396
ACUS1 KMKC 181638
SWODY1
MKC AC 181629

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE BMG 20 WSW EVV 25 S MDH 25 WSW BLV
10 WNW BMI 35 ESE CGX 40 E SBN 20 N MIE 35 ESE BMG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE MSN 15 SE MKG 20 SSW ARB 45 NE DAY 30 NE LEX 10 W BNA
40 N MEM 45 S HRO 30 NNW FYV 35 NE JLN 15 NE COU 15 NNW UIN
40 SE DBQ 30 ENE MSN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 NE HVR 50 NE BIL 40 N COD 35 NW WEY 40 WSW BTM 25 NNW MSO
55 NNW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE YUM 55 E BLH 40 NW PHX 55 WNW SAD 45 NNW DUG 25 SE FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW GLS 35 SE HDO
70 W COT ...CONT... 20 WSW CZZ 10 WSW RAL 35 NE OXR 35 NE BFL DRA
P38 45 NNW MLF 15 WSW OGD PIH 10 SE SUN 50 NNE SVE 35 SE LMT LWS
55 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 N OLF GDV 35 WSW REJ 30 SSE BFF 55 N LAA
15 N EHA GAG END 30 NNW BVO 35 NNE CNU 35 WSW OTM 20 ESE MCW
30 ESE STC DLH 80 E ELO ...CONT... EFK 15 N ALB POU 10 SE ISP.

...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SE MN/NE IA WILL MOVE
TO NRN INDIANA/SW LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR BRL MOVES TO NW OH.  S/SW OF THIS
LOW... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SERVE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN MO NEWD TO WRN/NRN INDIANA.
STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE MO TO WRN/NWRN INDIANA...WHERE
INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD 65-70 F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS.
THIS STRONG INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS BENEATH THE MID-UPPER JET...WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL IL TO NW INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...MT AREA...
THOUGH THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY...STRONG HEATING/DEEP MIXING
WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT LATER TODAY.  THE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V PROFILES...INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ENEWD FROM ID...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS.

...AZ AREA...
MID-UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND 20-30 KT E/ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER AZ ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.  MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY
STILL BE SUBSTANTIAL BASED ON RESIDUAL CLOUDS SLOWING SURFACE
HEATING.  AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA IS THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...
THOUGH ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 08/18/01