067
ACUS3 KMKC 241553
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 241552
ILZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-OHZ000-241800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 FOR IL..IND..NRN KY..WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXTENDING FROM THE
MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THESE AREAS.

AS MENTIONED IN SWOMCD 2197 SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE A TRIPLE POINT OVER CENTRAL IL...ALONG INTERSECTION OF
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO SRN IND AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
LINE FROM WRN IL INTO NRN AR ATTM.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MASS
CONVERGENCE FORECASTS FROM MORNING ETA SEEM TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES WELL...AND SHIFT TRIPLE POINT ENEWD ALONG NWD MOVING WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK.  THIS COULD SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT OF
A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES LATER TODAY...AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS AND RAPID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP BREAKS...ANY WW ISSUED THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA AND EXTEND EWD INTO IND/NRN
KY AND POSSIBLY WRN OH AS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THESE REGIONS
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

..EVANS.. 10/24/01