FXUS63 KPAH 180840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WERE FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF THE REGION AS A SFC AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS APPROACHED. WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING...DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS
IN THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...LIMITING MIXING DOWN OF
DRIER AIR TO THE SFC SOMEWHAT. THE SOURCE REGION OF LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL SHIFT DURING THE DAY FROM NRLY TO WRLY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WILL OCCUR
ON FRI...AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM AS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW TO ITS EAST BY SAT. THE TIGHT MID
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO MOVE ACROSS
AR...NRN MS AND TN DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FCST POSITION
OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE PAH FCST AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
OF DAMAGING WIND...HOWEVER SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
LOW DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE LOW. TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS
STILL SUBJECT TO SOME CHANGE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A RAW DAY FOR SURE.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW CU POSSIBLE TODAY. SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MEANS WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NW...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. A FEW GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE DUE
TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SSW TONIGHT.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CN