ACUS11 KWNS 161846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161845
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...TO NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 161845Z - 162015Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF IL INTO SRN MO...

CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WCNTRL IL INTO SWRN MO.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IL...STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE WITH INITIAL DISCRETE STRUCTURES BECOMING MORE LINEARLY
ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS
CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE.

..DARROW.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

36899370 39449082 41568752 40538740 36829190