345
ACUS3 KMKC 042038
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 042037
KS000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 FOR SCNTRL KS...NWRN/WRN OK INTO NWRN
TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AN AXIS FROM SCNTRL KS ACROSS WRN
OK AND INTO NWRN TX BY 23-01 UTC.  GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT...THEY
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
TSTM WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VSBL SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A THIN LINE OF PERSISTENT CU/TCU FROM
25 W ICT-25 WSW END-30 WSW LTS-65 SE LBB.  18 UTC RUC2 MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY
ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY 23-01 UTC.  AIR
MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED CAPES OF 3500-
4000 J/KG ALONG THE BAND OF CU/TCU.  INITIATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN
TWO DISTINCT AREAS...ONE NEAR SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR/EAST OF HUT
INTO NWRN OK WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE IS STRONGER...THE OTHER OVER
NWRN TX/SWRN OK WHERE THE CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND CAPE HIGHER.
ACTIVITY COULD THEN DEVELOP OVER WRN OK LATER THIS EVENING.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR EXPECTED OVER
KS/NRN OK.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
POINT TO LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED
LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 06/04/01