BELOW THE HOURLY GRIDS...I AM GOING TO DROP MINS TONIGHT ABOUT A CATEGORY. CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND FAVORS FOG TONIGHT. BUFKIT SHOWS MOISTURE DECREASING RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT...A NEGATIVE. WITH OFFSETTING FACTORS I WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT WONT MENTION DENSE. GIVEN DAMP GROUND WE MIGHT GET FOG OUTSIDE THE COMMON LOW SPOTS...SO I WILL CHANGE COVERAGE TO AREAS FROM PATCHY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTH BUT THAT/S IT AS FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND BRING SOME FORCING TO THE AREA THAT COULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING...BUT THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE SREFS/GFS/ECMWF ALL POINTING TO SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND ONLY THE NAM HOLDING ON TO PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SINCE THERE IS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT UPPER FORCING IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE. SOUNDINGS FOR THAT TIME SUGGEST SNOW AS THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD IT OCCUR. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THERE. THE EXCEPTION IS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COLD ADVECTION IS IN PLACE AN 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW -10C OVER THE AREA. THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TOO HIGH GIVEN THE ABOVE AND INSTEAD WENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND ECM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH EACH RUN AND ALL BLEND ONLY GIVES A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE AT MOST OF PRECIP THOSE PERIODS. AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP AS NOW DRY THROUGH THE PERIODS AND THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TO KEY ON. MODELS MOVE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ALL BLEND PARAMETERS. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 06/00Z TAFS/... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN...ERODING ANY LEFTOVER CLOUD...AND ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH A LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM. WILL INCLUDE SOME HIGH END MVFR FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY PESSIMISTIC. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE...GFS/SREF SOUNDINGS DO NOT. NAM SOUNDING IS MOST FAVORABLE...BUT ITS MOS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT MENTIONS ANY RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY AND IT ONLY GOES DOWN TO 5SM. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW BUT REMAINING BELOW 10KT. MAY SEE INFREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE LOW TEENS BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JK SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....JH AVIATION...NIELD
FXUS61 KILN 060019 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 719 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... ANY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EARLY EVENING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN CWA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS TO HOW LOW MIN TEMPS WILL GET TONIGHT. EXPECT COLD AIR DRAINAGES SUCH AS THE HOCKING HILLS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MOST LOCATIONS...AS EVIDENCED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM THE SE SIDE OF COLUMBUS AND FOLLOWING A WSW ROUTE THROUGH THE FORECAST OFFICE TOWARDS BUTLER COUNTY. SOME SPOTS ALONG AREA RIDGES MAY ALSO DROP TOWARDS THE MID 20S AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE TOP DOWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRY TO PUSH INTO THE 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS IN KENTUCKY. EXPECT A GRADUAL BUT NEAR TOTAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE SURFACE FORCING. A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY REAL PRECIPITATION IS MINOR UNTIL THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES IN AFTER THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FELL WITHIN A 1-2 DEGREE RANGE OF WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF...12Z ECMWF AND NCEP HPC GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS SOME CONTINUITY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FIRST EMBEDDED S/WV WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE REGION AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER S/WV LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR LIMITED WITH THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ATTM. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SRN/SERN CWFA WHICH SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH RAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST EXITING S/WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE VARYING SIGNALS CONCERNING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE KEPT POPS QUITE LOW FOR NOW. DEEP UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO YO-YO IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR WILL SEEP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION...SO THE BLEND OF MODELS SHOULD GIVE THE BEST FORECAST ATTM. DEEP UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF NORMAL UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. LOW LEVELS REALLY DRIED OUT ACROSS THE SRN OHIO THIS AFTN...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S. FEEL THAT THIS WILL MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT...EXCEPT AT THE TWO FOGGIER LOCATIONS OF LUK AND ILN. KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN A TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY...MODELS DEVELOP AN H5 S/W IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS S/W WORKS UP THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY. H8 MOISTURE WORKS ITSELF BACK NORTH A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...BUT DONT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK. DIDNT ADD ANOTHER GROUP TO COVER THESE SCT CLOUDS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES
FXUS63 KLMK 052326 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 626 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term (Tonight and Monday)... An upper low over eastern MO this afternoon is scheduled to strengthen and move east over the area Monday. As it approaches tonight, enough low level moisture may be present over south central KY for some isld light rain showers or drizzle. That should not last long, however, as drier air continues to invade from the north. After midnight fog will become a concern across the area. Dry air advection from the north and lingering low level clouds across the south would help prevent fog. However, given plentiful low level moisture, calm winds, good rad cooling and inversion (especially over the north) feel that at least a patchy fog mention is in order. MAVMOS guidance indicates some locations over the northern half of the forecast area that clear early in the evening will have the potential for dense fog. Not that confident yet to insert dense fog into the forecast, but it is a possibility and something to re-evaluate this evening. Low temps should drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s overnight. For Monday, expect a mostly to partly sunny day. A few more clouds are expected over KY due to moisture around the passing upper low. However, no precip is expected. The cold core of the upper low should limit highs to around 50. .Long Term (Monday night - Sunday)... High pressure will build into the region Monday night as the upper low pushes east of the region. Thus, dry conditions should last through much of Tuesday. However, a pattern change will take place from midweek on as a large upper trough takes over the eastern half of the U.S. This will allow a few disturbances to traverse the Lower Ohio Valley region, but more notably bring colder than normal temperatures by late in the week and over the weekend. The first disturbance will be a weak low ejecting out of the Rockies on Tuesday, getting caught up in the larger-scale trough diving southeast across the Great Lakes. This will affect our region mainly on Wednesday, though the short-range models have sped up and are hinting at light precip approaching Tuesday night. Regardless of the timing, moisture isn't that deep with this system, and none of the models show more than a few hundredths other than the 12z Euro so precipitation will be rather light. Temperature profiles also indicate that any light precip that falls would be a rain/snow mix or just snow showers late Tuesday night. With the cold upper trough pushing through Wednesday during the day, either a rain/snow mix or probably just snow showers would occur since the warm surface layer is very shallow. But with warm grounds, and not much QPF anyways, no snow would accumulate should it occur. Will keep the slight chance POPs in through Wednesday. Flurries may linger Wednesday night over the eastern CWA, but have left out at this point. The second main disturbance will be a cold front swinging through on Friday from a surface low that will develop over the northeastern U.S. downstream of the deep and cold eastern CONUS trough. Moisture lacks even more with this front and really don't think we'll get anything more than sprinkles from this. However, for consistency sake, left the slight chance POPs in over mainly the eastern CWA as orographic lift may help yield a shower or two. Otherwise, this front should usher in the coldest temps for the long term, with dry conditions through Sunday behind the front. Just how cold will it get? Well not that cold really. Tuesday will be the warmest day ahead of the upper low pushing through. Highs should climb into the upper 40s and lower-mid 50s, dropping into the upper 30s and lower-mid 40s for highs on Wednesday behind the system. Temps will rebound slightly on Thursday ahead of a cold front, with highs into the mid-upper 40s. Highs should still reach the 40s Friday before dropping behind the cold front. Highs Saturday will struggle to make it out of the 30s, with slightly warmer conditions Sunday with high pressure moving in. Lows will generally be near freezing, except for Saturday and Sunday mornings, where lows will could drop to the low 20s. && .Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)... A challenging forecast, especially in terms of visibility. Low stratus deck that plagued us for much of the day will continue to move south this evening, with the back edge of the deck progged to pass BWG around or slightly after 03Z. At BWG this low deck will be replaced by a low-end VFR ceiling that will last through much of the TAF period as an upper low moves from St Louis to Wheeling. The clouds have already cleared SDF and LEX, and mostly clear skies are expected to continue for at least several hours. This raises the possibility of fog. Model data are in two camps: one without fog and one which brings vsbys down to the deck. At this time it appears that some patchy dense fog will be possible in valleys and other rural fog prone locations in north central Kentucky with lesser chances of dense fog at the terminals. A nose of drier surface dew points reaching from New York to southeast Illinois late this afternoon is expected to sink south tonight, reaching SDF and LEX by the 10Z-12Z time range, right when fog would be the most likely to form. At SDF: fog may form along the Ohio River but should mostly stay away from the airfield. At this time will bring in some BR but keep it MVFR. At LEX: Blue Grass Field stands the best shot of all three sites to fog in. However those drier dew points plus a light downsloping east wind bringing slightly larger dew point depressions in from the city may help to temper fog development, so will stay IFR for now in the TAF. Will also introduce scattered LIFR STFR to accompany the fog, which could become a ceiling if the fog forms more solidly than currently forecast. At BWG: Maybe a little MVFR BR, but BKN/OVC ceilings should prevent any significant fog there, despite its proclivity to fog in easily. Drier low level dew points will continue to move in on Monday, allowing any fog to dissipate. The aforementioned upper low will cross overhead during the afternoon/evening hours, and my result in an increase in cloudiness especially at BWG and secondarily at LEX, but ceilings will remain VFR. Wind is not much of an issue, with light and variable breezes tonight into Monday morning becoming west under 10 knots by afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. $$ Short Term.......AMS Long Term........AL Aviation.........13
FXUS63 KPAH 052338 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 538 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ST LOUIS AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA BY 12Z (6 AM) MONDAY. IN THE PROCESS...SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH IT...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK. PRECIP CHANCES MAY LINGER JUST PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 TROF PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TYPE A BIT TRICKY AT THIS POINT. GFS...SREF...AND ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SHOW THE COLD AIR COMING IN RATHER QUICKLY BUT THE NAM SERIES HOLDS THE COLD AIR AT BAY...AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE GRIDS DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND WITH A HEAVY LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY...WITH MODELS CRANKING OUT SUCH WIMPY QPF AMOUNTS...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN OR SNOW AMOUNTS. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS SHOWS ONLY A FEW BLIPS OF QPF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD BUT MINIMAL QPF. IN EITHER CASE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH ITS APPROACH...SO ANY CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEM TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THIS TROF...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BOTH ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CLEARING LINE WAS FROM KFAM TO KHSB TO KEVV MOVING SOUTH JUST UNDER 10 MPH. SHALLOW RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CLEARING LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF KCGI TO NEAR K2I0. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 02/03Z AT KEVV AND KOWB. AT KPAH AND KCGI THIS EVENING...LOW END MVFR TO IFR WITH POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AFTER 06/07Z. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR. QUIET WX MONDAY...WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND PERHAPS FEW CU/STRATO-CU. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KGRR 052048 HWOGRR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 348 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-062100- MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON- MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON- INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 348 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ LMZ844>849-062100- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI- 348 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL BECOME A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ NJJ
FLUS43 KIWX 051729 HWOIWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-061730- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 /1129 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE COLDER AIR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$ LMZ043-046-061730- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 1229 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND MID WEEK AND ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$
FLUS43 KLOT 052121 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 062130- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 /421 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-062130- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-062130- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 321 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ IZZI
FLUS43 KIND 052237 HWOIND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 537 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-061>065-068>072-062245- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR- DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- 537 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG. HAZARDS: VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG PATCHES. TIMING: AFTER 3 AM. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG MAY LAST UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ INZ060-067-062245- SULLIVAN-KNOX- 537 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG. LOWLAND FLOODING. HAZARDS: VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG PATCHES. LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH AND WHITE RIVERS. TIMING: FOG AFTER 3 AM. LOWLAND FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. RIVER FLOODING IS THE RESULT OF PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG MAY LAST UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SEE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAIL. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ JK
FLUS41 KILN 051455 HWOILN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 955 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-061500- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 955 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ HATZOS
FLUS43 KLMK 051950 HWOLMK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 250 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-062000- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY- CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 250 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012 /150 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ AMS
FLUS43 KPAH 051006 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WABASH RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOODING ON THE WABASH AND MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KARX 060000 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 600 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 340 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 AT 3 PM...A 1033 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION HAS KEPT SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY AND THIS HAS PREVENTED THE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 30S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THESE AREAS. WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING EAST...THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IS WHETHER THE CLEARING LOCATED WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT THIS CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO MUCH OF THE AREA /ONE EXCEPTION IS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN/ TONIGHT...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WIND MOVES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS AIR MASS MAY BE ISENTOPICALLY LIFTED UP AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CLOUDS. WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... DECIDED TO GO MORE OPTIMISTIC. IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. HOWEVER IF THE CLOUDS FAIL TO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO TAKE A BIT OF CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND JUST GO WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN HAVE SPEED UP THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD AIR IS LAGGING THIS FRONT BY ABOUT 9 TO 12 HOURS...SO NOT EXPECTING THE LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THEY ARE TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES. THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO PRECLUDE FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKED LIKE SKIES WOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS AND THE LAYER BELOW 875 MB LOOKS LIKE A DECK OF STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN MODELS DIFFER WITH THE GFS CLEARING MUCH OF THE AREA OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NAM/WRF KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY PREFER THE LATTER SOLUTION. HOWEVER WITH SUCH A DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH A BLEND OF THEM. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 340 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ON THURSDAY...THE 05.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY WARMS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. MEANWHILE THE GEM KEEPS TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH A DIFFERENCE AND THE ECMWF USUALLY DOES BETTER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THESE TWO. ON FRIDAY...IT CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...IT IS STILL A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION THAN WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE 3 DAYS AGO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THIS DAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH IS ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA DURING NEXT WEEKEND...AND THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...TONIGHT AND MONDAY 600 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 CHALLENGES PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD WITH STRATUS DECK OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF IOWA. ACROSS WISCONSIN...CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...MAINLY IN THE 800 TO 1500 FT RANGE. AFTERNOON INSOLATION HELPED MIX OUT PARTS OF STATUS...BUT EROSION AND PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING. PER THE HRRR AND RUC NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...DO NOT EXPECT THE CURRENT CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO REACH KRST OR KLSE. THUS WILL KEEP PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING...CURRENT VISIBILITIES AT KRST HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1 SM BUT EXPECTING THIS TO IMPROVE TO THE 3 TO 4 SM RANGE BY 02Z AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE...SCOURING OUT LOCAL FOG. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN LIFR /200 TO 400 FT / THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. AT KLSE...CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REDUCE TO AROUND 3 SM AROUND 09Z. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GIVE THE STRATUS THE PUSH TO COMPLETELY ERODE BY MID DAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED INITIALLY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. LOOKING AHEAD...LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 340 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...TAYLOR
FXUS63 KFSD 052102 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 300 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/ AGAIN STRATUS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG HAD BEEN STUBBORN ABOUT ERODING. TODAY THE PROBLEM AREA IS EASIER TO DIAGNOSE DOWN IN NORTHWEST IOWA AWAY FROM THE BEST MIXING AND CLOSEST TO THE SNOW COVER. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THIS IN AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS BEING THE TRICKY PART. WILL KEEP IN ALL NIGHT THIS AREA ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG...AND EXPAND THE FOG MENTION BEYOND THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST. AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD DE SMET WHERE THE LAST OF THE STRATUS NORTH OF I90 IS STUBBORNLY SHRINKING. WILL KEEP THE REDEVELOPMENT OUT FOR NOW. ANOTHER AREA MIGHT BE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTHWEST MN WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN THE LATEST TO LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS...AND WHERE THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING IT BACK IN SOME. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE INT HE 20S. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RULE WEST AND NORTH...WITH LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEAST. / WILLIAMS LINGERING STRATUS/FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-LATE MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING SIMILAR TO EARLIER SHIFT...ENTERING NORTHERN CWA LATE MORNING...AND EXITING THE SOUTHEAST JUST AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH WARMEST READINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BAND OF STRATUS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MID CLOUD DECK EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO LAYERS OF MOISTURE NEVER REALLY SEEM TO CO-EXIST IN ANY ONE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND WILL LIMIT MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES TO THESE AREAS 06Z-18Z. NAM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF FARTHER NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER NOT COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE LAYER. NOT EVEN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE BAND OF HIGHER RH INDICATED BY THE MODELS WILL BE A BONAFIDE STRATUS BAND AND IS NOT JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 18. LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND 925MB TEMPS FROM -8C TO -13C TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AIDING MIXING ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH TEMPERATURES MIXED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 925MB...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS POLAR VORTEX SETS UP CAMP OVER HUDSON BAY...AND MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON WESTWARD EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS FEATURED GFS ON COLD END OF THE SPECTRUM /850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AFTN -16C TO -23C WEST TO EAST/... WHILE ECMWF WAS QUITE A BIT WARMER /-3C TO -8C FOR SAME TIME FRAME/. DIFFERENCES PERSISTED INTO SATURDAY...WHEN AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS RANGED FROM -10C TO -18C ON THE GFS...TO +10C TO +6C WEST TO EAST ON THE ECMWF. 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ESSENTIALLY FLIP-FLOPPED...THOUGH WITH GENERAL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE WITH GFS TRENDING WARMER AND ECMWF TRENDING COLDER THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS. ALL THIS LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MIDDLE GROUND WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW. WHAT IS A LITTLE MORE CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD... WITH SUBTLE WARMUP FOR SATURDAY...AND GREATER WARMUP MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT SUNDAY. ALSO FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD OVER OUR AREA. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/UPDATED STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INCLUDING SUX. IN THIS AREA IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BELOW 3SM DURING THE NIGHT. TO THE NORTH...SOME AREAS OF FOG MAINLY 3-5SM POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AFTER 06/06Z. VFR WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AFTER 06/14Z CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN IN NORTHWEST IA DUE TO INCREASING MIXING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDMX 052328 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 528 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE 06/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING REMAINS CLOUD TRENDS. FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE BLANKETED IN LOW CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT FOG WITH PILOT REPORTS AND OMAHA AIRPORT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MOISTURE AT LEAST 1000 FT THICK. HOWEVER CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO NWRN IA WITH EXTRAPOLATION BRINGING IT TO FORT DODGE DOORSTEP BY 00Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS PROGRESSION WILL STOP AROUND 01Z AND BEGIN EXPANDING FURTHER AGAIN. STRATUS IN THIS REGIME HAS BEEN TOUGH TO BUCK EVEN AT TIMES WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW APPEARS ADEQUATE TO SCOUR THINGS OUT. 18Z NAM 975MB WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 5-10KTS ACROSS IA BY 09Z WITH A SOURCE REGION OVER NE AND IA SNOW COVER. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY HIGHER THAT STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER COOLER DEEPER CENTRAL AND SRN IA SNOWPACK...AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LESS NORTH...STILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE THERE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS. HAVE AREAS OF FOG MENTIONED...BUT IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE HIT HARDER. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS QUIET AND DRY. A BRIEF SPELL OF RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WARMING WILL BE SEVERELY TEMPERED OVER SNOWPACK AREAS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER AND HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN MOS IN THAT QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION AS TO WHEN OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF OR MOVE OUT...WHICH FAILED TO HAPPEN TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW SO WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING AND WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVERNIGHT BECAUSE IF THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND ALL DAY MONDAY THEN OUR MAX TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL TRAVERSE OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A 500 MB CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER UTAH AND COLORADO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A REGION OF MODEST BUT BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SATURATE OUR MID LEVELS AND ATTEMPT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HAVE STUCK WITH LOW POPS AND FLURRIES/SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE A BIT MORE MOIST. WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDED OVER FROM THIS TIME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AT WHICH TIME THE NORTHERN 500 MB WAVE WILL FINALLY PASS OVER OUR AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE A PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO SOME MODEST WARMING...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IOWA SHOULD STILL REMAIN AND HINDER WARMING IN THAT AREA. BY THURSDAY AN ENORMOUS GYRE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF THIS GYRE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OR BREAK OUT INTO RIDGING BUILDING IN TO OUR WEST. IN ANY EVENT PRECIPITATION APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY BUT THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MADE FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUT KEPT IT DRY AFTER THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...06/00Z CHALLENGES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL. MOVEMENT OF CLOUD SHIELD IS SLOWING DUE TO DIMINISHING DIURNAL PUSH AND EXPECTATION THAT STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN VERY LOW AND REALIZATION IS THAT PATCHY FZFG OR DENSE FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER TOWARD 10-15Z MONDAY. CIGS LIKELY TO DROP TO 002-003 AS WELL ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH COLLAPSES WITH LACK OF DIURNAL INSOLATION. ONE POSITIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT MITIGATE EXPECTED WORSENING TRENDS IS THE INCREASE IN THICKNESS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT WITH PERSISTENCE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF CHANGE OF AIRMASS AND STRATUS/LIGHT FOG ALREADY IN PLACE. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...LEE AVIATION...REV
FXUS63 KDVN 052337 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 537 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG REMAINS UNDER LOW LEVEL INVERSION OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF IOWA. TRENDS SUPPORTS CLOUD BASES OF 300 TO 900 FEET ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 6 MILES DECREASING TO 1 TO 3 MILES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BRING IN MIXING AND DRIER AIR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 7 MILES FOR VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 07/06Z. ..NICHOLS.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SYNOPSIS... STRATUS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE DAY...WITH STRATUS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...NEARLY ALL OF IOWA...AND EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. IT HAS MAINLY AFFECTED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOSTLY IN THE CLEAR. THIS STRATUS IS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER KANSAS....WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST UP OVER IOWA AND EXTENDING UP INTO WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING... AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA TODAY INDICATE THAT WE HAVE A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 950MB...GENERALLY ABOUT 1000 TO 1500 FEET THICK DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION...WITH A STEEP INVERSION JUST ABOVE IT. AT UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND SNOW YESTERDAY OVER IOWA IS NOW SHIFTING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI. CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE RAIN IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. ..LE.. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY... STRATUS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS WE ARE USED TO DEPENDING UPON HAVE NOT EVEN INITIALIZED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS CORRECTLY. THUS...THESE MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE IN PREDICTING IT. OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ONLY THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE ANY SORT OF HANDLE ON THE STATUS OF THE STRATUS. THUS...BETWEEN IT...EXPERIENCE AND NOWCASTING TECHNIQUES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY DECENT FORECAST TOOLS TODAY. SINCE THE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...ANTICIPATE THE STRATUS SHOULD REFORM AND SPREAD BACK SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS EVENING...ADVECTING ALONG IN THE NORTHWEST 925MB FLOW. OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY THINGS SEEM TO HAVE CLEARED NICELY WHERE THESE WINDS TURNED WESTERLY AND THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT COULD HELP ACT TO DRY AND WARM THIS LAYER...HELPING TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT HELP US THIS FAR EAST AND THOUGH I EXPECT THE 925MB WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY FOR US AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER THE STRATUS LAST NIGHT MIN TEMPS ONLY DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SO HAVE CONTINUED THIS. MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OUT THIS BAND OF STRATUS. THE WESTERLY 925MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 925MB...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THAT LAYER SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE IT...ALONG WITH SHEER BODILY ADVECTION. IT IS NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO GET RID OF STRATUS THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT THAT IS USUALLY DUE TO ESTABLISHED SNOWCOVER. HOPEFULLY WITH THE SNOW GONE FOR OUR AREA WE CAN GET RID OF THE STRATUS SOONER. ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS THERE COOLER...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE NORTHWEST IS TODAY. OTHERWISE...40-45 IS NOT UNREASONABLE AS LONG AS WE CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..LE.. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE MAINLY A DRY PERIOD. BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE COLD ADVECT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR SOUTH BUT EVEN THE ECM HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ONLY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS. WILL TRY TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST. MAX TEMPS ABOUT NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TROUGH STRONGLY DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TIED TO A DEEP LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SENDS AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DVN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO OUR NORTH AND NO SNOW COVER IN THE DVN CWA THIS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. THE COLDEST DAY WILL BE FRIDAY BUT SATURDAY WONT EXACTLY BE A PICNIC EITHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. WARM ADVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RETURNING SOUTH WINDS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY...NICE WARM-UP BEGINS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ..HAASE.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ NICHOLS
FXUS63 KOAX 052348 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 547 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. MAY CONCERN IS FOG AND THE STRATUS DECK. NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ATTM. THE HRRR AT LEAST KNOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THERE AND WILL LEAD ON THIS MODEL FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STALL THIS EVNG AND WILL KEEP OMA IN LIFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SE NEB THE STRATUS MAY TRY BUILD BACK TOWARD LNK...BUT SHOULD STAY E OF OFK THRU THE NIGHT. ALSO IF AND WHERE FOG WILL DVLP TONIGHT. WITH A GENERAL WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE FEEL FOG IS A PRETTY GOOD BET DESPITE THE GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE FZFG IN ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT DOES INCREASE ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUE AND THUS WILL TRY AND MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BOUSTEAD && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LULL IN WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE AREA QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH AXIS...WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED AROUND SOUTHERN AB/SASK/MB. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DESCENDING OUT OF THE NW TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN AB/SASK. COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH AN 850MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER KS/OK UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A WARM POOL OVER SASK/MB/ND/MT UNDER THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL US. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE STRATUS/FOG THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WELL...BUT HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG...AND RUC IS IN THE BALLPARK. BOTH KEEP THE STRATUS LOCKED IN ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING/KEEPING FOG IN ROUGHLY THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF ANY KIND OF COLD AIR PUSH OR ADVECTION THAT WOULD SCOUR THE MOISTURE...AND PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE DAY...AM INCLINED TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM OVERCAST TO CLEAR...WITH SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE NIGHT. NATURALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON LOCATION OF CLOUDS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND LINCOLN TO WAYNE CLEAR...AND THUS MUCH COLDER...THAN AREAS EAST. DID ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE A BIT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT MIXING DURING THE DAY...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY MAY HINDER FULL SUNSHINE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN CANADA WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEAKENING/EJECTING UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED TO PHASE AS THE TWO INTERACT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE RESULTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER KS/MO BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN CWA LIKELY WILL BE JUST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THAT PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SKIMMING THE AREA MAINLY ON MONDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP MENTION AS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL WEST AND JUST GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...AND INCREASED TO HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERNMOST CWA WHILE TRIMMING POPS IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AS DRY AIR WILL FEED INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AND SUPPRESS NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOWY AREAS. HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED AN AREA OF COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK ON WEDNESDAY. MAYES .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY STILL DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS OF NOTE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER THOUGH...THUS DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. MODEL CONTINUITY BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING...WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS ANOTHER COLDER SURGE OF AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND DOESN/T BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMUP UNTIL SUNDAY. UNTIL MORE CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...WILL TREND GRIDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY/HPC/BLENDED SOLUTIONS. DEWALD && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KARX 051042 HWOARX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 441 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-061200- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 441 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NO ACTION IS NEEDED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. $$ WETENKAMP
FLUS43 KFSD 051024 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 0424 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-061200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 0424 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KDMX 052132 HWODMX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 332 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>097-062145- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN- WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER- POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION- CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE- DAVIS- 332 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ LEE
FLUS43 KDVN 051014 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 414 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061015- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 414 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ SHEETS
FLUS43 KOAX 060128 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 728 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061530- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 728 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. $$
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FXUS63 KEAX 060138 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 738 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... Stratus deck has started to surge southward again once the sun went down. Have expanded the cloudy skies and fog southward. Models not handling this very low...100-500ft...stratus deck as it is below the 975mb level. Will also be watching the area just in front of the stratus for dense fog formation as that interface is a primary favored zone. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /200 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ Today we casually celebrate "National Weatherperson's Day", which I suppose is a bit self-gratifying. However, none of these discussions, our forecasts, or warnings would be effective if it were not for the media, emergency managers, observers and storm spotters who make our jobs that much easier. So here's to you Mr. Gabrielson for all the help you've given me and the rest of the NWS over the past few years. Tonight: On the home front, most of the CWA has experienced abundant sunshine in the wake of the storm system that dumped beneficial rainfall and some snow across the region over the past two days. Visible satellite imagery shows the light snow cover has eroded rapidly back toward extreme NW MO, which itself has disguised an expansive canopy of low stratus that has blanketed eastern Nebraska and most of Iowa today. This deck has crept southward into far nrn MO over the past several hours, but with the loss of daytime heating I would expect a fairly rapid expansion toward the south and east this evening focused along the eastern half of the approaching surface ridge axis. To further complicate matters tonight, the very moist boundary layer, coupled with light winds and clear skies would tend to promote a fairly healthy environment for dense freezing fog along the periphery (or within) the stratus shield. A combination of LIFR ceilings and fog will impact both aviation and ground travel interests across northern and eastern Missouri overnight. Tomorrow: A rather benign day once the fog burns off with southwest winds returning early in the day. Should warm up to around 50 most locations, with the exception of far NW MO where lingering light snow cover will have some influence. Tuesday-Wednesday: Western extension of yesterday's storm has since closed off over the Central Rockies and will finally begin to emerge late Monday. This secondary gyre will gradually lose its closed character as it opens and phases with a stronger wave dropping south from Canada. Collectively, these systems will allow some colder air to filter into the area Wednesday, but the accompanying precipitation event looks anything but impressive, driven mainly by system scale mid level ascent. Cloud cover should arrive pre-dawn Tuesday, with a fairly broad area of light snow (northwest) to rain (southeast) developing and persisting through early evening. Outside of some localized enhancement, expect amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch with little or snow snow accums. Thursday-Saturday: Region will reside in the void between the polar and subtropical streams with the dominant polar vortex undergoing strong intensification over Hudson Bay with a powerful cyclonically curved polar jet traversing its circumference. Building heights along the west coast will keep the bulk of Pacific energy offshore with a secondary area of troughing along the TX/MX border region. For us, this will yield a prolonged period of dry weather with little change in temperatures -- in fact one of the cooler periods we've seen in some time. Sunday and beyond: It appears enough shortwave impulses across the northern Pacific will break down the western ridge yet again, while phasing streams over the eastern states allow the longwave to shift into the Atlantic. Thus, the trend for Sunday into early next week should be for a return to more zonal flow with warmer conditions moving back into the area. Bookbinder && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs...Overnight concerns center around fog potential and approaching LIFR stratus deck to the north. Will start off with VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but latest satellite trends show leading edge of stratus will be edging into the KSTJ terminal shortly. Whether or not the stratus will reach the KC terminals is questionable as it appears they will be near the western edge of the stratus. Will leave out for now but keep a close eye on it. Given the amount of moisture present near the surface due to the recent heavy rains and snow melt the surface dewpoints have remained rather elevated. This becomes important as the winds will be light or locally calm allowing the air temperatures to drop quickly to the current surface dewpoints, and thus result in fog formation. UPS fog utility suggests dense fog possible at all 3 terminals. However, think KSTJ stands best chance owing to its proximity to the stratus deck. Will monitor evening temperature/dewpoints for trends and adjust the forecast if necessary. Any fog should mix out by mid morning leaving clear skies. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX
FXUS63 KLSX 052334 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 534 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... /200 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM FORECAST DILEMMA IS HOW TO HANDLE THE LIFR STRATUS THAT IS ADVECTING SOUTH FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND LAKE ENHANCED MVFR STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ATTM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LITTLE HELP AND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD LAYER WIND FORECAST. HAVE TIMED THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS DUE SOUTH AS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND REMAINS NORTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES WILL CEASE UPON SUNSET AND GIVEN MOIST GROUND...ANTICIPATE THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...RATHER THAN DISSIPATE. IN ADDITION...MVFR/IFR FOG EXISTS WITH THIS STRATUS...AND WILL BE ADDING FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY BY 12Z...WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE/ADVECT STRATUS DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION FOR MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN CENTRAL MO. THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. MODEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT DID NOT BITE ON LIKELY POPS ADVERTISED BY NAM. INITIALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN...BUT DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT AT LEAST IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS FIRST INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO TAKE UP SHOP NEAR THE HUDSON BAY BY WEEKS END. THIS IS USUALLY A STRONG SIGNAL OF POLAR IF NOT ARCTIC AIR BEING ALLOWED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE BOUNCING AROUND ON JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS WE MAY FINALLY FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER AROUND HERE FOR A FEW DAYS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CVKING && .AVIATION... /506 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB WITH CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT AT UIN. AREA OF ST OVER IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TONIGHT. BKN-OVC DECK SHUD REACH UIN BY 00Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SWD AND SHUD IMPACT CPS AND POSSIBLY SUS AROUND 12Z MON. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT FG/FZFG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENUF MIXING MAY CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT TO ALLOW FROST RATHER THAN FG. CLOUDS SHUD CLEAR OUT OF UIN/CPS/SUS BY MID DAY WITH WLY TO SWLY WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. FG/FZFG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ST DECK OVER IA/NRN MO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND 12Z MON BEFORE LIFTING NWD AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W MON AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KTS. TILLY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 052338 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 538 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ST LOUIS AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHEAST TO NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA BY 12Z (6 AM) MONDAY. IN THE PROCESS...SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST WITH IT...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK. PRECIP CHANCES MAY LINGER JUST PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 TROF PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE COLDER HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TYPE A BIT TRICKY AT THIS POINT. GFS...SREF...AND ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SHOW THE COLD AIR COMING IN RATHER QUICKLY BUT THE NAM SERIES HOLDS THE COLD AIR AT BAY...AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE GRIDS DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND WITH A HEAVY LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY...WITH MODELS CRANKING OUT SUCH WIMPY QPF AMOUNTS...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN OR SNOW AMOUNTS. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS SHOWS ONLY A FEW BLIPS OF QPF...WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD BUT MINIMAL QPF. IN EITHER CASE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO DIMINISH WITH ITS APPROACH...SO ANY CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEM TOO INSIGNIFICANT TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THIS TROF...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BOTH ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CLEARING LINE WAS FROM KFAM TO KHSB TO KEVV MOVING SOUTH JUST UNDER 10 MPH. SHALLOW RETURNS SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CLEARING LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF KCGI TO NEAR K2I0. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY 02/03Z AT KEVV AND KOWB. AT KPAH AND KCGI THIS EVENING...LOW END MVFR TO IFR WITH POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AFTER 06/07Z. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR. QUIET WX MONDAY...WITH NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND PERHAPS FEW CU/STRATO-CU. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KSGF 052347 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 547 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AND AT SATELLITE CONFIRM THAT THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TAKES HOLD. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND COLORADO WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT...AND WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. THINK THAT THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE OUT WEST WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE GREATEST...AND RIGHT ALONG THE PLATEAU...WHERE THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY SEASONABLE DAY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. NEXT SYSTEMS OF INTEREST WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING COLORADO AND NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVES SEPARATE AS THEY APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THEN TRIES TO PHASE THEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO CAREFULLY...AS GUIDANCE HAS HISTORICALLY STRUGGLED A BIT WITH THE PHASING OF SHORTWAVES...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. QPF HAS INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...THOUGH THE SYSTEM CERTAINLY REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MOST LIKELY...AND ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY ACCUMULATING WITH WARM GROUND TEMPS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES PHASE...THEN STRONGER FORCING WOULD POINT TOWARD SOMEWHAT BEEFIER QPF. HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED...TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER COOL...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION'S MID SECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE IN LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO BE AROUND OR MAYBE JUST A TAD BELOW NORMAL...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOXELL && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ FOR THE 06/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL HANGING ON OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A MOIST GROUND...A LACK OF A NOTABLE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND A CLEAR OR CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MO. FOR NOW HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z-10Z AND IFR FOG AT KBBG. WILL WATCH TRENDS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DSA && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
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FLUS43 KEAX 060155 HWOEAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 755 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-061115- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 755 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ MJ
FLUS43 KLSX 052028 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 228 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 228 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SPREADING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ CVKING
FLUS43 KPAH 051006 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 406 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WABASH RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOODING ON THE WABASH AND MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FLUS43 KSGF 060011 HWOSGF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 611 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070015- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 611 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED FOG RISK. DISCUSSION... LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR OR CLEARING SKY...AND A MOIST GROUND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING TERRAIN. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE IN COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) $$ DSA
FXUS63 KFSD 052102 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 300 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 PM CST/ AGAIN STRATUS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG HAD BEEN STUBBORN ABOUT ERODING. TODAY THE PROBLEM AREA IS EASIER TO DIAGNOSE DOWN IN NORTHWEST IOWA AWAY FROM THE BEST MIXING AND CLOSEST TO THE SNOW COVER. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THIS IN AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE FINE DETAILS BEING THE TRICKY PART. WILL KEEP IN ALL NIGHT THIS AREA ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG...AND EXPAND THE FOG MENTION BEYOND THE STRATUS LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST. AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD DE SMET WHERE THE LAST OF THE STRATUS NORTH OF I90 IS STUBBORNLY SHRINKING. WILL KEEP THE REDEVELOPMENT OUT FOR NOW. ANOTHER AREA MIGHT BE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTHWEST MN WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN THE LATEST TO LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS...AND WHERE THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING IT BACK IN SOME. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE INT HE 20S. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RULE WEST AND NORTH...WITH LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEAST. / WILLIAMS LINGERING STRATUS/FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD CLEAR BY MID-LATE MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING SIMILAR TO EARLIER SHIFT...ENTERING NORTHERN CWA LATE MORNING...AND EXITING THE SOUTHEAST JUST AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING MOST AREAS CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH WARMEST READINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BAND OF STRATUS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND MID CLOUD DECK EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO LAYERS OF MOISTURE NEVER REALLY SEEM TO CO-EXIST IN ANY ONE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND WILL LIMIT MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES TO THESE AREAS 06Z-18Z. NAM IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF FARTHER NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUD LAYER NOT COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE LAYER. NOT EVEN HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE BAND OF HIGHER RH INDICATED BY THE MODELS WILL BE A BONAFIDE STRATUS BAND AND IS NOT JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 18. LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND 925MB TEMPS FROM -8C TO -13C TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AIDING MIXING ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH TEMPERATURES MIXED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 925MB...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS POLAR VORTEX SETS UP CAMP OVER HUDSON BAY...AND MODELS STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON WESTWARD EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS FEATURED GFS ON COLD END OF THE SPECTRUM /850MB TEMPS FRIDAY AFTN -16C TO -23C WEST TO EAST/... WHILE ECMWF WAS QUITE A BIT WARMER /-3C TO -8C FOR SAME TIME FRAME/. DIFFERENCES PERSISTED INTO SATURDAY...WHEN AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS RANGED FROM -10C TO -18C ON THE GFS...TO +10C TO +6C WEST TO EAST ON THE ECMWF. 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS ESSENTIALLY FLIP-FLOPPED...THOUGH WITH GENERAL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE WITH GFS TRENDING WARMER AND ECMWF TRENDING COLDER THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS. ALL THIS LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MIDDLE GROUND WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW. WHAT IS A LITTLE MORE CLEAR IS THAT FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD... WITH SUBTLE WARMUP FOR SATURDAY...AND GREATER WARMUP MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT SUNDAY. ALSO FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD OVER OUR AREA. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/UPDATED STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INCLUDING SUX. IN THIS AREA IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BELOW 3SM DURING THE NIGHT. TO THE NORTH...SOME AREAS OF FOG MAINLY 3-5SM POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AFTER 06/06Z. VFR WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AFTER 06/14Z CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR EVEN IN NORTHWEST IA DUE TO INCREASING MIXING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 052348 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 547 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. MAY CONCERN IS FOG AND THE STRATUS DECK. NEARLY ALL OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ATTM. THE HRRR AT LEAST KNOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THERE AND WILL LEAD ON THIS MODEL FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STALL THIS EVNG AND WILL KEEP OMA IN LIFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SE NEB THE STRATUS MAY TRY BUILD BACK TOWARD LNK...BUT SHOULD STAY E OF OFK THRU THE NIGHT. ALSO IF AND WHERE FOG WILL DVLP TONIGHT. WITH A GENERAL WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE FEEL FOG IS A PRETTY GOOD BET DESPITE THE GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE FZFG IN ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT DOES INCREASE ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUE AND THUS WILL TRY AND MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BOUSTEAD && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LULL IN WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE AREA QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST TROUGH AXIS...WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED AROUND SOUTHERN AB/SASK/MB. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DESCENDING OUT OF THE NW TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN AB/SASK. COLD AIR REMAINS LOCKED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL US...WITH AN 850MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER KS/OK UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH...AND A WARM POOL OVER SASK/MB/ND/MT UNDER THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL US. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE STRATUS/FOG THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW STRATUS DECK WELL...BUT HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG...AND RUC IS IN THE BALLPARK. BOTH KEEP THE STRATUS LOCKED IN ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING/KEEPING FOG IN ROUGHLY THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LACK OF ANY KIND OF COLD AIR PUSH OR ADVECTION THAT WOULD SCOUR THE MOISTURE...AND PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE DAY...AM INCLINED TO LEAN PESSIMISTIC AND KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT FROM OVERCAST TO CLEAR...WITH SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION THROUGH THE NIGHT. NATURALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON LOCATION OF CLOUDS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND LINCOLN TO WAYNE CLEAR...AND THUS MUCH COLDER...THAN AREAS EAST. DID ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS WEST WINDS INCREASE A BIT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT MIXING DURING THE DAY...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY MAY HINDER FULL SUNSHINE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHERN CANADA WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEAKENING/EJECTING UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED TO PHASE AS THE TWO INTERACT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE RESULTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER KS/MO BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN CWA LIKELY WILL BE JUST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THAT PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SKIMMING THE AREA MAINLY ON MONDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP MENTION AS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL WEST AND JUST GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...AND INCREASED TO HIGHER CHANCES ON TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERNMOST CWA WHILE TRIMMING POPS IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AS DRY AIR WILL FEED INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AND SUPPRESS NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO FALL QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOWY AREAS. HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED AN AREA OF COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK ON WEDNESDAY. MAYES .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY STILL DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS OF NOTE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER THOUGH...THUS DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. MODEL CONTINUITY BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING...WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS ANOTHER COLDER SURGE OF AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND DOESN/T BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMUP UNTIL SUNDAY. UNTIL MORE CONTINUITY DEVELOPS...WILL TREND GRIDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY/HPC/BLENDED SOLUTIONS. DEWALD && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLBF 060139
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
739 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.AVIATION...
THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT
LBF MAY HAVE SOME PATCHES OF FOG. THE WATER ON THE NEARBY WETLANDS
AND ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER IS OPEN AND TEMPERATURES BY 10Z ARE
LIKELY TO BE WELL BELOW THE WATER TEMPERATURES. THERE HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MELTING AND SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOW COVER TODAY...THUS
INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. IN
ADDITION...THE EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A FOG-FAVORABLE MOISTURE
PROFILE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH A UNIFORM MIXING RATIO FROM
ABOUT 100 FEET AGL TO ABOUT 1000 FEET AGL. THIS RAISES THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE INSTRUMENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION TO THE LBF TERMINAL FORECAST WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG.
OUTSIDE OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS BY 00Z NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
PEERING A LITTLE BEYOND...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER KANSAS WITH H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME SUBLIMATION AND SOME
MELTING TODAY BUT AN EXPANSIVE SNOW FIELD OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXCEPT SHERIDAN AND WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTIES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR SNOW COVER.
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN TIME HEIGHTS AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...NOT WIDESPREAD AND HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
LATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONT BUT WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE. SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SCHC POPS
OVER MOST OF CWA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH. COLDEST AIR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. 850MB AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE 30S AND THEM
WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...WFO LBF
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FXUS65 KCYS 060143 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 643 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER CLOUD IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AS SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. && .AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE... VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. CEILINGS WILL DROP FOLLOWING FROPA WITH MVFR TO IFR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE EAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL UTAH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO ROTATE WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FROM COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 20S AND 30S SOUTHWEST OF A LUSK TO SIDNEY LINE WITH 40S TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WERE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 MPH. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF MAINTAIN THE WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS IT TRANSITS EAST ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REX BLOCK PATTERN FINALLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BRISK FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY (700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15 DEG C) WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALL MODELS SHOW A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS A WEAK CLIPPER PACIFIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WITH THE GFS AND DGEX SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY AS THE COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM DO SHOW SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO COLORADO...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF A CANADA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF WYOMING...ALL THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CLIPPING THE HIGH PLAINS ZONES EAST OF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON FRIDAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR NOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER THEM FURTHER IF CURRENT MODELS TREND TOWARDS A SOLUTION WHERE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FURTHER TO THE WEST. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND GENERALLY BELOW 15 PERCENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND BELOW 10 KNOTS. FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LIEBL SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...LIEBL
FXUS63 KGLD 052314 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 414 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)... 226 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL AIM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT GIVEN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MESOSCALE...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK AREAS WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...ELSEWHERE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. 007 MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING DOWN FAR ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW THE A DRY ENVIRONMENT FROM 700MB TO THE SURFACE WHICH MAY LEAD TO VIRGA INSTEAD OF PRECIPITATING. MONDAY NIGHT FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST LONGEST LASTING FRONTOGENESIS OVER AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE NIGHT AS 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE COOLER AIR UP THROUGH 800MB BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. TUESDAY WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN 850MB RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SMALL. JTL .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)... 226 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OVER MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVE EAST. && .AVIATION... 414 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY REACHING THE DEW POINT BUT DEW POINTS DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SNOW ON THE GROUND...FOG IS AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT DECREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES VFR AT THE TERMINALS. CJS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 052303 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 503 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITE THIS EVENING WILL CREATE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT THE TAF SITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW PACKED GROUND WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HINT AT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS LOWER VISIBILITIES BEGINNING NEAR 0Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DECIDED TO KEEP A HINT OF VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAF BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY HOW LOW VISIBILITIES COULD DROP WITH CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH SUNRISE SHOULD CLEAR ALL REMNANTS OF FOG AND INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS TO NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DOESNT GET MUCH MORE TRANQUIL THAN WHAT THE CWA HAS SEEN TODAY...WITH A QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SITTING UNDER WEAK RIDGING AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER NEAR SERN MO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A GREAT VIEW OF THE SNOWPACK FROM THE FRI-SAT SYSTEM...WITH THE CWA CLOUD FREE AS THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS REMAINED CLOSER TO THE MO RIVER REGION. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NWRN KS...BRINGING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND...PLENTY OF SUN HELPING TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S...AND EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENDING UP CENTERED OVER NRN TX BY 12Z MONDAY. SITTING BETWEEN THIS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WESTERLY WINDS INTO TOMORROW. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...WITH LOWER/MID TEENS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOT REALLY SHOWING IT...BUT MODEL DATA FROM THE NAM/RUC/HRRR DOES SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING THIS EVENING...AND FELT THAT WITH SNOW MELTING TODAY THAT ITS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE COMPLETELY LIGHT/VARIABLE. SPEEDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TWEAKED HIGHS UP A BIT FOR MONDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...CONTINUE TO SEE WRLY WINDS...AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON KNOWN HAVE REACHED ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...CALLING FOR SIMILAR TEMPS TOMORROW. LONG TERM...00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL OPEN UP AND SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AM AGAIN FOLLOWING MORE CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...TRANSITIONING TO ECMWF ENSEMBLES TOWARD LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS HAS BEEN THE GENERAL PREFERENCE FOR THIS WINTER SEASON AS THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...LATCHED ONTO THE PERSISTENT LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS SEASON COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKES ME LIKE THE ECMWF THAT MUCH MORE. THE POLAR VORTEX IS SO FAR NORTH THAT MUCH OF ANY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYS TO COME FOR MOST OF THE CWA DUE LARGELY TO WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED QPF FOR TUESDAY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED YESTERDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN CONTRAST HAVE A MARKED INCREASE IN CHANCES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. ALSO...TRUE TO TYPICAL FORM...THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FOR QPF WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMPT ME TO KEEP OUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FOCUS ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. I STILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND DO NOT PLAN TO GO MUCH HIGHER WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN INHERITED IN THE FORECAST. THE OPENING POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE FAR-REMOVED POLAR VORTEX TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A PUNCH OF COOLER AIR...BUT HARDLY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WITH THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY SOLID CLOUD COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND SNOW COVER...THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND...SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST. ESSENTIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL GO NOWHERE FROM MORNING LOWS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVELS COULD BE DRY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY POST- FRONTAL. I AM A BIT MORE TROUBLED BY A WARMING TREND OF TEMPERATURES AT THESE MID-LEVELS THAT COULD INDICATE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ONSET...BUT PLAN VIEWS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER ALL POINT TOWARD SNOW BEING THE OVERWHELMINGLY PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE IF NOT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS NOT A SCENARIO THAT IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...WITH A POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...SO I DO NOT PLAN ON INTRODUCING ANYTHING OTHER THAN SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS A QUICKLY-MOVING AND RELATIVELY BENIGN-LOOKING WAVE HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING OVER HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IN OUR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW IN OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY TANK AS A THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA ABOUT THE TIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED...AND WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR MANY AREAS...THIS WILL BE CHILLY...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT I DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A HUGE ISSUE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES IN FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS TRENDING ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX...WHICH WILL BE ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR. TRENDED QUITE A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY HIGHS WITH 20S EXPECTED NOW. SHOULD GET A WARM-UP BY SATURDAY. AGAIN...WILL GENERALLY GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF ALLBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA...MOSTLY DUE TO SNOW COVER. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...SALTZMAN SHORT...ADO LONG...HEINLEIN
FLUS43 KFSD 051024 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 0424 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-061200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 0424 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KOAX 060128 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 728 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061530- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 728 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. $$
FLUS43 KLBF 052140 HWOLBF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 340 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062145- SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN- GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON- LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- WESTERN CHERRY- 340 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 /240 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE $$ MASEK
FLUS45 KCYS 051128 HWOCYS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 428 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 WYZ101>119-061130- CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY- NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS- SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY- EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY- NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY- SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE- LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS- CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY- 428 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING... SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-061130- DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE- NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX- 428 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ WEILAND
FLUS43 KGLD 050943 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 243 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061345- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 243 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 /343 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KGID 050919 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 319 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 061200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 319 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NEBRASKA TO BELOIT KANSAS...WITH LESSER TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS64 KTSA 052311 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 511 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. FOR THE 0Z TAFS... LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ARKANSAS SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THAT... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WEAKENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT NEXT WEEKEND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...06
FXUS64 KOUN 052310 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 510 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... WIND WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUFFICIENTLY LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA AND WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK. ALL MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH THE WRF/NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE /WHICH APPEARS TYPICALLY WAY OVERDONE/. OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR ADEQUATE THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE 6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SUFFICIENT DEEP ASCENT. RESULT WILL BE KEEPING ALL SNOW WORDING CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE THE SNOWFALL TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO OUR NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES...ANY PRECIP SEEN TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FORECAST FOR MID-LATE WEEK. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NRN TEXAS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP MOST OF LATE WEEK PRECIP SOUTH OF RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WILL GIVE NEXT SHIFT A PERUSAL OF DATA BEFORE REMOVING CHANCES COMPLETELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 54 36 48 / 0 0 10 30 HOBART OK 25 53 36 45 / 0 0 10 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 30 53 37 54 / 0 0 10 20 GAGE OK 20 53 29 39 / 0 0 20 30 PONCA CITY OK 23 53 29 42 / 0 0 10 30 DURANT OK 33 54 39 56 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/11
FXUS64 KAMA 052317 AAA AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 517 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD STAY NEAR OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...AND EVEN AFTER THAT SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TO 15KT. JOHNSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT: VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS. STILL EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. MONDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD AND OPEN AS IT BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 6 PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 9 PM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BECOME DEEPER AND POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UP TO 0.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO MOIST. TUESDAY: OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE AREA. THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TO HEREFORD TO GUYMON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY...WOULD EXPECT AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THAT RETURN FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEETING ADVISORY- LEVEL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY 6 PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS VERY LOW. WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MODIFY SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 40-DEGREE MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH ANY SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP KNOCK HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. JACKSON FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 16/20
FXUS64 KSHV 052151 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 351 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTH TEXAS...SO WITH SOME RESPECT WE CONTINUE THE 20 CENTS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THE LOW POPS RETURN AS WE END THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL DROP ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST. AT THIS TIME LOW POPS ARE IN PLAY...BUT POPS MAY INCREASE WITH TIME. SHORT TERM TEMPS HAVE A SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUDS...WITH WARMER MINS AND COOLER MAXES IN RELATION TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. OUR EXTENDED NUMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE MEX. ELEVEN && .AVIATION... POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT AND LIFT TOWARD VFR. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE LA COAST HAS BEEN PILING IN THE MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...BUT DRIER AIR IS ABOUT TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FILTER IN TO MANY TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO MID TEENS WILL BEGIN TO LAY DOWN. ALOFT...NORTHERLY FLOW IS AROUND 4KFT DEEP AND BACKS TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS INCREASING TO WSW AT 90KTS BY FL300. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 40 55 43 56 38 / 0 0 10 10 10 MLU 41 54 42 55 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 DEQ 35 53 39 54 33 / 0 0 10 10 10 TXK 38 53 41 53 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 ELD 39 53 39 53 35 / 0 0 10 10 10 TYR 38 52 43 55 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 GGG 39 53 42 56 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 LFK 40 55 45 59 38 / 20 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 11/24
FLUS44 KTSA 052254 HWOTSA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 500 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 500 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. DISCUSSION... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY...NO HAZARDS. TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS. FRIDAY...HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY COULD BECOME A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH GUSTY WINDS. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$
FLUS44 KOUN 051718
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY FEB 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... THIS SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.
$$
MA/MAXWELL
FLUS44 KAMA 052051 HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 251 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061215- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 251 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ JACKSON
FLUS44 KSHV 051737 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA- NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE- FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG- HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ ELEVEN
FXUS64 KFWD 052324 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 524 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... NO CONCERNS WITH VFR NEXT 24 HRS. MID LEVEL CIGS BETWEEN 070-110 KFT WILL CONTINUE AROUND WACO WHERE MORE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WILL BE OVERHEAD. NORTH FLOW AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DOWN TO AROUND 5 KTS/LESS AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN AND DECOUPLING OF COOL/DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NORTH TX MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN S/SE FLOW UNDER 10 KTS. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND RESULT IN DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME SPOTS MAY EVEN FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MERGES WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE 10 PERCENT POPS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS NEAR THE WEST COAST AND DROPS SOUTH TO NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF STILL DISAGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND MERGES THE LOW WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AND MOVES IT ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND THUS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW. AM INCLINED TO TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE PATTERN RECOGNITION HAS SHOWN SUCH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OFTEN HAS DIFFICULTY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 54 42 59 36 / 5 5 5 5 5 WACO, TX 34 54 39 59 37 / 5 5 5 5 10 PARIS, TX 32 53 40 57 34 / 5 5 10 10 5 DENTON, TX 30 53 37 59 34 / 5 5 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 31 53 38 55 33 / 5 5 5 5 5 DALLAS, TX 35 54 42 58 37 / 5 5 5 5 5 TERRELL, TX 33 54 40 57 36 / 5 5 5 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 34 57 41 57 38 / 5 5 5 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 35 55 39 61 37 / 5 10 5 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 53 36 57 33 / 5 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/79
FXUS64 KSHV 052151 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 351 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL SPINNING OVER THE ROCKIES AND KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTH TEXAS...SO WITH SOME RESPECT WE CONTINUE THE 20 CENTS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THE LOW POPS RETURN AS WE END THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY...AS MODEL DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL DROP ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST. AT THIS TIME LOW POPS ARE IN PLAY...BUT POPS MAY INCREASE WITH TIME. SHORT TERM TEMPS HAVE A SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUDS...WITH WARMER MINS AND COOLER MAXES IN RELATION TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. OUR EXTENDED NUMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE MEX. ELEVEN && .AVIATION... POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT AND LIFT TOWARD VFR. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE LA COAST HAS BEEN PILING IN THE MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...BUT DRIER AIR IS ABOUT TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FILTER IN TO MANY TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO MID TEENS WILL BEGIN TO LAY DOWN. ALOFT...NORTHERLY FLOW IS AROUND 4KFT DEEP AND BACKS TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS INCREASING TO WSW AT 90KTS BY FL300. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 40 55 43 56 38 / 0 0 10 10 10 MLU 41 54 42 55 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 DEQ 35 53 39 54 33 / 0 0 10 10 10 TXK 38 53 41 53 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 ELD 39 53 39 53 35 / 0 0 10 10 10 TYR 38 52 43 55 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 GGG 39 53 42 56 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 LFK 40 55 45 59 38 / 20 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 11/24
FXUS64 KOUN 052310 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 510 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... WIND WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUFFICIENTLY LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA AND WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK. ALL MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS WITH THE WRF/NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE /WHICH APPEARS TYPICALLY WAY OVERDONE/. OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR ADEQUATE THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE 6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SUFFICIENT DEEP ASCENT. RESULT WILL BE KEEPING ALL SNOW WORDING CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTIONED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE THE SNOWFALL TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO OUR NORTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES...ANY PRECIP SEEN TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LIGHT RAIN. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FORECAST FOR MID-LATE WEEK. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NRN TEXAS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY. MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP MOST OF LATE WEEK PRECIP SOUTH OF RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WILL GIVE NEXT SHIFT A PERUSAL OF DATA BEFORE REMOVING CHANCES COMPLETELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 54 36 48 / 0 0 10 30 HOBART OK 25 53 36 45 / 0 0 10 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 30 53 37 54 / 0 0 10 20 GAGE OK 20 53 29 39 / 0 0 20 30 PONCA CITY OK 23 53 29 42 / 0 0 10 30 DURANT OK 33 54 39 56 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 25/11
FXUS64 KEWX 052357 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 557 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS AOA 6 THSD AGL THROUGHOUT TAF SITES. MINOR DISTURBANCES IMPACTING I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MAY LOWER CIGS SLIGHTLY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. CIGS LIFTING GENERALLY AOA 9 THSD AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE EAST. I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. KDRT WINDS NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 41 56 42 63 44 / 20 - - - 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 55 37 62 41 / 20 - - - 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 39 56 41 62 43 / 20 - - - 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 54 39 61 41 / 10 - - - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 42 61 41 65 46 / - 0 0 - 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 55 39 62 40 / 20 - - - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 58 38 63 44 / 10 - - - 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 40 55 40 61 42 / 20 - - - 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 41 58 41 62 46 / 30 - - 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 41 56 42 63 46 / 20 - - - 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 42 57 42 64 46 / 20 - - - 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
FXUS64 KCRP 060149
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
749 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXITING
VICTORIA COUNTY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA. THERE
IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY MODELS TO COME OUT OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS MUCH LESS TONIGHT...JET STREAK
WEAKER AND ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ABOVE H75 LESS STEEP. WILL KEEP
ONLY A 10 POP FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...QPF AND COVERAGE NOTHING LIKE LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY GRIDS TO RE-ESTABLISH
TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCCUSION BELOW.
AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS (3500-5000FT) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
OCCUR...DRG THE 10-14Z MONDAY PERIOD...OVER LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED COPIOUS RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TNGT YET WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. GENERALLY LGT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTH WIND DRG THE
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT IS
MAINLY OVER FOR THE EVENING. HRRR AND RUC MODELS INDICATE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND UP TOWARD CORPUS THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THEY BOTH
SHOW PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT BEING
REALIZED...SO THINK THEY ARE PROBABLY OVERDOING THE CHANCE
TONIGHT. WILL STILL LEAVE CHANCE WORDING EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
CENTRAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...AND WATER STILL STANDING IN SOME
AREAS...HAVE TO CONSIDER THE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY...AND WINDS IN THE EAST SHOULD STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.
SHOULD COOL TEMPS MORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TOMORROW AND WILL LIMIT
WARMING. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS MODELS SEEM TO ALL BE
COMING IN WITH COOLER SOLNS TODAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO COME BACK
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
CHANCES...EXCEPT OFFSHORE...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LVL S/W
AND UPR JET STREAM MOVES OVHD...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PCPN. SFC RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE GULF WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. INCREASING UPR DIFLUENCE AND OMEGA WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO BAHA WILL PRODUCE A CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. 115KTS UPR JET WILL NOSE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS LATE WED NIGHT/THU AND WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPR LVL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE
LAST SYSTEM (PWATS NEAR 1" -VS- 1.5" LAST NIGHT). NONE THE
LESS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AND ABNORMALLY WET LA NINA
FEBRUARY TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCA'S WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF WATERS WED AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST AND THE AFORMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 45 58 45 65 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
VICTORIA 42 58 42 64 46 / 10 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 46 63 48 66 52 / 10 10 10 10 30
ALICE 43 60 43 65 49 / 10 10 10 20 30
ROCKPORT 46 59 51 66 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
COTULLA 43 60 42 64 48 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 43 60 44 66 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 48 60 48 67 50 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
FXUS64 KHGX 052332
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
RAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL DIMINISH AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACT ON TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. CIGS/VSBY
WILL REMAIN VFR. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAVING A TOUGH GO OF IT THIS AFTN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOL/DRY AIRMASS OVER SE TX. STILL LOOKING AT A
BRIEF BREAK WITH POPS TOMORROW BUT MODELS STILL HINTING AT THE A-
NOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES. SCT/ISO -RA/DZ ONCE
AGAIN GIVEN THE NLY LOWER/MID LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW BEING
OVERRUN BY MOISTURE/WINDS ALOFT FROM THE SW LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEK IF THE MODELS DO VERIFY. A REINFORCING SURGE
OF COOL AIR EXPECTED WEDS AS WE GET ANOTHER BREAK. HOWEVER THINGS
PROGGED TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS INCREASING
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THURS HERALDS THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
(I.E. RESPONSIBLE/PESKY/LINGERING) UPPER TROF/LOW AOA THE CA BAJA.
STILL GOING WITH POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPPER TROF FINALLY KICKING AS
PER THE GFS. AND WITH THAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT/SURGE OF COOL DRY
AIR SET TO MOVE DOWN OFF THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE DEVELOPING N/NWLY
UPPER FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROF SHOULD HELP US FINALLY
HELP CLEAR THE CLOUDS/POPS FOR NEXT SUN. 41
MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN RELAXING AND THE SCA CONDITIONS OFFSHORE SHOULD BE
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
45
AVIATION...
VFR WITH OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NORTH AND SCT/BKN 045-060 DECKS
COMING AND GOING TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NORTH WINDS
RELAXING.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 59 42 62 42 / 30 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 41 59 42 63 43 / 30 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 46 59 49 63 49 / 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 AM CST MONDAY THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...43
FXUS64 KAMA 052317 AAA AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 517 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD STAY NEAR OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...AND EVEN AFTER THAT SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TO 15KT. JOHNSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT: VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AREAS. STILL EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. MONDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD AND OPEN AS IT BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AFTER 6 PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 9 PM AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BECOME DEEPER AND POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UP TO 0.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO MOIST. TUESDAY: OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IMPINGE ON THE AREA. THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TO HEREFORD TO GUYMON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY...WOULD EXPECT AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO MOIST. PREFER THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THAT RETURN FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEETING ADVISORY- LEVEL CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY 6 PM. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS VERY LOW. WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. HOWEVER...THE POLAR AIR MASS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MODIFY SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 40-DEGREE MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH ANY SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP KNOCK HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT NEXT WEEKEND...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. JACKSON FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 16/20
FXUS64 KLUB 052311 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 511 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .AVIATION... ONLY THING OF NOTE THIS CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUD COVER WITH BASES AROUND 6000FT MOVING NWD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND EVEN IF WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUD MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING FOR WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENING OVER TIME. H5 VORT MAX WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WILL BRING INCREASING SYNOPTIC LEVEL LIFT TO AREA THOUGH THE BEST LIFT WILL ARRIVE AFTER 00Z TUE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW STARTING ACROSS THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT EDGES IN MONDAY EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. LONG TERM... THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TUES MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...MID-LVL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM AND COUPLED LIFT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LOW-LVLS AND BRING A CHANCE OF LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING PRETTY QUICKLY SUCH THAT THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 12Z AND EXIT THE NORTHEAST AT 0Z. FCST SNDGS SUGGEST THAT THE TEMP PROFILE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW ON THE CAPROCK...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVAPORATIVE COOLING. GIVEN THE PARTLY MOISTURE...WE EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY ON TUES...WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 40F. BEYOND TUESDAY...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE BAJA REGION. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SW SPLNS BY WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. BY THU...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE SEND SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF BOTH THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A BIT IN FLUX...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEIR PASSAGE IN THE LATE THU TO EARLY FRI TIME FRAME WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIP. WHILE COOL...THE TEMP PROFILE LEANS TOWARD PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID AND AGAIN THE LOW-LOW MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LEAN...KEEPING ANY PRECIP ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY MAY NEED TO BE DELAYED A BIT. THEN...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW HEADING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 19 50 24 40 20 / 0 0 10 20 0 TULIA 19 49 29 42 20 / 0 0 10 20 0 PLAINVIEW 20 49 29 42 20 / 0 0 0 10 0 LEVELLAND 19 50 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 20 50 29 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 19 51 27 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 20 51 29 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 26 52 31 48 25 / 0 0 0 20 0 SPUR 26 52 31 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 26 53 31 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07
FXUS64 KSJT 052320 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 520 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS. && .AVIATION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS BACK AROUND TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HUBER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/ SHORT TERM... EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE ONCE AGAIN TRICKY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. 12Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLOUD COVER BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OVER THE AREA...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...SIDED CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM AND 4KM WRF ALSO MOVE A DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS...BUT DID LEAVE SILENT 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEDNESDAY...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EAST COAST. UNUSUAL TO SEE AN TROUGH DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROCESS. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH MAY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND TO GET OUT OF THE AREA. THIS STILL SETS THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. GFS IS THE WETTEST OF THE MODELS...FOCUSING ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIEST. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH...AND WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND NOT RAISE THEM AT THIS POINT. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS SHOWS THAT THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTIES GETTING THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS PINNED DOWN THIS MUCH IN ADVANCE AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 30 54 34 54 29 / 0 0 0 10 0 SAN ANGELO 34 56 33 58 35 / 10 0 0 0 10 JUNCTION 39 57 33 62 39 / 10 10 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HUBER
FXUS64 KMAF 052326 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 526 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL APPLY FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT. MID CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS CIRRUS COVERAGE INCREASES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 78
FXUS64 KEPZ 052251 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 351 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR NORTH...CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR OUR WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR OUR AREA...AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEV ELOPES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS PAIR OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICTS IDENTIFIES TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOVEMENT BEGINNING TO SLOW AS FORECAST BY POPULAR MODELS. FACTOR LEADING TO SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS A WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS...REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS AGREE WITH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS IN KEEPING LOW AS A CUT OFF FEATURE COLORADO FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE LOW...EACH WILL BRING SUBTLE REINFORCEMENT TO OUR SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BE FORCED TO HEAD EAST TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES KICKS THE FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA. THINGS GET INTERESTING STARTING MID WEEK...AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ...TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL START TO INTRODUCE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND W TX LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS IMPROVING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG GFS...AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...IN FORECASTING TRACK OF LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL PLACE IS US IN DESCENT PROXIMITY TO NE QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...FOR POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID WEEK...GIVEN DYNAMICS AND TRAJECTORIES FROM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTH AROUND THIS FEATURE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HINTING AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANCES MADE. NORTHERLY FLOW CARRIES ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARD OVER US LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TYPICALLY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PROVIDE GOOD UP SLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM MID WEEK SYSTEM...WE SHOULD HAVE INGREDIENTS SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND FOR ANOTHER RANGE OR TWO FURTHER WEST. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z. VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH FEW050 SCT-BKN200-250 EXPECTED. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z TO AOB 10KTS AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT SWITCHING TO THE WSW AFT 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE REGION WILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE BORDERLAND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 35 56 37 58 38 / 0 10 0 0 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 30 53 34 53 35 / 10 10 10 0 10 LAS CRUCES 33 55 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 31 55 31 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 21 35 21 39 22 / 10 10 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 54 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 SILVER CITY 31 44 30 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 DEMING 30 55 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 LORDSBURG 30 57 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 22/26
FXUS64 KLCH 052302
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
502 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN OVER SE TX/S LA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS AT AEX SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE VFR
BY 04Z. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CEILINGS ~10000 FT SHOULD DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT. N WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NE NEAR 10 KTS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z MON.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PAIR OF AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OF INTEREST TODAY. FIRST IS THE LARGE SWATH OF STRATIFORM PRECIP
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NWRN GULF...SPREADING POCKETS OF MOSTLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND IS
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN BACK OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHICH WAS
SHOWING UP MORE ON ITS ERN FLANK NEAR METRO HOUSTON BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR. COMBO OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
LEAD TO POPS AREAWIDE THIS EVENING...WITH BEST POPS OVER THE SERN
ZONES AND ERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE PERSISTENT AREA CURRENTLY
MARCHING OVERHEAD. 2ND AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
PLAINS STATES. WE FINALLY GET BACK TO SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMO
MINS TONIGHT...MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN FACT...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S EXTREME NWRN
ZONES.
NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF LATE
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THIS ONE TOO IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM ONLY INCLUDING SLIM POPS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM AS LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE OVER LAND WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE FOLLOWING IMPULSE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
THE MODELS TODAY BUT AGAIN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE SO LAND ZONES REMAIN POP-FREE FOR NOW.
LONG-RANGE MODELS AGAIN DIFFERING ON SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF BOTH BRING CUTOFF LOW TO VICINITY BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
LATE WEEK BUT GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER AND MORE NRN IN TRACK. EURO
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE FEATURES THIS
WINTER SO HAVE GONE WITH THAT SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ALOFT HEADING INTO THE GULF. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL POP FOR
A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SMALL COOLDOWN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW COASTAL OBS AND RIG
REPORTS SHOW 20+ KNOTS ON THE WATERS ATTM BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
RELAXING SHORTLY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RELAXES THE GRADIENT.
NEXT ROUND OF INCREASING NRLY FLOW IS SET FOR MID-WEEK AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN WITH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH SETTLING OVER THE
PLAINS.
CLIMATE...
BEEN TRYING TO SPIT THIS OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE WEATHER
HASNT ALLOWED IT. THE MONTH OF JANUARY AROUND SWRN LA/SERN WAS ONE
OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD AS ALL 5 LOCAL CLIMATE SITES REPORTED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPS.
THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR LAKE CHARLES WAS 59.3 DEGREES WHICH WAS 7.5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (1981-2010 NORMALS). THIS MARKS THE 3RD WARMEST
JANUARY ON RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1895)...THE WARMEST BEING 1950
(63.3 DEGREES).
THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR WAS 60.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS
7.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MARKS THE 5TH WARMEST JANUARY ON
RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1901)...THE WARMEST ALSO BEING 1950 (63.2
DEGREES).
THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR NEW IBERIA WAS 59.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 6.3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS ALSO MARKS THE 5TH WARMEST JANUARY ON
RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1948)...THE WARMEST ALSO BEING 1950 (66.1
DEGREES).
WHILE NOT REACHING THE TOP TEN IN WARMEST JANUARYS...LAFAYETTE (58.2
DEGREES/+5.7) AND ALEXANDRIA (54.2 DEGREES/+5.2) ALSO RECORDED MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL MONTHS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 41 61 42 62 43 / 30 0 10 10 10
KBPT 40 59 42 63 44 / 30 0 10 10 10
KAEX 40 59 41 60 40 / 20 0 10 10 10
KLFT 45 62 45 63 44 / 30 0 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
BAY.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KBRO 052017
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LIGHT RAIN AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS EAST. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S EXCEPT AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WILL
DECREASE LATTER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FOR MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE VALLEY AND AT THE BEACHES.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE BROWNSVILLE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS TWO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS WILL BE WATCHED. THE FIRST ONE IS WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES OPENS UP INTO SHORT WAVE AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE THE STRONGER
OF THE TWO TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
ALL DEPENDING ON TIMING OF HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE UPSTREAM ACCOMPANY
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS ALREADY HAVE PLAYED THESE TWO SYSTEMS UP AND THE
CURRENT PACKAGE IS ONLY AN UPDATE. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER THE REGION AS
THICKNESS LEVELS INCH UPWARD AND 85H WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. POPS TO INCREASE TO
LIKELY CHANCE WITH WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE COASTAL REACHES. AS
EARLIER FORECAST SUGGEST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR LATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH STRENGTHENS. AS ONE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE INITIATION OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS
TO INCREASE INLAND WITH INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE GULF WATERS WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING.
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY BUT
TIMING DIFFERS WITH ECMWF RUNNING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AT THIS
TIME. FORECAST SHOW POPS TRENDING DOWNWARD BUT MORE REFINEMENT IS
EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY AND
COOLER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATEST MEXMOS TRENDED DOWNWARD
AND THIS TREND WAS FOLLOWED.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 020
HAVE BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN 10 TO 12 FEET ALL MORNING BUT HAVE
RECENTLY SUBSIDED TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND GUST OF 35
KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT BUOY 020 AT 1450Z THIS MORNING BUT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE EAST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO INCREASE AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. ONCE THESE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE EXPECT
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OF WIND AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IF A GALE CENTER FORMS. IN
ANY CASE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 46 60 49 64 / 50 30 10 30
BROWNSVILLE 46 60 48 64 / 40 30 10 30
HARLINGEN 42 60 46 64 / 40 30 10 30
MCALLEN 45 61 48 62 / 40 20 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 63 46 61 / 30 10 10 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 46 61 52 65 / 50 30 10 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63/59
FLUS44 KFWD 052049 AAA HWOFWD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 249 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061215- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 249 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KSHV 051737 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA- NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE- FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG- HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ ELEVEN
FLUS44 KOUN 051718
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY FEB 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... THIS SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.
$$
MA/MAXWELL
FLUS44 KEWX 050953 HWOEWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 353 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061000- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 353 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KCRP 051030 HWOCRP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 430 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TXZ229>234-239>247-052200- LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL- JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN- 430 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-052200- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 430 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...THEN DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. $$ TMT/TE
FLUS44 KHGX 050957 HWOHGX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 357 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-061300- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY- MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO- TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON- 357 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KAMA 052051 HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 251 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061215- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 251 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ JACKSON
FLUS44 KLUB 052116 HWOLUB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 316 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TXZ021>044-062130- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 316 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH IN GENERAL...BUT LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. $$
FLUS44 KSJT 052039 HWOSJT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 239 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-062045- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 239 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KMAF 051900 HWOMAF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 100 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-061900- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 100 PM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 /1200 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
FLUS44 KEPZ 051259 HWOEPZ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 559 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-061300- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION- TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH- 559 AM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KLCH 051128 HWOLCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 528 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-061130- SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 528 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. $$ LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 061130- VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY- CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN- VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON- EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER- NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON- 528 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE REGION ...LOCAL RIVERS HAVE RISEN INTO...OR ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO FLOOD. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR BUNDICK CREEK AT BUNDICK LAKE...BAYOU NEZPIQUE NEAR BASILE...WHISKY CHITTO CREEK NEAR MITTIE AND PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT GLENMORA...OAKDALE...OBERLIN...KINDER AND OLD TOWN BAY. REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILED INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOCAL RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. $$
FLUS44 KBRO 051501 HWOBRO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 901 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-061115- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 901 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS RELAX. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS ONE OR TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS FORM OVER THE GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY WITH A GALE WATCH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREAS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ TXZ248>257-061115- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 901 AM CST SUN FEB 5 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. COMMUNITIES ACROSS WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS. SOME THE HEAVY RAIN WILL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES MONDAY...MODERATE ON TUESDAY AND BECOMING HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$