ACUS01 KWNS 300501 SWODY1 SPC AC 300459 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ERN STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD/OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IN ITS WAKE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. FARTHER W...STRENGTHENED WLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL STATES. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH/HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN SELY WINDS ACROSS SRN TX...SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES NRN MEXICO INTO SRN TX. ...SRN TX... MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER 00Z MONTERREY INTL AIRPORT RAOB HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX. ALTHOUGH A RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS LIMITED RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF...SELY WINDS AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY EARLY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FAVORABLY TIMED FORCING FOR ASCENT DRIFTS INTO SRN TX...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 01/30/2012
ACUS02 KWNS 291720 SWODY2 SPC AC 291719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE BY MONDAY WITH PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAMS. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN PLAINS. CUTOFF LOW NOW LOCATED NEAR THE SRN TIP OF BAJA SHOULD REACH SRN TX LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ...SRN TX... NEAR SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO SELY OVER THE WRN GULF AND ERN TX AS SURFACE RIDGE ADVANCES THROUGH SERN STATES AND LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH 50S DEWPOINTS TO RETURN TO SOUTH TX PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PROCESS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS SRN TX AND THE WRN GULF DURING THE DAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE. ..DIAL.. 01/29/2012
ACUS03 KWNS 290817 SWODY3 SPC AC 290816 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z WLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WITH 50S F NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION IN SE TX AND NW LA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE HOUSTON AND SHREVEPORT AREAS AT 21Z SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 750 J/KG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2012
ACUS48 KWNS 290957 SWOD48 SPC AC 290956 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL STATES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE QUICKLY WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE SYSTEM EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE AND IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. AT THIS POINT...PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON THURSDAY/DAY 5. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES ON FRIDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE ERN GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO AND THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT INCLUDE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT AREA IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2012
FXUS63 KDVN 300552 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. LLWS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE 1500-2000FT WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS ABOUT 09Z. AFTER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING...SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD INCREASE. HOW MUCH IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW DEEPLY WE CAN MIX IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO MINIMIZE MIXING...BUT HAVE ALSO SEEN THAT THE MODELS ARE ALSO OVERDOING THE SURFACE SNOW COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERLY STRONG INVERSION. THUS...HAVE ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...AND LIKELY WARMER TEMPERATURES. LLWS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS IN THE MORNING. BY EVENING BOTH LOW AND 1500FT WINDS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST. ..LE.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU JAN 28 2012/ SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER PASSING CLIPPER OVERNIGHT...WE FIND OUR CWA SQUARE IN THE SITES OF NEAR NORMAL WINTER DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO MID TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. OTHER THAN A FEW STREAKS OF CUMULUS...WE ARE CLEAR...WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS A FEW HOURS FROM STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE VERY SOON...AND BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PRODUCE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH A MID EVENING LOW...THEN RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MONDAY BECOMES A STRONG CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO A HIGH TEMP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE SATURATION FOR SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL NORTH...AND ONLY CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. MONDAY...WE SHOULD LOOSE ALL MID CLOUDS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY STILL BE OPAQUE THROUGH THE MORNING. OUR MIXING DEPTH BECOMES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHATTERED RECORDS...OR JUST A MILD WINTER DAY. IF WE MIX 2000 FT DEEP...WE WILL HIT THE UPPER 60S! HOWEVER...MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A VERY VERY SHALLOW 700 FT OF MIXING...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THIS SEEMS TOO CONSERVATIVE OVER SNOW FREE AREAS. WILL STAY THE COURSE AND FORECAST 40S NORTH...TO LOWER 50S I-80 CORRIDOR...TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE NIGHT SHIFT CAN MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS THERMAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT...BASED ON MIXING DEPTHS THAT OCCUR TO OUR WEST TODAY. ERVIN.. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER...UNLIKE MONDAY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WED AND THU PROVIDING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS OVERALL SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONSISTING OF A SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST THAT WOULD SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TRANSITION. CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT MIDDAY...12Z MODELS WERE ALREADY TRENDING A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN AN AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM SE TX ACROSS LA AND MS. THIS BLOCKING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE EASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VERIFYING AND SLOWER TRENDING NAM AND ECMWF...THAT GRADUALLY SATURATE A DEEP LAYER BELOW ABOUT 925 MB OVER THE CENTRAL AND AT LEAST SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED LATE MON NIGHT AS WELL. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT THAT IT WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ABOVE. WITH INITIAL CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY EVENING...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF CONSIDERABLE COOLING OVER THE REMAINING SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS THERE AROUND 30...WITH 30S SOUTH TO I-80 AND AROUND 40 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE...FOLLOWED BY AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TO THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS OVERDONE AND DEEPER MIXING OCCURS IN A DRIER AIRMASS...THERE WOULD BE A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE BUST WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WED AND THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THU...WHERE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST BRUSHING THE AREA. 12Z MODELS HAVE AGAIN ALTERNATED BACK TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...SIMILAR TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z RUNS LACKED THIS FEATURE...BUT WERE ALONG THE SAME LINES CONTINUING A CHANGE TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN... DEVELOPING A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. IN THE TRANSITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES IN THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION FROM LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THESE PERIODS ARE FILLED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...LOW END POPS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A COMPROMISE AMONG THE WIDE RANGING SOLUTIONS...OVERALL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS GET A GOOD ENOUGH HANDLE ON CRITICAL LARGE SCALE FEATURES TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO THESE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLOT 300540 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... 336 PM CST SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR ONLY GLANCING THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COMBO OF MOST FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY... THOUGH MODELS DEVELOP LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 290-295 K SURFACES DECREASING BELOW 10 MB DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY CLOSEST TO THE WI/IL BORDER BEFORE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSES ON JUST HOW WARM WELL GET WITH WARM-UP FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES. MODEL 950 HPA TEMPS RISE INTO THE +8 TO +10 RANGE MONDAY WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT 55-60 DEGREES AT THE SFC WITHOUT TAKING SNOW COVER INTO ACCOUNT. VIS SATELLITE PICS THIS AFTERNOON DO DEPICT AN AXIS OF DEEPER 2-3 INCH SNOW COVER IN PLACE FROM QUINCY TO PONTIAC AND KANKAKEE...AND WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH. GOING FORECAST ALREADY ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND SEEMS REASONABLE AS A FIRST GUESS...WITH ROUGHLY MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES END UP WARMER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE LOW LEVELS EVENTUALLY MOISTENING UP TUESDAY WITH PROFILES VERY SUGGESTIVE OF LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. TIMING OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY ALSO PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON TEMPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE 50S OR EVEN PERHAPS 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES VARY SOME WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD REMAIN OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. COOLER AIR SPREADS IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT IN ONLY A RELATIVE SENSE AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS MORE WESTERLY/ZONAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SPEAKING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND WITH EVOLUTION OF OVERALL PATTERN IN THE DAYS BEYOND. WHILE TRACKS/STRENGTH DIFFER...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN IN BEING MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO LOT CWA. THERMAL FIELDS NOT ALL THAT COLD SO HAVE HEDGED TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. MODELS BECOME EVEN MORE DIVERSE IN HANDLING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS/UPPER LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT COOLER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MORNING MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. * LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVING WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOW LEVELS NOT EXPECTED TO SATURATE THIS FAR SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION ON NOSE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS TO GUST INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH 50KT WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SUSPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL REACH THE AREA EVENTUALLY...BUT AFTER CURRENT TAF PERIOD. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LLWS POTENTIAL. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...-RA/-SN IN MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE. IZZI && .MARINE... 318 PM CST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND TURN WESTERLY. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. AS A RESULT...WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. THE WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE STEEP INVERSIONS OVER THE LAKE LIMITING MIXING. SO DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY GALES AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS PASSES NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE ON TUESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND. GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS...WITH THOSE SOLUTIONS CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR INSTANCE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. CURRENTLY KEPT THE ALLBLEND WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND THOSE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE ONCE THE MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JEE && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KILX 300541 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1141 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 900 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM...A CLIPPER THAT WILL COME THROUGH DRY LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES FELL PRETTY QUICKLY IN SOME SPOTS WITH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER...BUT THE THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE FALL TO SOME DEGREE FROM HERE ON OUT. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PLAN ON A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TRENDS...PRIMARILY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER THE SNOW AREAS IN THE NORTH. BAK && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1141 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ASIDE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND LLWS MONDAY EVENING...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A INCREASE/THICKENING OF A MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS IT APPROACHES/PASSES BY. HOWEVER...ANY LOWER CIGS AND/OR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER LATER MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...EVENTUALLY TRENDING SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND THE CLIPPER MONDAY MORNING. BAK && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 205 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM IOWA. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME VERY MILD TEMPERATURES THRU MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO OUR NORTH SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO BRING IN THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACRS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE MERCURY WILL BE CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 50S FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE MERCURY FROM RISING AS QUICKLY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA DURING THE AFTN AND AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. WARMEST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT ACRS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES...STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOWER 60S FORECAST ACRS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL FRONT SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INDUCING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS LOW AT BEST AS THIS IS ABOUT THE TIME PERIOD WHERE WE SEE POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LASTS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A COLDER AND MORE ACTIVE PRECIP REGIME ACRS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. MODELS DEPICTING A RATHER AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE WESTERN U.S. AND EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN CANADA. LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO HOW AMPLIFIED THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THAT VERY COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN SITTING UP ACRS PARTS OF ALASKA AND NW CANADA. CONFIDENCE WITH ANY ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS STILL POOR AS THE EURO HAS HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...IF ANY...OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NOAM...WITH THE OTHER MODELS NOT MUCH BETTER. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SAT NIGHT. CANADIAN AND ECMWF NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK...WITH THE GEM LOOKING TOO FAST BASED ON THE IDEA OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT WEST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO DIG THE ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT AND NOT EJECT THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBLEM WITH PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SMITH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 300441 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1041 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... /230 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL MO AT THIS TIME WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK INTO GEAR IN ITS WAKE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS REGIME STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY WITH DEEP LOWER TROP S-SWLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING. H85 TEMPS ARE NOW PROGGED A BIT WARMER RISING TO +8 TO +10 DEGC BY 00Z WED. TEMPERATURE-WISE THIS TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS OF 20+ DEGREES ABOVE LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. PERSITENT LOW LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE GREATER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE PERHAPS THE TRICKIEST IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS RATHER DRAMATIC ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES OF 90+ PERCENT IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL KM OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDDAY...INDICATIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS. PREVIOUSLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE COULD HAVE A DRIZZLE TYPE SCENARIO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BUT THE MOISTURE IS A TAD BETTER NOW AND THERE IS EVEN SOME VERY WEAK CAPE...WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF SHOWERS. POPS STILL ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE THREAT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION/SHOWERS RAMPS UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SW IL AS THE MOISTURE STRATIFICATION IMPROVES AND THE WEAK LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD SETTLE INTO SE MO AND SRN IL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY AND STILL MILD DAY FOR THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE A MIGRATING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL THEN INDUCE A SFC LOW ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WED NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD BACK NWD IN RESPONSE TO THIS MIGRATING SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED LIFT. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS STILL FULL OF UNCERTAINTY AND HAS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY AND VIRTUALLY NO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE PATTERN SUGGEST LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION WITH A RIDGE ALOFT IN THE WEST AND A TROF AND CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE U.S.. THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES GREATLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND TYPE. GLASS && .AVIATION... /1012 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE TGT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TGT...ESPECIALLY UIN AREA DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA. SELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED LATE TGT...THEN VEER AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION BY EARLY MRNG...AND SWLY AND GUSTY ON MON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LATE TGT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS IN UIN EARLY MON MRNG DUE TO A WLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER IA AND NRN IL BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE UIN TAF. JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON MON. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FT MAINLY LATE TGT. SELY SFC WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION BY EARLY MRNG...THEN STRONGER AND GUSTY FROM A SWLY DIRECTION ON MON. S-SWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE MON NGT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE MON NGT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO STL UNTIL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GKS && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN THOUGH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SUSTAINED WIND WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 16 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 10 HOUR FUELS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM BELOW 9 PERCENT TO 12-14 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOME OF THE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE SENSORS AT THE RAWS STATIONS. RECENT COLLABORATION WITH THE USFS SUGGESTS THAT DEAD FUELS MAY BE DRY ON TOP...BUT BE DAMP JUST BELOW THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE RISK OF UNCONTROLLED FIRES INSPITE OF OTHER FACTORS. THE DRIEST PART OF THE AREA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RECENTLY AS 2 DAYS AGO...AND THOSE AREAS HAVE HAD AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR MORE WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY WAS CONSIDERED...BUT REJECTED DUE TO THESE MITIGATING FACTORS. WILL ONLY MENTION HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER W.R.T. DEAD GRASSES IN ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. CARNEY && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 30TH KSTL 67 IN 1884 KCOU 68 IN 1890 RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 31ST KSTL 53 IN 1877 KCOU 46 IN 1923 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 300522 AAB AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN SWITCH WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING SOME CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA VERY BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO SURGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TONIGHT AND THAT TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT...AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP BRING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THIS IS DUE TO A JUMP IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE ZERO...INTO THE 7 TO 8 DEG C RANGE. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TO THE EAST COAST...A RETURN FLOW TYPE SITATION BEGINS TO UNFOLD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES AND DEEPENS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE 40/50 TYPE PROBABILITIES GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR ERRATIC BEHAVIOR FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW. LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE DOMINANT FEATURE IS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL REMAIN STOUT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO ODDS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT A COOL DOWN AS WELL...BUT NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A MAJOR COLD SNAP...OR JUST MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE GENERATED CLOSED STORM SYSTEMS AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERING LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IF IT IS EAST OF US...OR A FULL BLOWN WINTER STORM IF IT PASSES OVERHEAD AND THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE WILL BE 20-40 POPS OVER MOST AREAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...OTHERWISE JUST RAIN OR SHOWERS IS FORECAST. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...SREF...GFS AND ECMWF...AMPLIFY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD...THEY ALL BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE QPF OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT ALSO HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING...BUT SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...POPS ARE STILL ONLY LOW CHANCE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF 10-11 KFT CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY PRODUCING CIGS AT THE KEVV/KOWB SITES. COULD SEE 050-060 KFT CIGS AT THE KCGI/KPAH SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH EARLY MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM....RST
FLUS43 KDVN 291100 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 500 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301100- BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO- CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL- HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA- JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA- MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL- SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL- WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL- 500 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KLOT 292152 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 302200- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 /452 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE KANKAKEE RIVER NEAR SHELBY INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE KANKAKEE RIVER NEAR SHELBY INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-302200- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-302200- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ RATZER
FLUS43 KILX 292126 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 326 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ063-066>068-071>073-301200- CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND- 326 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WABASH... LITTLE WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-062-301200- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR- FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN- MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK- TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 326 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ HJS
FLUS43 KLSX 292112 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 312 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301130- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 312 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE HEIGHTENED DANGER IS PRIMARILY FOR DEAD GRASSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ GLASS
FLUS43 KPAH 292111 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KTOP 300537 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1137 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... UPPER PATTERN BEGINNING TO CHANGE TODAY WITH BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF AND WESTERN CONUS RIDING SLIDING EAST. RATHER STRONG 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONES WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUD THAT REACHED NORTHERN KANSAS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS MOVING OUT OF FAR EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z WITH WARM FROM DRAPED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE AGAIN FALLEN TO RATHER LOW LEVELS...THOUGH WINDS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CHECK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SHIFT DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ON MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MID CLOUD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME OVERNIGHT CIRRUS AS WELL...BUT CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...ALLOWING STRONG INVERSION TO SET UP...WITH RAPID WARMUP ON TAP FOR MONDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS ABOVE 30F ARE RARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS...MODEL DEWPOINTS PROGS FOR MONDAY ARE HARD TO SWALLOW. RECENT VERIFICATION DATA SUGGESTS GUIDANCE AVERAGING TO BE TOO LOW ON HIGH TEMPS AND TOO HIGH ON DEWPOINTS...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE KEPT HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND DROPPED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES. RECORD HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE SET....BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AGAIN PRESENT. WIND SPEEDS MAY NEAR LOW-END RED FLAG SPEEDS...BUT EVEN WITH THE BELOW-GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO THE MID 20S. OF COURSE THE SPECIFICS ON THESE VALUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 65 FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO EASTERN KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT A STRATUS DECK IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE STRATUS...THINK THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND NO REAL DEEP FORCING FOR CONVECTION...CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG OR DRIZZLE AND INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE EXPECTED STRATUS. THE CLOUDS COULD ALSO HAMPER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED THEM COOLER INTO THE MID 50S. THINK THE STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DUE TO POOR CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AND POOR CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW. IN GENERAL THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS BY THU. THEN TO VARYING DEGREES THE MODELS LEAVE BEHIND SOME ENERGY OR CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW. THIS IS ALMOST 180 DEGREES OPPOSITE FROM THE 00Z RUNS...WHICH WERE DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS. SO IN SHORT THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF ALL SOLUTIONS AND LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN LOWER HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE REGION. THEN TEMPS SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND AT SOME POINT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTH. SPECIFIC MAGNITUDES AND OTHER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER. WOLTERS && .AVIATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 KTS AT 1500 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THUS THE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LLWS CRITERIA FOR INSERTION WITHIN THE TAFS. AFTER 15Z...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 11 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 19 TO 23 KTS AND WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO FORM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GARGAN && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KICT 300507 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1107 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SIMILAR TO THE 00Z DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE BACKING BACK OFF AFTER SUNSET. A BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS. BILLINGS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. BILLINGS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. TONIGHT ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR KANSAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS VALUES. MON-WED WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER LEVELS INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MONDAY'S OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE JANUARY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND MOISTURE DEPTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WOULD ALSO HAMPER DAYTIME HIGHS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THEREFORE WE LOWERED THEM A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE NEXT SUITE OF MODEL RUNS. EXTENDED: THU-SUN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIPITATION SIGNALS WITH RATHER NOISY INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD...AND LATEST ECMWF MODEL NOW CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WE WILL RETAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH CONFIDENCE GROWING ON COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. JAKUB AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 31 64 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 31 66 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 NEWTON 31 64 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 31 64 41 59 / 0 0 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 31 65 45 60 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELL 27 68 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 28 68 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 SALINA 30 67 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 31 66 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 33 65 47 61 / 0 0 10 10 CHANUTE 32 64 47 57 / 0 0 10 10 IOLA 32 64 46 57 / 0 0 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 33 65 47 58 / 0 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDDC 300522 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1122 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST AS MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE FLOW TO HAVE BROUGHT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY, BUT THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS REMAINED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AND THE AIRMASS WAS COLDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ON THE 12Z KDDC SOUNDING AT +6 DEG C. WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ANTICIPATION THAT READINGS RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL BE ACHIEVED ACROSS THE MAJOR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, FOR TONIGHT, WE'D EXPECT THE COULD COVER TO BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET TRANSPORTING THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MORE ORTHOGRAPHIC LIFT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HOWEVER, SO ADDITIONAL THIN CIRRUS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THAT SOURCE AS WELL. AS SKY COVER MIGHT BE PROBLEMATIC, SO MAY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE BULK OF MODEL OUTPUT AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE IS PRODUCING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE FELT A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MOS SINCE THE MODELS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THE MOS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY EARLY MONDAY AS WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10-15 KNOTS MIX AND WARM THE AIR DRY ADIABATICALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING ON MONDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST, BUT IT IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS TO KNOW IF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (RED FLAG) WILL OCCUR ON A SMALLER AREAL SCALE. THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE EAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE WEST. ALSO DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE MODELS AND WE'VE UNDERCUT THESE DEW POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE HOWEVER TO HOIST A RED FLAG WATCH, BUT WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NOT AS COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT. A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY BUT THE MODELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN FACT FROM THE MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS THERE REALLY DOESN'T EVEN APPEAR TO BE MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION HOWEVER DURING THE MORNING, CREATING AT LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP IN EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. .LONG TERM... THE GFS,ECMWF, AND GEM WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES LATE TUESDAY. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS MID WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL SO IT STILL APPEARS THAT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THE CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLE AS THE GFS,ECWMF AND GEM CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS IN HOW THEY ATTEMPT TO HANDLE THE NEXT PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE WEEK. EACH NEW MODEL RUN OFFERING A NEW SOLUTION. DESPITE THESE DIFFERING IN SOLUTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE WEEK THE ONE ITEM THAT ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DO AGREE ON IS THE COOL DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE COOLING TREND THAT WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFTER GOOD COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE FAVOR A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD AOA 200. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 28 65 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 25 65 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 29 65 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 27 65 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 27 67 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 P28 32 67 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION...02
FXUS63 KGLD 300456 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 956 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... 320 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE DAKOTAS. A WARM AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE POTENTIAL FOR MID-WEEK PRECIP AS WELL AS COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DAY MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 70 DEGREE READING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BULK OF COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO KEPT MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TEMPS DURING THE TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY THOUGH STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT INSPECTION OF POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 750 MB THAT WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT PRESENCE OF THE NEAR- SURFACE DRY LAYER WILL PREVENT THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR THIS FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY FROM THURSDAY ON AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR CONSENSUS AS WELL AS POOR INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. TREND APPEARS TO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS THAN WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF OF BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. HIGHLY MERIDIONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR WARMER TEMPS WEST AND COOLER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOLTZ && .AVIATION... 955 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND VAD WIND DATA OVER KGLD IS SHOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE JET AND DEVELOPING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER KMCK...SO HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR GROUPS IN BOTH TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. CJS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 300446 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. LATE EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR KGRI SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES. BEEN ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST. ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA...THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE SEEN A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...SEEING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COAST...WHILE A TROUGH AXIS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EAST. THE AXIS IS SITTING ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT AT TIMES GUSTY SWRLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS ARE AGAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS PRESENT /THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY/...RH VALUES ARE FLIRTING WITH/BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT LIKE DEWPOINTS THE WINDS ALSO NOT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...SO THE CWA REMAINS ABOVE RFW CRITERIA. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS A DRY ONE...AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY...BUT AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF WESTERLY FLOW. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THAT TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA...AND WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SWRLY WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM UP IN TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE WINDS /THOUGH SPEEDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...A VERY NICE AFTERNOON REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED HIGHS...WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...BUT WITH PORTIONS OF NC ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY...UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL TO REACH RECORD HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES....SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FORE ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE DRY AIRMASS...FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WITH CLOUD COVER MORE PREVALENT ACROSS NC KS WITH 100KT H3 JET STREAK PASSING BY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTN WILL RETURN TEMPS TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FM THE SC ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS THE MOST ROBUST WITH SYSTEM AND PROGS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE WEDNESDAY AND GENERATES LIGHT QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLVLS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN TYPE. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS ROBUST WITH LIFT AND SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER VS PCPN AND MONITOR FOR SPRINKLE TYPE MENTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHICH MAY CUT OFF AS 12Z GFS SUGGESTS...OR REMAIN MORE OPEN AS 12Z ECMWF PROGS...WITH ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/COLD AIR. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGES MADE DURING EXTENDED PERIODS UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY RETURNS. CLIMATE...WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TRI CITIES TO APPROACH OR PERHAPS SURPASS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH. 64 DEGREES IS THE NUMBER TO BEAT FOR ALL THREE CITIES...AND ALL WERE SET IN 1931. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KTOP 300254 AAA HWOTOP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 854 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-310300- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 854 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KICT 292114 HWOICT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 314 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302115- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 314 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL CREATE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP $$
FLUS43 KDDC 292127 HWODDC HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 330 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301100- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 330 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 /230 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE AND A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 20 MPH. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC $$ RUSSELL
FLUS43 KGLD 291728 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1028 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301215- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 1028 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 /1128 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS43 KGID 300014 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 614 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 301200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 614 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS63 KGRR 300435
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012
LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...(320 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
A SURGE OF POLAR AIR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF US-131. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY. THAT WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
IN THE DAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BOARDER TUESDAY WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(320 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE AS THE
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AND NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT MONDAY MAY CAUSE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION ISSUES NEAR
AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
TOO.
AS FOR TONIGHT... THERE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL CYCLONIC BUT THEY WILL NOT BE FOR
LONG. THE DEEP COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING OUT
AS I WRITE THIS (AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS). THAT WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT SO EVEN THROUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE WEST WINDS WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
(-15C AT 850 MB)... THE SHALLOW CONVECTION (INVERSION HEIGHT BELOW
5000 FT AGL MOST OF THE NIGHT) WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW TO NOT
MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. THERE COULD BE A BUST OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS BRIEFLY JUMPING TO
7000 FT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EVEN SO...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND COLDEST AIR FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT... I HAVE THE HIGHEST
POP THERE BUT EVEN THERE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN AN INCH FROM THE
SNOW SHOWERS.
A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
TIME HOURS OF MONDAY. THAT CAUSES DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER MOST
OF THE CWA MONDAY DURING THE DAY. THERE NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC
OMEGAS THAT RESULT FROM THIS ARE IMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE NEAR ZERO
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS THAT RESULT FROM THIS... LITTLE
QUESTION THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY DURING THE
DAY. THIS TIME THROUGH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 96. TEMPERATURES JUMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON SO IT WILL
BE A SNOW TO RAIN SORT OF EVENT. ACTUALLY THROUGH BY THE TIME IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN IN MOST PLACES THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
GONE. SO FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE A SNOW EVENT.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN REMAINS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
NORTH DAKOTAS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. MONDAY NIGHT IT MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. TUESDAY ALL AREAS
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN DRIZZLE.
FINALLY ON TUESDAY WE GET MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OF FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. THE ISSUE HERE IS DOES
THE MOISTURE GET HERE BEFORE THE FRONT DOES? GIVEN HOW WET IT HAS
BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR... I AM THINKING THE MOISTURE WILL GET HERE IN
TIME SO WE WILL SEE A LIGHT RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THEN TOO.
&&
.LONG TERM...(335 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
OVERALL NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW REMAINS
MOSTLY ZONAL THAT WILL KEEP US ON THE QUIET SIDE. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WED...BUT THEN TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WED FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE EXITED THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY A DRIER NW FLOW. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THURSDAY. FEEL THE ZONAL FLOW WILL LARGELY KEEP THIS TO OUR SOUTH.
A FEW MORE QUESTION MARKS HAVE ARISEN BY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
THIS TIME THE GFS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
AND DIVES IT SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE EURO AND EVEN THE LAST
GFS WAS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LOW
POPS TO THESE PERIODS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(1135 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN SOME MVFR/IFR EXPECTED AS
SNOW BREAKS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE HOURS AND BE DONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR
MOVES UP OVER SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND. SOME DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT THIS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(320 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
I PLAN TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS IS SINCE THE
COLDEST AIR HAS YET TO COME IN AND THE BEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
ARE JUST COMING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AT 3 PM. WIND OBSERVATIONS
FROM COASTAL STATIONS SHOW 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS COMMON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...(320 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012)
THE OTHER ISSUE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS INCREASING RIVER LEVELS
DUE TO MELTING SNOW WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AND
MELTING SNOW ALONG WITH SOME RAIN. WE DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK IN PLACE...WELL AT LEST IT DOES NOT HAVE A HIGH WATER
CONTENT. IN ANY EVENT WITH THE MELTING SNOW TUESDAY AND SOME RAIN
COMING INTO THE AREA WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE NEARSHORE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS: WDM
SHORT TERM: WDM
LONG TERM: JK
AVIATION: OSTUNO
MARINE: WDM
HYDROLOGY: WDM
FXUS63 KIWX 300622 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 115 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 .AVIATION /06 UTC TAFS/... PRIMARY CHNGS WRT STRENGTHENING LLVL FLOW AND WHILE SFC WINDS WL BE GUSTY...SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR PARTIALLY DECOUPLING FM CORE OF INTENSE 2KFT JET CORE MIDDAY/AFTN AS WARM FNTL BNDRY FM WRN ND TO OZARKS ROTATES NEWD INTO SWRN GRTLKS. SOME CONCERN BYND CURRENT FCST PD/TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY/ FOR LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPMENT IN TURBULENT BLYR FLOW MOISTENED BY WITHERING SNOWPACK AND LATER FCST ITERATIONS TO FOCUS ON PROBABILITY OF OCCRNCE. .UPDATE... ONLY TWEAK TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 20 OR LOWER 20S IN SPOTS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL MORE SLOWLY OR STEADY OUT IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED MINS UPWARD PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING A RAPID END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS BY EVENING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE TEENS OVER NW INDIANA. HOWEVER...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET OVER NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL INCLUDING A DEEP DRY LAYER...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH BY LATE MONDAY WITH WITH MORE MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM... EXTREME VOLATILITY CONTS THIS PD AS LARGER SCALE PATTN AMPLIFIES INTO WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION...MARKED BY CONTD LOW CONTINUITY/LG MODEL SPREAD. HWVR LEAD SW TROUGH IN THIS TRANSITION HANDLED SIMILARLY TUE-WED RACES EWD THROUGH SE CANADA. TRAILING FNTL BNDRY TIMED W/NWD MSTR RTN WILL BRING A PD OF RAIN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT. COULD PROBABLY DROP TUE AFTN MENTION AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH ENOUGH OF A TIMING UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO HOLD W/THINGS AS IS. OTHERWISE PRIMARY DILEMMA THIS PD LIES W/RESULTANT SHAPE OF RIDGE/TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACRS NOAM W/GREATER SPREAD/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES RELATED TO DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF ERN TROUGH. DETAILS REMAIN VRY UNCERTAIN TIED TO LOW PREDICTABILITY BUT SOME CONFIDENCE DVLPS AS PORTRAYED BY 12Z GEM SOLUTION AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO 00/12Z ECMWF. THUS WILL HEDGE TWD THIS MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AND EXPAND PRIOR LOW CHC SNOW MENTION BACK TO ENCOMPASS FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO 12Z GFS SOLUTION ESP IN LIGHT OF CONTRASTING ENSEMBLE MEAN PATTN. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...T AVIATION...MURPHY UPDATE...MARSILI
FXUS63 KLOT 300540 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... 336 PM CST SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR ONLY GLANCING THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COMBO OF MOST FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY... THOUGH MODELS DEVELOP LOWERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 290-295 K SURFACES DECREASING BELOW 10 MB DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR COUNTIES GENERALLY CLOSEST TO THE WI/IL BORDER BEFORE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUSES ON JUST HOW WARM WELL GET WITH WARM-UP FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES. MODEL 950 HPA TEMPS RISE INTO THE +8 TO +10 RANGE MONDAY WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT 55-60 DEGREES AT THE SFC WITHOUT TAKING SNOW COVER INTO ACCOUNT. VIS SATELLITE PICS THIS AFTERNOON DO DEPICT AN AXIS OF DEEPER 2-3 INCH SNOW COVER IN PLACE FROM QUINCY TO PONTIAC AND KANKAKEE...AND WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH. GOING FORECAST ALREADY ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE AND SEEMS REASONABLE AS A FIRST GUESS...WITH ROUGHLY MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PLACES END UP WARMER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE LOW LEVELS EVENTUALLY MOISTENING UP TUESDAY WITH PROFILES VERY SUGGESTIVE OF LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. TIMING OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY ALSO PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON TEMPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE 50S OR EVEN PERHAPS 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES VARY SOME WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD REMAIN OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. COOLER AIR SPREADS IN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT IN ONLY A RELATIVE SENSE AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS MORE WESTERLY/ZONAL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SPEAKING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND WITH EVOLUTION OF OVERALL PATTERN IN THE DAYS BEYOND. WHILE TRACKS/STRENGTH DIFFER...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BOTH BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF VERY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN IN BEING MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO LOT CWA. THERMAL FIELDS NOT ALL THAT COLD SO HAVE HEDGED TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MENTION AT THIS POINT BUT THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. MODELS BECOME EVEN MORE DIVERSE IN HANDLING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS/UPPER LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT COOLER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MORNING MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. * LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT GIVING WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LOW LEVELS NOT EXPECTED TO SATURATE THIS FAR SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION ON NOSE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS TO GUST INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH 50KT WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SUSPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL REACH THE AREA EVENTUALLY...BUT AFTER CURRENT TAF PERIOD. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LLWS POTENTIAL. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...-RA/-SN IN MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE. IZZI && .MARINE... 318 PM CST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND TURN WESTERLY. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. AS A RESULT...WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. THE WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE STEEP INVERSIONS OVER THE LAKE LIMITING MIXING. SO DESPITE THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY GALES AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS PASSES NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE ON TUESDAY. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND. GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS...WITH THOSE SOLUTIONS CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR INSTANCE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. CURRENTLY KEPT THE ALLBLEND WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND THOSE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE ONCE THE MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SINGLE SOLUTION. JEE && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KIND 300447 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1148 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE... AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK...AROUND THURSDAY. A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST WAS TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SINCE SUNSET ALREADY APPROACHING EARLIER FORECAST LOWS. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 20 GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE AND THAT LOOKING LIKE IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DID NOT TAKE ANYWHERE BELOW 20 DEGREES...BUT DID BRING MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND JUST LEFT UPPER 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WITH HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY STEADYING OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/... MODEL DATA INDICATE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. APPEARS MOST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN AN UPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF LIFT TO DEVELOP BY THEN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS...ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-55 KTS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR PRECIPITATION BY THAT TIME AS WELL...GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOP AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD STILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IF THE SLOWER TIMING IS MORE ACCURATE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE THE GFS MOS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS FROM QUASI-ZONAL TO A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U S AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HOW EXACTLY THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE AND THE IMPACTS TO WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS HIGHLY IN QUESTION AS THE EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AGAIN PROVIDES A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS WITH DIFFERENT MODELS INDICATING VARYING DEGREES OF PHASING AMONGST THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. HAVE THEREFORE REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OP GFS BOTH KEEP THE WAVE WEAKER AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...OP GFS DID SHIFT NORTH A BIT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER RUNS...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT IN THE REGION SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY UNTIL MODELS CAN BETTER RESOLVE THE DETAILS. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN U S TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND SPECIFICALLY HOW MUCH PHASING OF ENERGY ALOFT OCCURS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OP GFS PRESENTS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS PHASED SOLUTION WHILE BOTH THE GGEM AND ECMWF GO THE OTHER WAY WITH MORE PHASING. REGARDLESS...EXTENDED MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR SNOWFALL AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MONDAY BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 15Z OR 16Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE REST OF OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL STILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 13 KNOTS. MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING OUT BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....RYAN AVIATION...JH
FXUS61 KILN 300528 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1228 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WORK WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND REMAINING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY MOVING OFF. HOWEVER CIRRUS IS ALREADY ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE THIN. BUT THICKER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCROACHING BEFORE DAYBREAK. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS. BUT GENERAL IDEA OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL WRING OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL STARTING MONDAY. TUESDAY COULD BE SNEAKY WARM AS TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60 WILL BE ADVECTED IN ON STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS FROPA BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A VERY QUICK SHOT WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE THIS FAR OUT...AT LEAST AS FAR AS A RAPID START/ENDING TO IT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO TWO MODELS INDICATING THE SAME SOLUTION...SO CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE IS VERY LOW. PERIOD BEGINS WITH CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING THE FA AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. MODELS BEGIN THEIR DIVERGENCE HERE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOW TO PUSH THE FNT AND PCPN THRU THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM AND CMC DRY THINGS OUT BY 18Z WED. LEANED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SO WENT AHEAD AND LINGERED PCPN INTO THE AFTN. THE ECMWF THEN SWINGS A COMPACT S/W INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A CLOSED SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE AND A GOOD AREA OF RAIN IS PUSHED BACK INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE MUTED SFC LOW AND KEEPS AN PCPN IN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SRN OH...WHILE THE CMC SHOWS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE...SO LEANED TOWARDS THE COMPROMISE GFS SOLUTION. ALL MODELS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BUILDING WRN U.S. H5 RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. THEIR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W DIFFER AND THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE ERN TROF IS DIFFERENT. THE GFS PUTS MORE ENERGY INTO A NORTHERN STREAM S/W THAT DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES IT PULLS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF TRIES TO PHASE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND KICKS OUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CMC KICKS THE SRN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NRN ENERGY AND IS THEREFORE ABOUT 24 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN KICKING A SYSTEM EWD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE ENERGY NEXT WEEKEND WITH EACH MODEL RUN. DECIDED TO GO CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION. AT LEAST IT IS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. SO FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BROUGHT SOME RA/SN CHANGING TO SN INTO THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN ACROSS THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER 14Z. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO
FXUS63 KLMK 300507 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1206 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Well other than the winds, it ended up being a pretty gorgeous afternoon with nearly full sun and temperatures climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds have slacked off a bit and will continue to do so as we approach sunset and thereafter. Any remaining gusts will likely stay below 35 mph over the next 1-2 hours, so we will let the wind advisory expire. No other changes to the forecast, and the update will be out momentarily. && .Short Term (Tonight and Monday)... Gusty winds continue this afternoon across the forecast area. The highest wind gusts seen thus far are across the Bluegrass, though gusts across north central Kentucky and southern Indiana are fairly similar. Will go ahead and keep the Wind Advisory in the Bluegrass this afternoon as soundings indicate gusts will continue to increase over the next few hours before relaxing after sunset. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the region overnight in the wake of the cold front. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Initially clear skies this evening will give way to some clouds moving in from the northwest late tonight. This should not hamper temps from falling into the upper 20s, however. As the high pressure shifts off to the southeast tomorrow, winds will once again swing around to southwesterly. With a tightening pressure gradient during the day, we will once again see gusty conditions late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be just a bit weaker than today, though gusts to 30 mph can be expected. High temperatures tomorrow should top out in the mid to upper 50s. .Long Term (Monday Night through Sunday)... Monday night the region will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure near the Carolina coast. Flow aloft will be somewhat zonal. Tuesday night, an upper wave is forecast to move into the Northern Great Lakes. Expect the surface pressure gradient to tighten up some during the day Tuesday, as our region will be between that high pressure to the southeast and the associated cold front moving ahead of this upper low. This front looks to move into the region Wednesday during the day. The 12Z GFS and 00Z/12Z ECMWF develop another quick-hitting system behind this front. This system however looks to come from a different direction, the central and southern Plains area. A surface low looks to form over the mid MS river valley and act to hold the previous front over the region. Will get in some Gulf moisture ahead of this feature and thus should see better precip chances Thursday. Previous forecaster mentioned that models are not handling this system well, with the 00Z ECMWF much stronger than the others and the GEM_nh having high pressure over us at the time, I cannot disagree! Thus this part of the forecast, from Thursday on, has lower confidence. One factor that gives a little more confidence is a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. We have spent all of this winter in the positive phase, and the sign changed in the last week. Exact timing of the impulses is difficult as well as where we would be within those systems for the purposes of precip type so have kept in slight chance to chance for precip each day/night. Temperatures Tuesday continue to look warm because of that strong southwesterly flow. Have readings into the 60s everywhere. Lows that night should only dip into the low 50s, though a few spots could get into the upper 40s. Highs Wednesday will depend on how quickly the rain settles in and how much the southwest winds ahead of the front are able to overcome the cooling rains. After that have gone with a general cooling trend through Sunday, but a lot will depend on the evolution of the systems mentioned above. && .Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with only some mid and upper level clouds expected courtesy of a low pressure located well to our NW. The main TAF concern will once again be winds although they will not be as strong as they were Sunday. Calm or light and variable winds will begin to increase toward sunrise becoming predominantly out of the S or SE. By this afternoon, we'll be in good return flow on the NW side of sfc high pressure over the Gulf states. This will result in SW winds around 10-13 kts with gusts in the 17-20 kt range. Winds will decrease around sunset tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. $$ Update...........AL Short Term.......EER Long Term........RJS Aviation.........AMS
FXUS63 KPAH 300522 AAB AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN SWITCH WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING SOME CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA VERY BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO SURGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TONIGHT AND THAT TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT...AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP BRING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THIS IS DUE TO A JUMP IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE ZERO...INTO THE 7 TO 8 DEG C RANGE. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TO THE EAST COAST...A RETURN FLOW TYPE SITATION BEGINS TO UNFOLD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES AND DEEPENS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE 40/50 TYPE PROBABILITIES GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR ERRATIC BEHAVIOR FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW. LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE DOMINANT FEATURE IS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL REMAIN STOUT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO ODDS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT A COOL DOWN AS WELL...BUT NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A MAJOR COLD SNAP...OR JUST MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE GENERATED CLOSED STORM SYSTEMS AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERING LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IF IT IS EAST OF US...OR A FULL BLOWN WINTER STORM IF IT PASSES OVERHEAD AND THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE WILL BE 20-40 POPS OVER MOST AREAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...OTHERWISE JUST RAIN OR SHOWERS IS FORECAST. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...SREF...GFS AND ECMWF...AMPLIFY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD...THEY ALL BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE QPF OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT ALSO HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING...BUT SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...POPS ARE STILL ONLY LOW CHANCE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF 10-11 KFT CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY PRODUCING CIGS AT THE KEVV/KOWB SITES. COULD SEE 050-060 KFT CIGS AT THE KCGI/KPAH SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH EARLY MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM....RST
FLUS43 KGRR 292103 HWOGRR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 405 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-301115- MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON- MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON- INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 405 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN...SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF US-131. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING A AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY DURING THE DAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WHERE THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH AN CHANCE GO ICE PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN FOR AT TIME LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREA OF FOG AS THE WARM AIR SPREADS OVER THE SNOW COVERED GROUND SLOWLY MELTING IT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER PLEASE SEND SNOWFALL REPORTS TO OUR WEB SITE...HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/ (ALL SMALL LETTERS) $$ LMZ844>849-301115- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI- 405 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WAVES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HOLLAND. FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ WDM
FLUS43 KIWX 292138 AAA HWOIWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 438 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-302145- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 438 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 /338 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$ LMZ043-046-302145- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 438 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE $$
FLUS43 KLOT 292152 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 302200- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 /452 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE KANKAKEE RIVER NEAR SHELBY INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE KANKAKEE RIVER NEAR SHELBY INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-302200- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-302200- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 352 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ RATZER
FLUS43 KIND 300027 AAA HWOIND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 727 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-052-054>057-062>065-072-310030- CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON- DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY- MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR- JENNINGS- 727 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAZARDS: NONE. TIMING: NONE. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DISCUSSION: A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND... BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. .SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-053-060-061-067>071-310030- WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-OWEN-SULLIVAN- GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON- 727 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG AREA RIVERS. HAZARDS: LOW LAND FLOODING. TIMING: ONGOING. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LAND FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS THE RESULT OF PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK: FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DISCUSSION: A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND... BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. .SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ CP
FLUS41 KILN 292339 HWOILN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>063-065-070>072-074-077>081-302345- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-FAIRFIELD- BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS- 639 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ OHZ064-073-082-088-302345- PICKAWAY-ROSS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 639 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ALONG THE SCIOTO RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL RIVER POINTS ALONG THE SCIOTO RIVER WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS43 KLMK 292304 HWOLMK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 603 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-302315- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY- CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 603 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 /503 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ AL
FLUS43 KPAH 292111 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KARX 300512 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1112 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING 1111 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94 CONTINUES TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. BAND OF SNOW AND VIRGA INDUCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-900MB WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE 15-20C. THIS DRY LAYER HAS ONLY ALLOWED THE SNOW TO DROP SOUTH TO PARK RAPIDS MINNESOTA. ON WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY AT 05Z...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE APPARENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...ANTICIPATING THE BAND OF SNOW AND VIRGA TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. FIGURE LATE TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW...SINCE THAT WILL ALLOW THE LONGEST TIME TO MOISTEN. THIS AREA IS ALSO WHERE A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVEN THE 30.00Z HRRR/NAM SUGGEST THE SNOW COULD EVEN FALL JUST OVER TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. NOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE DRY AIR BEING SUCH A CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FIRST PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND IS AHEAD OF A WARM LAYER SURGE ALOFT...THINKING ANY TYPES OTHER THAN SNOW WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO OCCUR. IF ANY OTHER TYPE WOULD OCCUR...SLEET WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED RISING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS RISING TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES MARCHING EAST...CROSSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 231 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE 29.12Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH IT DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA WHILE THE 29.12Z ECMWF DROPS IT FURTHER WEST AND PHASES IT WITH ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING A LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE REGION...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. THE 29.12Z GEM- NHEM PAINTS A MUCH DEEPER CLOSED LOW TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FLIP FLOPPING THAT HAS OCCURRED WITH HOW TO HANDLE THESE LOWS...BUT FOR NOW IT WARRANTS THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY 1111 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z TODAY. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS EXISTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL OUT OF THIS STRATUS...LIKE WHAT OCCURRED AT NEW ULM MINNESOTA AT 05Z...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN JUST FLURRIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT CONCERN THAT MVFR BR/HZ COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO MELTING SNOW. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY TOO...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR THE BR/HZ TO FORM. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT AT THIS TIME. PLAN ON THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT TO VEER WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...TO THE SOUTH AT KLSE AND SOUTHWEST AT KRST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 231 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...HALBACH AVIATION...AJ
FXUS63 KFSD 300422 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1022 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE RAISE LOWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BY 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES MAY TANK MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE BUFFALO RIDGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 214 PM CST/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK TOGETHER TO SPREAD AN AREA OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...WREAKING HAVOC ON THE DIURNAL CURVE. TRIED TO CHALK SOMETHING IN THAT WILL REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BASICALLY...SOMETHING CLOSE TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN MIXING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS A LITTLE WARMING...THEN BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z THE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUITE A BIT SO TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BACK DOWN AGAIN BEFORE CLIMBING QUICKLY BETWEEN ABOUT 10AM AND 3PM MONDAY. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS FROM NEAR 20 IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING BACK IN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT MONDAY. DID HOWEVER SNEAK SOME MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE FORECAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. VERY WARM 925MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWER 60S BUT WITH SNOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND RECENTLY MELTED SNOW THE GROUND MAY BE JUST WET ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM REACHING THE ABSOLUTE POTENTIAL LIKE PREVIOUSLY THIS MONTH. /08 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA AND ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH THE CLOUDS LOWS WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON TUESDAY AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 18 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO EVEN THOUGH 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...2 TO 6C...IT WILL BE WELL-MIXED ACROSS THE AREAS SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18 WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS EXPECT LOWS TO BE NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY GENERALLY 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND LOWER 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY. IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS CERTAIN TO BE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL BIASES WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST AMPLIFIED WHICH ACTS TO KEEP RELATIVELY COLD AIR OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE LEAST AMPLIFIED AND HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BUT FAVORING A MORE FLAT SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY AS A WEAK FRONT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE 925 MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AND AGAIN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING LIGHT WESTERLY AND SOME SUN...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME MIXING. ADD TO THE FACT THAT THE SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ERODED A LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS OF WARM WEATHER AND EXPECTATION IS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 30S IN SW MN AND 40S OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE NEBRASKA AND NW IA. AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STUCK NEAR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS AT OR BLO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHICH STAYS IN THE MID 30S. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT THAT WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND DID RAISE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WILL BE NEARBY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A REAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND STAYED DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE BKN080 THROUGH 12Z AND THEN NO CEILINGS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDMX 300521 AAB AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1120 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSUE OVERNIGHT AS TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT PASSES FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA WHERE DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS. CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE DRY LAYER IS MOST SHALLOW IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FLURRIES DURING THE LATE EVENING WHEN WAA IS STRONGEST...OTHERWISE HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD HELP READINGS TO STALL AND EVEN RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE STATE. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM DRAMATICALLY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH. SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH WEAKLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE A BIT LACKLUSTER...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE ATTM WITH MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS UPPER PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT MODELS HAVE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT PLACEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT LOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR END OF PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.. ATTM TEMPS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN...WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...30/06Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CIGS FL070-150 EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...CLEARING ON MONDAY MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT KMCW/KALO NEXT SEVERAL HRS BUT UNLIKELY AND OF NO IMPACT SO NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. OTHERWISE NO PRECIP OR OBSCURATIONS. WINDS TURNING SSE TO SW BUT LESS THAN 12 KT THROUGHOUT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...COGIL LONG TERM...AWB AVIATION...LEE
FXUS63 KDVN 300552 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. LLWS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE 1500-2000FT WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS ABOUT 09Z. AFTER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING...SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD INCREASE. HOW MUCH IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW DEEPLY WE CAN MIX IN THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO MINIMIZE MIXING...BUT HAVE ALSO SEEN THAT THE MODELS ARE ALSO OVERDOING THE SURFACE SNOW COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERLY STRONG INVERSION. THUS...HAVE ANTICIPATED DEEPER MIXING WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS...AND LIKELY WARMER TEMPERATURES. LLWS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS IN THE MORNING. BY EVENING BOTH LOW AND 1500FT WINDS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST. ..LE.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST THU JAN 28 2012/ SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER PASSING CLIPPER OVERNIGHT...WE FIND OUR CWA SQUARE IN THE SITES OF NEAR NORMAL WINTER DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO MID TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. OTHER THAN A FEW STREAKS OF CUMULUS...WE ARE CLEAR...WITH EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS A FEW HOURS FROM STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE VERY SOON...AND BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PRODUCE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH A MID EVENING LOW...THEN RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MONDAY BECOMES A STRONG CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO A HIGH TEMP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE SATURATION FOR SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL NORTH...AND ONLY CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. MONDAY...WE SHOULD LOOSE ALL MID CLOUDS...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY STILL BE OPAQUE THROUGH THE MORNING. OUR MIXING DEPTH BECOMES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHATTERED RECORDS...OR JUST A MILD WINTER DAY. IF WE MIX 2000 FT DEEP...WE WILL HIT THE UPPER 60S! HOWEVER...MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A VERY VERY SHALLOW 700 FT OF MIXING...AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THIS SEEMS TOO CONSERVATIVE OVER SNOW FREE AREAS. WILL STAY THE COURSE AND FORECAST 40S NORTH...TO LOWER 50S I-80 CORRIDOR...TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE NIGHT SHIFT CAN MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS THERMAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT...BASED ON MIXING DEPTHS THAT OCCUR TO OUR WEST TODAY. ERVIN.. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HOWEVER...UNLIKE MONDAY...THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WED AND THU PROVIDING CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS OVERALL SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN CONSISTING OF A SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST THAT WOULD SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TRANSITION. CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE AREA IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT MIDDAY...12Z MODELS WERE ALREADY TRENDING A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN AN AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM SE TX ACROSS LA AND MS. THIS BLOCKING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE EASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VERIFYING AND SLOWER TRENDING NAM AND ECMWF...THAT GRADUALLY SATURATE A DEEP LAYER BELOW ABOUT 925 MB OVER THE CENTRAL AND AT LEAST SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED LATE MON NIGHT AS WELL. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT THAT IT WILL BE DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ABOVE. WITH INITIAL CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY EVENING...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF CONSIDERABLE COOLING OVER THE REMAINING SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS THERE AROUND 30...WITH 30S SOUTH TO I-80 AND AROUND 40 IN THE FAR SOUTH. TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE...FOLLOWED BY AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TO THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS OVERDONE AND DEEPER MIXING OCCURS IN A DRIER AIRMASS...THERE WOULD BE A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE BUST WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WED AND THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS UNDER A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THU...WHERE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST BRUSHING THE AREA. 12Z MODELS HAVE AGAIN ALTERNATED BACK TO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR DESERT SW OVER THE WEEKEND...SIMILAR TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THE 00Z RUNS LACKED THIS FEATURE...BUT WERE ALONG THE SAME LINES CONTINUING A CHANGE TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN... DEVELOPING A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. IN THE TRANSITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES IN THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION FROM LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THESE PERIODS ARE FILLED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...LOW END POPS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A COMPROMISE AMONG THE WIDE RANGING SOLUTIONS...OVERALL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS WEEK BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE DAYS BEFORE MODELS GET A GOOD ENOUGH HANDLE ON CRITICAL LARGE SCALE FEATURES TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO THESE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 300052 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 652 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID LEVE CLOUDS. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 20Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. POOL OF WARM AIR STAYS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS IN COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WINDS WHICH MODELS INDICATE SHOULD STAY UP AND ALLOW LOWER LEVELS TO STAY MIXED WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RECORD HIGHS STILL INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN (GEM) WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC UP TO ABOUT 160 WEST. THEN A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN ABOUT 120 AND 130 WEST. THIS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND A CLOSED LOW FORMS OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. USING A MODEL BLEND...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO 34 NORTH / 140 WEST AT 12Z SATURDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE INITIAL DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING OVER THE CONUS INCREASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH TO THE ENERGY COMING DOWN FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND GEM...HAVING BEEN INDICATING FORMATION OF A CLOSE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO FRIDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER POOR AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE SOLUTION DROPS TO OR BELOW NORMAL. USING THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA...EXPECT MOST OF THE PERIOD TO BE DRY. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY...THEN 35 TO 45 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S. AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99
FLUS43 KARX 292100 HWOARX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-301200- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 300 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREA ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK SHOULD LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OCCUR. AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...WITH A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LEADING TO SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE... RANGING FROM A TRACE TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... REPORTS OF ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. $$ WETENKAMP
FLUS43 KFSD 291021 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 0421 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-301200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 0421 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$ WILLIAMS
FLUS43 KDMX 291115 HWODMX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 515 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>097-301200- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN- WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER- POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION- CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE- DAVIS- 515 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ SMALL
FLUS43 KDVN 291100 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 500 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301100- BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO- CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL- HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA- JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA- MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL- SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL- WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL- 500 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KOAX 292207 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 407 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301215- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 407 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. $$ FOBERT
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FXUS63 KEAX 300551
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Made some upward adjustments on overnight lows over the sw 1/2 of
the CWA while the ne 1/2 should see overnight temperatures stabilize
and then rise a bit during the pre-dawn hours. Have seen
temperatures increase a few degrees as a surface trough moves
through eastern KS and southwest corner of CWA. Pretty good waa
overspreading the CWA and surface winds may stay up enough to
provide enough mixing under the broken high clouds to minimize
normal nocturnal cooling cycle.
MJ
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/321 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/
Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Near record warmth and fire weather concerns Monday remain the short
term weather highlights.
Recent satellite imagery shows the bulk of mid-high cloud cover
already beginning to shift north as upper flow begins to flatten
under the influence of weak upstream ridging. More prevalent
sunshine has allowed temperatures to reach the 50 degree mark yet
again, with the exception of far northeast Missouri where light snow
cover has kept readings in the upper 30s.
A dramatic increase in lower tropospheric temperatures will continue
through tonight as westerly winds spread across the Plains. With
cloud cover now expected to be a non-issue on Monday, the potential
for near-record highs looks much more certain. Have nudged up maxes
another degree or two, and given 925mb temp progs would not be
surprised to see a few isolated upper 60s given the favored
southwest surface winds. The record of 68 at Kansas City is one of
the longest standing records left (set in 1890) to this would be
quite a feat.
Dewpoint forecast remains the most challenging, with models having
grossly overforecast dewpoints on day 1 of nearly every warm spell
this season. Current surface analysis shows 30F+ dewpoints
restricted to Deep South Texas, with offshore or shore-parallel flow
prevailing across the western Gulf. Simply put, with -10 to -20C
dewpoints atop the boundary layer, models are simply off their
rockers with upper 30s to lower 40F dewpoints advecting into the
area tomorrow, especially given the continental wind
vectors...nevermind vertical mixing. Have made dramatic cuts to
dewpoints tomorrow with modified Gulf return not anticipated until
later Monday night. Given ambient conditions and mixing potential,
these cuts may still not be enough, and thus the potential for RH
values to plummet to near 20%. Therefore, went ahead with a fire
weather watch for tomorrow afternoon for all but northeast Missouri.
Should my hunch be correct, would expect a red flag warning to be
posted tonight.
Otherwise, moisture will begin to surge into the area ahead of a
weak front later Monday night, accompanied by a rapidly broadening
expanse of stratus. Low clouds, drizzle and fog will likely restrict
warming into the day Tuesday, and the current forecast looked
reasonable in these aspects. Clearing should take place from the
northwest Tuesday night, but with high pressure spilling off the
Colorado Rockies and a weak pressure gradient, the cool down will be
modest at best.
Bookbinder
Medium Range (Wednesday - Sunday):
Confidence in regards to the extended forecast remains low as models
are still struggling with the timing/location/intensity of a pattern
change from quasi-zonal to very meridional flow. There is general
agreement that a ridge will begin to build across the eastern
Pacific later this week and spread eastward into the western CONUS
Thursday into Friday. The response to this ridging is for troughing
to develop across the eastern half to two-thirds of the CONUS. And
this is where models are struggling, both run to run and amongst
themselves and their ensembles. By Friday, ensemble standard
deviation really increases across the region with values approaching
10 decameters and there could be a closed low anywhere from roughly
the Four Corners area to the Great Lakes. Given the huge uncertainty
for this period did not deviate much from the forecast
initialization. One minor change was to reduce precipitation chances
as confidence is just not high enough to justify mentioning a chance
of anything at this time. Also, even though there is poor agreement
regarding the details of the Eastern CONUS troughing there is
general agreement that the area should remain in or be close to the
cyclonic flow aloft which favors a cooling trend and we should be
more likely to see temperatures closer to normal heading into the
weekend.
CDB
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for January 30:
Kansas City...68 set in 1890
St. Joseph....64 set in 1988
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs...Borderline LLWS conditions overnight as wind
profilers at 925mb currently running around 30kts and expected to
increase to 35 kts. However, surface winds should be in the 10-13kt
range overnight. Will need to re-evaluate should they weaken below
that and the profiler winds increase. Otherwise, VFR conditions
continue.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ001>005-011>015-
020>023-028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
&&
$$
FXUS63 KLSX 300441 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1041 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... /230 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CENTERED THROUGH CENTRAL MO AT THIS TIME WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK INTO GEAR IN ITS WAKE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS REGIME STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY WITH DEEP LOWER TROP S-SWLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING. H85 TEMPS ARE NOW PROGGED A BIT WARMER RISING TO +8 TO +10 DEGC BY 00Z WED. TEMPERATURE-WISE THIS TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS OF 20+ DEGREES ABOVE LATE JANUARY AVERAGES. PERSITENT LOW LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. IN FACT THE LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE GREATER THAN THE NORMAL HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE PERHAPS THE TRICKIEST IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IS RATHER DRAMATIC ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH ALL THE MODELS SHOWING VALUES OF 90+ PERCENT IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL KM OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA BY MIDDAY...INDICATIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS. PREVIOUSLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE COULD HAVE A DRIZZLE TYPE SCENARIO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BUT THE MOISTURE IS A TAD BETTER NOW AND THERE IS EVEN SOME VERY WEAK CAPE...WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF SHOWERS. POPS STILL ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE THREAT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION/SHOWERS RAMPS UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MO AND SW IL AS THE MOISTURE STRATIFICATION IMPROVES AND THE WEAK LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD SETTLE INTO SE MO AND SRN IL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY AND STILL MILD DAY FOR THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE A MIGRATING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL THEN INDUCE A SFC LOW ON THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON WED NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD BACK NWD IN RESPONSE TO THIS MIGRATING SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED LIFT. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS STILL FULL OF UNCERTAINTY AND HAS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GREAT VARIABILITY AND VIRTUALLY NO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE OVERALL TRENDS IN THE PATTERN SUGGEST LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION WITH A RIDGE ALOFT IN THE WEST AND A TROF AND CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE U.S.. THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THESE FEATURES GREATLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY AND TYPE. GLASS && .AVIATION... /1012 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEWD THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE TGT. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 700 MB...DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TGT...ESPECIALLY UIN AREA DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA. SELY SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED LATE TGT...THEN VEER AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION BY EARLY MRNG...AND SWLY AND GUSTY ON MON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT LATE TGT. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS IN UIN EARLY MON MRNG DUE TO A WLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER IA AND NRN IL BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE UIN TAF. JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON MON. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FT MAINLY LATE TGT. SELY SFC WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO A SLY DIRECTION BY EARLY MRNG...THEN STRONGER AND GUSTY FROM A SWLY DIRECTION ON MON. S-SWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE MON NGT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE MON NGT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO STL UNTIL AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GKS && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN THOUGH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SUSTAINED WIND WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 16 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 10 HOUR FUELS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM BELOW 9 PERCENT TO 12-14 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOME OF THE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE SENSORS AT THE RAWS STATIONS. RECENT COLLABORATION WITH THE USFS SUGGESTS THAT DEAD FUELS MAY BE DRY ON TOP...BUT BE DAMP JUST BELOW THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE RISK OF UNCONTROLLED FIRES INSPITE OF OTHER FACTORS. THE DRIEST PART OF THE AREA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RECENTLY AS 2 DAYS AGO...AND THOSE AREAS HAVE HAD AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR MORE WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY WAS CONSIDERED...BUT REJECTED DUE TO THESE MITIGATING FACTORS. WILL ONLY MENTION HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER W.R.T. DEAD GRASSES IN ROUTINE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. CARNEY && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 30TH KSTL 67 IN 1884 KCOU 68 IN 1890 RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 31ST KSTL 53 IN 1877 KCOU 46 IN 1923 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 300522 AAB AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 534 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DO NOTHING MORE THAN SWITCH WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING SOME CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA VERY BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO SURGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE TONIGHT AND THAT TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT...AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP BRING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THIS IS DUE TO A JUMP IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE ZERO...INTO THE 7 TO 8 DEG C RANGE. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST TO THE EAST COAST...A RETURN FLOW TYPE SITATION BEGINS TO UNFOLD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES AND DEEPENS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL MEAN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIR SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE 40/50 TYPE PROBABILITIES GOING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR ERRATIC BEHAVIOR FOR THE LAST 4 DAYS OF THE PERIOD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW. LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THAT THE DOMINANT FEATURE IS A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WILL REMAIN STOUT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO ODDS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT A COOL DOWN AS WELL...BUT NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE A MAJOR COLD SNAP...OR JUST MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE GENERATED CLOSED STORM SYSTEMS AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERING LOCATIONS COULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER IF IT IS EAST OF US...OR A FULL BLOWN WINTER STORM IF IT PASSES OVERHEAD AND THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE WILL BE 20-40 POPS OVER MOST AREAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...OTHERWISE JUST RAIN OR SHOWERS IS FORECAST. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE 12Z MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM...SREF...GFS AND ECMWF...AMPLIFY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD...THEY ALL BRING A SWATH OF MODERATE QPF OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IT ALSO HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING...BUT SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...POPS ARE STILL ONLY LOW CHANCE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BAND OF 10-11 KFT CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY PRODUCING CIGS AT THE KEVV/KOWB SITES. COULD SEE 050-060 KFT CIGS AT THE KCGI/KPAH SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH EARLY MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM....RST
FXUS63 KSGF 300444
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
PICK UP TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GUST AT
TIMES TO 20-30MPH. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING
RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA...IT WILL HAVE TO THE THE LONG ROUTE TO
THE OZARKS FROM THE GULF BY WAY OF WEST TEXAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
IS SLOW TO MOVE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LAG IN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR MONDAY.
MORE INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE OF FOG.
THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU.
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...THE EXTENDED MODELS LOOSE ANY CONSISTENT MESSAGE
WITH THE PATTERNS CHANGING SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. WHILE THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A
TENDENCY TO RETURN TO A MEAN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DRASTIC SWINGS IN POSITION...SHORTWAVE STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. THIS HAS LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED FORECAST
PAST WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL...FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IF THE
MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AS A COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE IN THE -8 TO -12
DEGREE C RANGE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GENERAL TRENDS DO INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK THOUGH
ON A WHOLE WITH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60
TO START THE WEEK...DRIZZLE AND FOG MID WEEK...AND SNOW POTENTIAL
TO CLOSE THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS TO
GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...EXPECTING THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD TO BE WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERNS ARE INCREASING FOR FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
MIXING DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 20 MPH IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MO OZARK PLATEAU...PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST
CENTRAL MO. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE RETURN. STARTING TO
SEE SOME INCREASE IN DEW PTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN TX...BUT BELIEVE
MODELS ARE A LITTLE FAST IN BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD MONDAY.
HAVE UNDERCUT GFS MOS DEW POINTS SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHWEST CWFA HAS MISSED OUT ON MUCH OF THE RECENT RAIN WE
HAVE HAD THIS PAST WEEK...AND THESE AREAS HAVE ALSO BEEN QUITE DRY
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DRYING OUT 10 HR FUELS AND CERTAINLY
SMALLER GRASS FUELS. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO SPRINGFIELD
TO TUSCUMBIA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN LOOK AT ADJUSTING THE COUNTIES IN A
WARNING OR JUST GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...BUT BELIEVE
RH VALUES MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY MOS
GUIDANCE.
DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-
077>081-088>090-093-094.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
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FLUS43 KEAX 300103 HWOEAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 703 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-301215- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 703 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ MJ
FLUS43 KLSX 292112 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 312 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301130- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 312 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE HEIGHTENED DANGER IS PRIMARILY FOR DEAD GRASSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ GLASS
FLUS43 KPAH 292111 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 311 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FLUS43 KSGF 300020 AAA HWOSGF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 620 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-310030- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 620 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF A NEOSHO TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO ELDON. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO VERSAILLES. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) $$ BOXELL
FXUS63 KFSD 300422 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1022 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE RAISE LOWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BY 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES MAY TANK MONDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH IN MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS...SUCH AS THE BUFFALO RIDGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 214 PM CST/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK TOGETHER TO SPREAD AN AREA OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...WREAKING HAVOC ON THE DIURNAL CURVE. TRIED TO CHALK SOMETHING IN THAT WILL REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BASICALLY...SOMETHING CLOSE TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN MIXING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LEAD TOWARDS A LITTLE WARMING...THEN BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 15Z THE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUITE A BIT SO TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BACK DOWN AGAIN BEFORE CLIMBING QUICKLY BETWEEN ABOUT 10AM AND 3PM MONDAY. BASICALLY LOOKING AT LOWS FROM NEAR 20 IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA TO AROUND 30 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING BACK IN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S FOR A VERY WARM AND PLEASANT MONDAY. DID HOWEVER SNEAK SOME MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE FORECAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER. VERY WARM 925MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWER 60S BUT WITH SNOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND RECENTLY MELTED SNOW THE GROUND MAY BE JUST WET ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM REACHING THE ABSOLUTE POTENTIAL LIKE PREVIOUSLY THIS MONTH. /08 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA AND ALSO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH THE CLOUDS LOWS WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN THE 20S ON MONDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON TUESDAY AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW COVER WILL BE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 18 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO EVEN THOUGH 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...2 TO 6C...IT WILL BE WELL-MIXED ACROSS THE AREAS SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18 WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS EXPECT LOWS TO BE NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY GENERALLY 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND LOWER 50S IN GREGORY COUNTY. IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS CERTAIN TO BE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL BIASES WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST AMPLIFIED WHICH ACTS TO KEEP RELATIVELY COLD AIR OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE LEAST AMPLIFIED AND HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BUT FAVORING A MORE FLAT SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY AS A WEAK FRONT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE 925 MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AND AGAIN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING LIGHT WESTERLY AND SOME SUN...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME MIXING. ADD TO THE FACT THAT THE SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ERODED A LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS OF WARM WEATHER AND EXPECTATION IS THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 30S IN SW MN AND 40S OVER MUCH OF SE SD...NE NEBRASKA AND NW IA. AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN US AND THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STUCK NEAR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS AT OR BLO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHICH STAYS IN THE MID 30S. BY SUNDAY...EXPECT THAT WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND DID RAISE HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WILL BE NEARBY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE IS A REAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND STAYED DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE BKN080 THROUGH 12Z AND THEN NO CEILINGS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 300052 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 652 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID LEVE CLOUDS. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 20Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. POOL OF WARM AIR STAYS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS IN COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WINDS WHICH MODELS INDICATE SHOULD STAY UP AND ALLOW LOWER LEVELS TO STAY MIXED WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RECORD HIGHS STILL INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR 60 IN THE NORTH. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN (GEM) WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC UP TO ABOUT 160 WEST. THEN A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN ABOUT 120 AND 130 WEST. THIS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND A CLOSED LOW FORMS OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. USING A MODEL BLEND...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO 34 NORTH / 140 WEST AT 12Z SATURDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE INITIAL DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING OVER THE CONUS INCREASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH TO THE ENERGY COMING DOWN FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND GEM...HAVING BEEN INDICATING FORMATION OF A CLOSE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO FRIDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS RATHER POOR AND CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE SOLUTION DROPS TO OR BELOW NORMAL. USING THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA...EXPECT MOST OF THE PERIOD TO BE DRY. WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY...THEN 35 TO 45 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S. AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ 99/99
FXUS63 KLBF 292328 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 528 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BKN100 SHOULD PERSIST AT KVTN TIL 07Z...THEN SCT250 THEREAFTER. KLBF TO REMAIN SCT250. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT UNTIL 18Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 12KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SYNOPSIS...AT 19Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN WESTERN ALBERTA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE FRONT ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA LOW TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE LOW TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG FRONT (CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA) IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN FACT...SOME RECORDS MAY FALL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE...THE FRONT MAY PASS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS THE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE MAY NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY DRY (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S)...PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. SPRINGER LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER. LITTLE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WITH THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED. MAY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. BY LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION. BASIC CONSENSUS IS AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST...WITH SOME SORT OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST OF THE BLOCK. SOME SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. ENSEMBLES NOT MUCH HELP EITHER...SO AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD FORECAST IN PLACE UNTIL A BETTER SIGNAL SEEN IN MODELS TO WARRANT ANY FORECAST CHANGES. TAYLOR FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY 15-20 PERCENT...BUT WIND WILL BE 10 MPH OR LOWER...SO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...SPRINGER/TAYLOR AVIATION...ROBERG
FXUS65 KCYS 300530 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1030 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE WYOMING AERODROMES...WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AERODROMES...WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALLIANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE PERIOD WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. WAVE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER THE WYOMING MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE EXPECTED. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SHIFTING TO BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LARGE AREA OF OPAQUE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS OVER THE ROCKIES. ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...A THINNER LAYER OF CIRRUS WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TODAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH MOST SITES IN THE WIND PRONE AREA ONLY SEEING GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE SITES INCHING TOWARD OR JUST CRESTING 50 MPH...WITH BORDEAUX PEAKING BRIEFLY AT 60 MPH JUST BEFORE 1 PM. THIS OCCURRED JUST AS SOME OF THAT THICKER OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS MOVED OVERHEAD AND CAUSED CHANGES IN STABILITY TO PERTURB THE MOUNTAIN WAVE JUST ENOUGH TO SEND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE WIND PRONE AREA TO AVERAGE AROUND 50 MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THESE MODERATE WINDS. LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS OVERALL WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THE WIND PRONE REGIONS IN THIS PATTERN AS LLVL STABILITY INCREASES. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPER SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAKING ITS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY...ONE MOVING THROUGH WYOMING TOMORROW WITH THE SECOND DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS. MODELS SHOW A MID TO LOW LEVEL DRY INTRUSION QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO PRECIP SHOULD BE BRIEF AND THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS DOWN FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD JUST SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGES FROM A FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK TO ONE WHICH IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE NATION BY LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN THAT THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NEAR WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL HELP TO MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT TIME. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...BUT AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AS WELL AS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA DO NOT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS. FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND WINDS OVER THE CWA AS WELL AS POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER WITH THEIR TRENDS NOW MAKING THEIR FORECASTS MORE SIMILAR THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN RECENT DAYS. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THAT FEATURE...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE ROCKIES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FURTHER WEST WITH THAT FEATURE. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN RISE OVER THE CWA GENERALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED BACK WEST ON THE 12Z GFS AND A CLOSED LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MOVES INTO COLORADO. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE WEEKEND ON ITS PAST TWO RUNS AND IS FAVORED BY HPC. WITH THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT AND RAISE POPS OVER MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE 00Z ECMWF RUN MOVED A FRONT WEST INTO THE CWA FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT MORE QPF OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PER THE ECMWF MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON THOSE DAYS. && FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW. HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WITH WEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...MAZUR LONG TERM...WEILAND AVIATION...JAMSKI
FXUS63 KGLD 300456 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 956 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... 320 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE DAKOTAS. A WARM AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE POTENTIAL FOR MID-WEEK PRECIP AS WELL AS COMPLEX/LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DAY MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 70 DEGREE READING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BULK OF COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO KEPT MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TEMPS DURING THE TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY THOUGH STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUT LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT INSPECTION OF POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 750 MB THAT WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT PRESENCE OF THE NEAR- SURFACE DRY LAYER WILL PREVENT THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR THIS FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY FROM THURSDAY ON AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR CONSENSUS AS WELL AS POOR INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. TREND APPEARS TO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS THAN WHAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECASTED...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SO DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF OF BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. HIGHLY MERIDIONAL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR WARMER TEMPS WEST AND COOLER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOLTZ && .AVIATION... 955 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND VAD WIND DATA OVER KGLD IS SHOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING TO SHOW THE JET AND DEVELOPING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER KMCK...SO HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR GROUPS IN BOTH TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. CJS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 300446 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. LATE EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIME CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR KGRI SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES. BEEN ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION...SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST. ENDED UP BEING A BIT MORE CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA...THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE SEEN A FEW MORE PEAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE PATTERN...SEEING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE GULF COAST...WHILE A TROUGH AXIS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EAST. THE AXIS IS SITTING ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT AT TIMES GUSTY SWRLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS ARE AGAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS PRESENT /THOUGH NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY/...RH VALUES ARE FLIRTING WITH/BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS...BUT LIKE DEWPOINTS THE WINDS ALSO NOT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...SO THE CWA REMAINS ABOVE RFW CRITERIA. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS A DRY ONE...AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY...BUT AS WE GET INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF WESTERLY FLOW. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THAT TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA...AND WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE MT/CAN BORDER. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SWRLY WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM UP IN TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WITH A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE WINDS /THOUGH SPEEDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...A VERY NICE AFTERNOON REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED HIGHS...WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...BUT WITH PORTIONS OF NC ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY...UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL TO REACH RECORD HIGHS IN THE TRI CITIES....SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FORE ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER A WARM DAY ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE DRY AIRMASS...FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WITH CLOUD COVER MORE PREVALENT ACROSS NC KS WITH 100KT H3 JET STREAK PASSING BY. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTN WILL RETURN TEMPS TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FM THE SC ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z NAM WAS THE MOST ROBUST WITH SYSTEM AND PROGS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE WEDNESDAY AND GENERATES LIGHT QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLVLS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN TYPE. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS ROBUST WITH LIFT AND SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER VS PCPN AND MONITOR FOR SPRINKLE TYPE MENTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHICH MAY CUT OFF AS 12Z GFS SUGGESTS...OR REMAIN MORE OPEN AS 12Z ECMWF PROGS...WITH ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/COLD AIR. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGES MADE DURING EXTENDED PERIODS UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY RETURNS. CLIMATE...WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TRI CITIES TO APPROACH OR PERHAPS SURPASS THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 30TH. 64 DEGREES IS THE NUMBER TO BEAT FOR ALL THREE CITIES...AND ALL WERE SET IN 1931. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KFSD 291021 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 0421 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-301200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 0421 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$ WILLIAMS
FLUS43 KOAX 292207 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 407 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301215- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 407 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. $$ FOBERT
FLUS43 KLBF 292110 HWOLBF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 310 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302115- SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN- GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON- LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- WESTERN CHERRY- 310 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 /210 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE $$ JRS
FLUS45 KCYS 300252 HWOCYS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 752 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 WYZ101>119-301300- CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY- NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS- SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY- EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY- NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY- SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE- LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS- CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY- 752 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING... SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE WIND CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80 IN AND AROUND THE ARLINGTON AREA...AS WELL AS INTERSTATE 25 FROM CHUGWATER TO WHEATLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-301300- DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE- NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX- 752 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ JAMSKI
FLUS43 KGLD 291728 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1028 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301215- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 1028 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 /1128 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS43 KGID 300014 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 614 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 301200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 614 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS64 KTSA 300525 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1125 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ ..UPDATE... SHORT TERM... TEMPERATURE ARE ON TRACK IN MOST PLACES TO HIT THE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE QUICKER PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS GOING CALM. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM HOUR TO HOUR IF WINDS PICK UP THEN GO CALM AGAIN. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE BARTLESVILLE...WISTER...AND OILTON. NO BIG CHANGES HOWEVER. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...10
FXUS64 KOUN 300432 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... 30/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .UPDATE... ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS THE CIRRUS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 62 50 66 / 0 10 10 10 HOBART OK 32 63 43 67 / 0 10 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 36 68 51 72 / 0 10 10 10 GAGE OK 29 68 29 63 / 0 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 33 66 48 64 / 0 10 10 10 DURANT OK 37 65 53 69 / 0 10 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KAMA 300544 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO DEEPENING SURFACE TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG ERN SLOPES OF ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT KAMA
AND LOWEST KGUY. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT KAMA... FOLLOWED BY
KDHT...AND THEN KGUY. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FORESEEN...WITH MOST PERSISTENT SKY COVER ANTICIPATED AT KGUY AND KDHT
EARLY IN THIS TAF FCST.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROF STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST 4
COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIIONS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ONLY BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES.
VERY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AND BETWEEN CONSECUTIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH WINDS...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMO. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH PREVAIL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT...DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KSHV 300318 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 918 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND...THUS NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING. ELEVEN && .AVIATION... 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AL/MS IS DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS OR CALM AT OUR TERMINALS. DAYBREAK TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SFC HIGH/S EXIT WITH 5 TO 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTN. ALOFT...ATTM WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEPTH IS ONLY A FEW KFT THICK AND VEER TO WEST BY 5KFT...AND NORTHWEST BY 14KFT...STILL LESS THAN 50KTS AT FL180-FL240. SKC ENDS AS CIRRUS SPREADS IN BY 12Z./24/ && .PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 36 71 48 74 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 MLU 34 69 47 73 53 / 0 0 10 20 20 DEQ 29 65 43 69 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 TXK 35 69 48 70 57 / 0 0 10 20 20 ELD 30 69 45 73 54 / 0 0 10 20 20 TYR 39 69 54 73 57 / 0 0 20 20 20 GGG 37 70 52 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 LFK 35 72 53 74 56 / 0 0 20 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ 11/24
FLUS44 KTSA 300034 HWOTSA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 634 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 633 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DISCUSSION... FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LET THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF WILD FIRES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS. THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS. FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS. SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WILDFIRE THREAT MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...AND MODERATE THE THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$
FLUS44 KOUN 291735
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
A MILD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY JAN 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.
$$
MAXWELL/SHARPE
FLUS44 KAMA 292136 HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 336 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-301230- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 336 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. IF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON MONDAY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF OCCURRENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. $$ COCKRELL
FLUS44 KSHV 291744 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA- NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE- FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG- HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FXUS64 KFWD 300538 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1138 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS LEE OF THE ROCKIES. EXPECT SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. A SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING MONDAY BETWEEN 16 AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER SUNSET MONDAY BUT REMAIN BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 13 AND 15 KNOTS. 79 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S THAT WE SAW TODAY RISE INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND WARM END OF THE MONTH WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS SPREAD INTO THE REGION. AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF I-35. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY AND LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A DRY BUT COOLER PERIOD. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 42 68 55 73 54 / 0 5 10 10 10 WACO, TX 38 69 53 73 54 / 0 5 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 35 66 49 69 54 / 0 5 10 10 10 DENTON, TX 39 68 53 72 51 / 0 5 10 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 36 67 53 71 55 / 0 5 10 10 10 DALLAS, TX 42 67 54 73 55 / 0 5 10 10 10 TERRELL, TX 38 67 53 71 54 / 0 5 10 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 40 68 53 73 56 / 0 5 10 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 39 68 54 74 55 / 0 5 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 40 69 50 74 51 / 0 5 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/84
FXUS64 KSHV 300318 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 918 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND...THUS NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING. ELEVEN && .AVIATION... 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AL/MS IS DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS OR CALM AT OUR TERMINALS. DAYBREAK TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SFC HIGH/S EXIT WITH 5 TO 10 KTS BY MONDAY AFTN. ALOFT...ATTM WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEPTH IS ONLY A FEW KFT THICK AND VEER TO WEST BY 5KFT...AND NORTHWEST BY 14KFT...STILL LESS THAN 50KTS AT FL180-FL240. SKC ENDS AS CIRRUS SPREADS IN BY 12Z./24/ && .PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 36 71 48 74 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 MLU 34 69 47 73 53 / 0 0 10 20 20 DEQ 29 65 43 69 50 / 0 0 10 20 20 TXK 35 69 48 70 57 / 0 0 10 20 20 ELD 30 69 45 73 54 / 0 0 10 20 20 TYR 39 69 54 73 57 / 0 0 20 20 20 GGG 37 70 52 73 56 / 0 0 10 20 20 LFK 35 72 53 74 56 / 0 0 20 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ 11/24
FXUS64 KOUN 300432 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1032 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... 30/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .UPDATE... ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING... MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS THE CIRRUS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 62 50 66 / 0 10 10 10 HOBART OK 32 63 43 67 / 0 10 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 36 68 51 72 / 0 10 10 10 GAGE OK 29 68 29 63 / 0 10 10 10 PONCA CITY OK 33 66 48 64 / 0 10 10 10 DURANT OK 37 65 53 69 / 0 10 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KEWX 300544 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1144 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... 00Z MODELS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH LOW CLOUDS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PICK THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL PROJECTIONS. NAM FORECAST...SATELLITE DATA...AND SURFACE MAP ALL SUGGEST A SLIGHT DELAY IN LOWERING CIGS...SO DELAYED THE CIG LOWERINGS A COUPLE HOURS UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH BORDERLING IFR/MVF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SAT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDIIONS EXPECTED AT AUS...BUT ALL THE I-35 TERMINALS SHOULD SHOW A TREND TOWARD LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS AT DRT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. ALSO MADE COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...WX...AND POP GRIDS. AVIATION... WEAK UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL HELP CONVERGE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT TO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS IN SW COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO THE DRT/SAT/SSF TERMINAL SITES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INTO THE AUS AREA A COUPLE HOURS LATER. WITH THE SURGE OF BLYR MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SAT AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH...WITH SOME CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLY LOWERED TO LIFR IN THE LATE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FASTER RETURN TO MVFR CIGS FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING. S/SE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY BELOW 12 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AT DRT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO OPENS UP WHILE EJECTING NORTHEAST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE BUT A FEW 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE WEAK TROUGH AS SEEN ON BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW WHILE A CHANNEL OF LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SWEEPS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AND BEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TOMORROW MORNING... THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED MOIST GULF ADVECTION WILL RESULTING IN LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS TOMORROW EVENING. BY LATE NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SPRINKLES MAY ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT. WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S...NEAR 70 HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S HILL COUNTRY...EDWARDS PLATEAU...LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTH- WEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 70S HILL COUNTRY. A DRY RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONTINUED MODEL UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE WEEK AS EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG A TROUGH IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE THE GFS CUTS THE LOW OFF ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY. ALL MODELS IMPLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE OVERRUN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST EJECTS IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES AT BEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 41 69 56 75 61 / - - 20 10 - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 36 69 56 74 62 / - - 20 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 39 68 56 74 61 / - 10 20 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 69 55 74 58 / - - 20 10 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 67 53 73 58 / - - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 38 68 56 73 60 / - - 20 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 68 55 74 59 / - 20 20 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 38 68 56 73 62 / - - 20 10 - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 40 69 56 75 62 / - 10 20 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 43 69 57 75 61 / - 10 20 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 42 69 57 75 61 / - 20 20 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
FXUS64 KCRP 300542 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1142 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WILL REACH THE LAREDO AREA FIRST AROUND 10Z AND THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE ALI/CRP AROUND 16Z AND NOT REACH VCT AREA UNTIL AROUND 20Z MONDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IN THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE EVENING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD COAHUILA WITH CONVECTION/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHERN COAHUILA. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE ENERGETIC AND 00Z NAM SHOWS MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THERE WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND FOR MONDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MID-COAST AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION. AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING TO BECOME MVFR FOR LRD OVERNIGHT WITH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES FOR OTHER SITES ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR A TIME ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 52 70 57 79 63 / 10 30 20 10 10 VICTORIA 43 70 54 77 62 / 10 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 55 73 55 81 61 / 20 30 20 10 10 ALICE 50 71 54 80 62 / 10 30 20 10 10 ROCKPORT 53 66 59 71 64 / 10 20 20 20 10 COTULLA 48 71 51 79 60 / 10 30 20 10 10 KINGSVILLE 52 71 56 80 61 / 10 30 20 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 58 66 61 71 64 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TMT/89...AVIATION
FXUS64 KHGX 300544 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1144 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... SCT DECK OVER THE GULF AROUND 3000 FT WITH INCREASING CI NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE SW OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS WITH 00Z RUN LOOKING DRIER IN THE LL AND SO HAVE PARED BACK THE BKN MVFR DECK BEFORE 12Z AND WILL BE FAVORING INCREASING SCT-BKN DECK OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE GULF AND INTO COASTAL AREAS AFTER 17Z. S/W TO THE SW OF DRT WILL MOVE NE AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING WAA AND EVEN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFTER 31/00Z AND CIGS LOWERING TO 20-2500FT. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... CANNOT ADD TOO MUCH MORE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THE UPDATE. SO NO CHANGES ATTM. JUST WATCHING/WAITING FOR AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MAKE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AS PER INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ AVIATION...RIDGE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST AND WILL OPEN THE WAY FOR RETURN FLOW. ATTM MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT WILL BE EXPANDING INTO THE TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NIGHT BUT TOMORROW MAY HAVE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS AS HEATING AND MOISTURE COMBINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AM THINKING AT PRESENT WILL BE VFR SCT/BKN035. TOMORROW EVENING THOUGH FOR IAH OUT PERIOD WILL BE RE-EVALUATING WITH LATEST 00Z RUNS FOR INCLUSION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BY 06Z TUESDAY. MAY EVEN NEED TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY -DZ IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE. 45 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ A FINAL DAY OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEFORE THE REGION FALLS INTO A MORE CLOUDY...WARM AND SPORADICALLY WET PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL EXPAND OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL 5H PATTERN WILL HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS LIFTING UP AND ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL HAVE RETURN FLOW COMMENCING LATER TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. POPS ARE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY OCCURRING TUESDAY OR WHEN THOSE SOUTHWESTERLY VORTS TRAVEL UP THE TX COASTLINE. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER FORCING (AS REGION IS UNDER A LEFT REAR QUAD)...QPF IS NOT VERY HIGH. WHAT IS HIGH IS THE SEASONAL COLUMN MOISTURE...OVER AN INCH PWAT WHICH IS NEAR 75 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM INDICIES...SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS PER SUB 30 K-INDICES AND SUB 45 TTS. SATURATED COLUMNS WITH ENOUGH OF A LAPSE RATE TO GO WITH -SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA TUESDAY. BECOMING OVERCAST WITH WARM OVERNIGHTS (50S/60S) AND MORE HUMID WARM DAYS IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 70S. DUE TO WEAKER NEAR COASTAL WINDS AND LOWER 60F DEW POINTS OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS...SOUTHERN 1/3RD FA FOG IS OF MODERATE LIKELIHOOD EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. THE EXTENDED IS STILL A BIT MUDDLED...AT LEAST FROM A RUN-TO-RUN PERSPECTIVE. 12Z RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER LOW/TROF THAT DROPS SOUTH AND SETTLES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT WEEK'S END. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON THE EASTERN EVOLUTION OF THIS LATE PERIOD TROF...BUT BOTH DO AGREE OF HOLDING IT BACK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECWMF PUSHING IT THROUGH AS A OPEN WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. RUN-TO-RUN DISAGREEMENT HAS ONLY 20 POPS IN...WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW MONTH WILL BE MORE OVERCAST AND WET. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 43 69 57 73 59 / 10 10 20 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 43 70 57 75 60 / 10 10 10 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 54 67 61 71 62 / 10 10 10 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...41 AVIATION/MARINE...45
FXUS64 KAMA 300544 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MIDDAY MONDAY DUE TO DEEPENING SURFACE TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG ERN SLOPES OF ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT KAMA
AND LOWEST KGUY. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BY MID MORNING MONDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT KAMA... FOLLOWED BY
KDHT...AND THEN KGUY. PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FORESEEN...WITH MOST PERSISTENT SKY COVER ANTICIPATED AT KGUY AND KDHT
EARLY IN THIS TAF FCST.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/
DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROF STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST 4
COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIIONS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ONLY BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES.
VERY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS AND BETWEEN CONSECUTIVE
RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL THURSDAY AND BEYOND. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH WINDS...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMO. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH PREVAIL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT...DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KLUB 292329 AAA AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 529 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND SLOWLY RAMP UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JORDAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... GENERALLY ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH LOWS AND HIGHS BEING NEAR 30 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FIRE WEATHER RELATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EDGES INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. ALSO...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE BEING ALONG THE TROUGH THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THIS REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS WILL BE UP ACROSS THE NW DURING THE DAY...WITH A DESCENT LOW LVL JET IN PLACE. THOUGH...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY BELOW 800MB THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER...WHEN THE DEEPEST MIXING EXIST THE LOW LVL JET BEGINS TO WANE. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES ATTM. MEADOWS LONG TERM... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SCOOTING OUT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY TUESDAY...BUT FAIRLY FAR TO THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY OUT OF PHASE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANYWAY...DIFFICULTY TIMING THE INFLUENCES OF WAVES OVER OUR AREA REMAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THIS ACCELERATED FLOW REGIME. WE WILL RETAIN DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THOUGH ALLOW FOR WEAK FRONT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME MIXING INTO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY MAY YET PROVE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AT LEAST...THOUGH WE NEED TO SEE SOLUTIONS LINE UP BETTER WITH THE TIMING. AND CONFIDENCE REALLY ONLY GETS WORSE STILL FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED ONCE MORE BACK TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IDEA THAT HAD MOSTLY DISAPPEARED THE PREVIOUS RUN. WE TAKE THIS TO MEAN THAT THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR EITHER OR BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH TO EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK AND SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER TROUGH TO HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BUT SOLUTIONS REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH DETAILS AND WE WILL NOT LEAP ANY FURTHER UNTIL THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE CLARITY. THEREFORE...FAVOR PREVIOUS IDEA OF COOLER LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION MENTION MAINLY FRIDAY. RMCQUEEN FIRE WEATHER... MONDAY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MOST DIRECT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENTS THOUGH TIMING THE IMPACTING WAVES IS STILL VERY DICEY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN PASSAGE OF WIND MAXIMUMS ALOFT IS RATHER LOW. STILL...WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WE WOULD EXPECT AT A MINIMUM FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL IS WINDS ALOFT LINE UP DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. CANT YET RULE OUT POSSIBLE ELEVATED OR EVEN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AS WELL FOR WEDNESDAY...AS AS MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS EVEN LESS. RMCQUEEN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 29 68 33 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 29 69 35 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 28 69 35 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 31 69 34 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 30 70 36 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 31 68 35 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 32 68 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 32 70 40 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 32 70 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 32 70 44 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KSJT 300505 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... && .AVIATION... STRATUS IS ENCROACHING ON KJCT AND KSOA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CEILINGS TO 4K TO 6K FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LOWER AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z MONDAY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 14 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AT ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ UPDATE... FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN 5-10 MPH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW CLOUDS...POORLY HANDLED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...CONTINUE TO0 STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH...APPROACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR NEAR JUNCTION AND SONORA. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER RH PROGS...THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUD COVER... COUPLED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...I HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. I TRENDED UPWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA AND TWEAKED A FEW DEGREES UP OR DOWN ELSEWHERE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. JOHNSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... AVIATION... SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. LOW CLOUD COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH INTO THE REGION AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KJCT AND KSOA. A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z...BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO REDUCE CEILINGS TO 4K TO 6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 14 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AT ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM... WARMING TREND HAS STARTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. WITH BETTER MIXING TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...IN THE LOWER 40S FOR ALL BUT THE LOWEST LYING AREAS. WARM AND BREEZY ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT BY THE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALL DAY...WILL MAKE A SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HARD TO TELL HOW FAR NORTH THEY WILL COME...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LONG TERM... THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH WHAT WILL OCCUR IN DAYS 4-7. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE SPECIFICS IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS INDICATE A NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT/ EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE FARTHER EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE NAM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN OVER OUR AREA FAVORS WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS INDICATED LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THEIR SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ALSO APPEAR AMONG THE 12Z VERSIONS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...THE LATEST ECMWF DIVES AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING FURTHER AND A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS /RESEMBLING TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF FROM 12Z YESTERDAY/ DIVES THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE THE MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP A REX BLOCK WITH THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LONGEST DURATION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME OVERALL CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN DEEPENING AN UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IN BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR SOUTH INTO TEXAS. IF THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER OUR AREA OR JUST TO OUR WEST...THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD INCREASE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE HAVING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PATTERN...HOLDING OFF WITH ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN AND WINDS...AND HAVE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF MAKING CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ONCE THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 41 69 54 72 48 / 0 0 10 10 10 SAN ANGELO 42 70 53 75 46 / 0 0 10 10 10 JUNCTION 45 66 52 75 47 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DANIELS
FXUS64 KMAF 300442 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1042 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 21
FXUS64 KEPZ 292054 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 154 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND AT THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST BRING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MAY GET A LITTLE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS WELL WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN DROP HIGHS 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS HAS A STRONG CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AZ THU AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NE AND TAPPING INTO A ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND TAPS INTO SOME COLD AIR WHICH COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE CWA. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING BUT MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT IT DOES TAP INTO COLDER AIR THAN THE GFS. OPERATIONAL GFS IS ON THE EXTREME SIDE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING MORE SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL NOT JUMP WHOLE HEARTEDLY ON ONE SOLUTION...BUT WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN THU-SUN. ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH PRECIP OCCURRING EVEN WITH A BIG COOL DOWN FRIDAY AND HAVE JUST KEPT SOME LESS THAN 10 PCT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WAIT FOR SOME MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH TROUGH PLACEMENT. && .AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z. VFR WITH SKC THRU 06Z...FEW-SCT250 AFT 06Z. SFC WNDS GNLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TNGT THRU 17Z...FAVORING 240-270 3-8KTS AFT 17Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL KEEP WINDS SLACK TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH ONLY A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SOME INCREASED MID CLOUDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND COOLER TEMPS BY 5 DEGREES. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. AGAIN IT LOOKS DRY WITH JUST SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT COOLING. CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MUCH DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH... TIMING...AND POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 32 65 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 30 66 38 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 30 64 39 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 27 63 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 21 51 25 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 62 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 32 60 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 26 64 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 28 65 32 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 26/14
FXUS64 KLCH 300533 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .AVIATION... DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD...REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROVIDING COOL CONDITIONS AND LT/NR CALM WINDS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS THE NW GULF...WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SW AND S CNTL LA. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY CONDITION FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT RECENT OB TRENDS. REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S CNTL LA TO LOWER 40S LOWER SE TX. ZONE UPDATE ISSUED MAINLY TO INCORPORATE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED TONIGHT. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... WITH THE HIGH LOCATED NOW OVER THE CENTRAL LA AND MISSISSIPPI BORDER THE WEATHER HAS BEEN QUITE NICE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM OVERNIGHT AND SKY HAS BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT MONDAY LEAVING A RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ITS BEEN RELATIVE DRY OVER THE AREA BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH HAVE THE HIGH MOVING OUT WITH A NICE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. POPS WERE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE REAL ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EXTENDED. YESTERDAY THERE WASNT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TODAY DOESNT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BETTER. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN TODAY WERE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT AND DIFFERED GREATLY FROM THE GFS... SO DECIDED TO GO WITH THE BEST TWO OF THREE AND WENT MOSTLY WITH THE ECMWF. AT THE MOMENT DONT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EITHER WAY. HOPEFULLY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT. MARINE... WINDS HAVE DROPPED DURING THE DAY AND SLOWLY STARTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED JUST TO THE EAST BUT IS STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY...LEADING TO THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. A WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. 69 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 40 70 55 75 59 / 0 0 10 20 20 KBPT 44 71 58 75 61 / 0 0 10 20 20 KAEX 35 67 48 72 55 / 0 0 10 20 20 KLFT 39 67 53 73 59 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KBRO 300533 AAC AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...LOWER CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT MIDLEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES ARE FOR KMFE RIGHT AROUND NOON...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PREDOMINANT -RA OVER VCSH. CIGS WILL GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO UPDATE RAIN CHANCES BEFORE DAWN ALONG THE RIVER. RADAR SHOWING SLOWLY ADVANCING RAIN SHIELD TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS RAIN MAY REACH AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE JUST BEFORE DAWN...NECESSITATING AN UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BKN TO OVC CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH. A MID LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOMORROW... MONDAY...WITH CHANCES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012/ SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX THROUGH THE LONE STAR STATE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE MAJORITY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE GFS MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE MAIN THRUST OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SPECIFICALLY MENTIONS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THAT TREND AND INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO...FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COURTESY OF LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOILS POSSIBLY WHETTED FROM ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO INDICATED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT HAVE HELD OFF INDICATING DENSE FOG...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS TRANQUIL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH\ SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...PUTTING US IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE ON THURSDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MARINE ZONES AND NEAR SHORE. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER A DAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES FALL...OWING TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARM MID LEVEL AIR EXPECT THE CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO RIGHT AROUND THE FRONT ITSELF OR PERHAPS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FORECAST PICTURE GETS A LITTLE MESSIER AT THIS POINT. THE 12Z GFS IS CALLING FOR AN INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT DOES NOT EFFECTIVELY BRING IN DRIER AIR...IT SETS UP COASTAL TROUGHING AND REALLY ESCALATES THE OFFSHORE WINDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...DRY THE AREA OUT...AND HAVE A LULL IN THE WINDS BEFORE A POLAR FRONT ENHANCES WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL GO WITH THE FLAVOR OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH CALLS FOR AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN A STRONGER SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY BEFORE SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ONCE MORE. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO MAKE TIMING CHANGES AND POTENTIALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND SEAS WHEN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE RELATIVE MAXIMUMS ARE MORE CLEAR. DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED IF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE POLAR FRONT IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 12 CST/18 UTC. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS DUE TO SEAS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS SWELL FROM STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST COUPLES WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND. THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH ROUGH SEAS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS REMAIN A CHALLENGE. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 64/51
FLUS44 KFWD 292120 HWOFWD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 320 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ DUNN
FLUS44 KSHV 291744 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA- NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE- FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG- HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KOUN 291735
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
A MILD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY JAN 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.
$$
MAXWELL/SHARPE
FLUS44 KEWX 291107 HWOEWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 507 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301200- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 507 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KCRP 291019 HWOCRP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 419 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301100- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL- JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN- 419 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ JR/RH
FLUS44 KHGX 290926 HWOHGX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 326 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-300930- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY- MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO- TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON- 326 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KAMA 292136 HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 336 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-301230- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 336 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. IF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON MONDAY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF OCCURRENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. $$ COCKRELL
FLUS44 KLUB 291142 HWOLUB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 542 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 TXZ021>044-301145- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 542 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. $$
FLUS44 KSJT 292028 HWOSJT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 228 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-302030- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 228 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KMAF 291921 HWOMAF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 121 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-301930- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 121 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 /1221 PM MST SUN JAN 29 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
FLUS44 KEPZ 291352 HWOEPZ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 652 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-301400- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION- TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH- 652 AM MST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KLCH 291128 HWOLCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 528 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 301130- VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY- CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN- VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON- EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER- NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON- 528 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES PAST THE REGION. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS USHER IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. SLIM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-301130- SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 528 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY WITH THE CROSSING OF A COLD FRONT...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ 25
FLUS44 KBRO 291105 HWOBRO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 505 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 TXZ248>257-301200- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 505 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-301200- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 505 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$