235
ACUS01 KWNS 101637
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK...NWRN AR...
EXTREME SERN KS...MO...SERN IA...IL...IN..OH AND NRN KY TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MKO 35 NE TUL 30 ENE MKC 15 ESE LWD OTM
30 SE CID 30 SW RFD 20 NNE MMO LAF 15 N MIE 35 N DAY 20 NNW CMH 15
WSW ZZV 15 E UNI 30 SW HTS 25 N BWG 60 NNW LIT 15 NE PGO 20 WSW
MKO.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS
ERN OK...NERN TX...AR...NWRN MS...TN...NWRN NC...WRN VA...WV..SRN
LWR MI...AND SERN WI TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ADM TUL 45
S OJC LWD 15 NNW CID MKE 20 NNE AZO 20 S CLE 15 NNE HLG 35 E EKN 45
ESE LYH 35 ESE GSO 30 NNW HSS 20 N CSV 55 SW BNA UOX 40 W GLH 25
NNE SHV TYR 40 E DAL 20 SSW DUA 30 ENE ADM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
PSB 25 ENE SBY ...CONT... 30 S EWN HKY 30 SSW TYS 40 NNE BPT SAT
JCT 35 E ABI BVO 45 E EMP TOP 35 SSE FOD 40 E MCW CWA 50 S ESC
20 ENE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20 SSW FAY GSP
ANB MCB 25 E LCH CRP 55 NNW MFE 55 WNW MFE ...CONT... 25 SSE P07
35 W SJT 35 NW ABI 25 NE PNC 30 WSW EMP RSL 10 S GLD 45 NNW CAO
ALS BCE MLF ELY U31 65 N SAC 30 W MHS ONP 20 WNW CLM ...CONT...
35 NE 63S LWS BOI 40 SW SUN IDA JAC WRL 50 SSE 81V AIA LBF GRI
30 S FSD RWF 60 ENE STC 10 NE MQT ...CONT... 30 W ART 15 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 10 WNW PBI
30 NW MIA 55 WNW MIA 20 SE FMY 25 NNW FMY 15 NNE SRQ 45 NNE PIE
35 SSE GNV 30 WNW DAB 20 S DAB VRB.

...A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS
AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN TX. A
90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
EJECT UPPER LOW RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. ANOTHER JET MAX WILL EXTEND FROM NERN TX NEWD INTO KY WITH
THE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE RESULTING IN STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT/LIFT
ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL KS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WI TONIGHT.

...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC STATES...
LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IL/INDIANA WITH AN APPARENT MCV LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE MCV INTO SRN INDIANA AND IS
LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR MCV AND WARM FRONT...WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS INDIANA AND
INTO SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVES
INTO  WV AND EVENTUALLY THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN A THREAT....THOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIND
DAMAGE MAY BECOME THE GREATER THREAT.

SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR STL WWD
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN
MO...BUT HAS STALLED ON THE WRN END. AS STRONG FORCING SPREADS INTO
THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EXPLOSIVELY FROM NWRN MO
SWWD INTO OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAD STABILIZED
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW
MOVES NEWD AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF OK/SERN KS...SPREADS RAPIDLY NEWD. MLCAPES WILL EXCEED
3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND 1 KM SRH OF 300-350 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY
STRONG TORNADOES TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN
OK/NWRN AR NEWD ACROSS INTO MO AND SERN IA. HAIL AS LARGE AS
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 100 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

FORECAST DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING WOULD ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS...WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN MO/IL AND POSSIBLY WRN KY.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WINDS VEER IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. TORNADOES WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
EVENT.

..IMY.. 05/10/03