FLUS43 KPAH 101811
HWOPAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1211 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...FROM THE LAND
BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA WEST...AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL START ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
FROM MID TO LATE EVENING...CONTINUING UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY
THE OZARKS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL. SHOULD SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY PRODUCE A
TORNADO AS WELL. THE SUPERCELL ASPECT WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THE MODE IS FORECAST TO TEND TOWARD A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE.

THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
OFF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
WIND FIELDS. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE NORTH / NORTHEAST 50 MPH.
SHOULD THE ACTIVITY DEVELOP MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE...THE MOTION
WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THURSDAY. ISOLATED STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WABASH
RIVER VALLEY REGION EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALSO...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ABOUT UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO A MODERATE
RISK...SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON AN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...MEDIA CONFERENCE CALL...EVEN
IF A MODERATE RISK COMES OUT.

$$

NOLES