FXUS63 KILX 160714
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
213 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2001

PLENTY OF CONCERNS AGAIN TODAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEMONSTRATES SURFACE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY.  SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN WI SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. LATEST 0645Z IR-SATELLITE IMAGE
DEMONSTRATES THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN...MICHIGAN...SOUTHEAST
INTO OHIO VALLEY. LATEST IR-SATELLITE ALSO DEMONSTRATING ONLY
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
ILLINOIS. LATEST 0645Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE DEMONSTRATING S/W ACROSS MID
MS VALLEY...OTHERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES...AND SEVERAL INTO WESTERN US. LATEST 0652Z
KLOT RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN MOVING SOUTHEAST.

MODELS DIVERGING SOME THIS RUN. PREFER TO USE MAINLY AN ETA
SOLUTION WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE AN OVERALL BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER AVN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS TIMING SECOND SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA.  ETA
MOVES FIRST SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA TODAY. MODELS INDICATING NOT
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT. ETA SLOWS DOWN THE
MAIN/SECOND SFC COLD FRONT THIS RUN AND MOVES ACROSS CWA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  RIDGE ACROSS CWA DAMPENS NEXT 48 HRS
WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.  ETA KEEPS 50-60 PERCENT
925MB RH THRU 18Z THU THEN BRINGS 80 PERCENT 925MB RH THRU 12Z FRI
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.  ETA KEEPS ABOUT 60-70 PERCENT 700MB RH
ACROSS CWA THRU 12Z FRI. ETA MOVES THE 110KT 300MB JET IN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST AND REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THRU
NEXT 48 HRS. ETA T/H CROSS SECTIONS DEMONSTRATES LITTLE RH AT ALL
LEVELS THRU NEXT 48 HRS...EXCEPT BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 18Z WED WHERE 70
PERCENT LOW LEVEL RH. ETA KEEPS +18 850MB TEMPS THRU 00Z THU...+18
TEMPS BY 12Z THU...+16 TO +18 850 TEMPS BY 00Z FRI...+13 TO +16 850
TEMPS BY 06Z FRI...+10 TO +13 BY 12Z FRI. ETA 310K ISENTROPIC SFC
INDICATING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND COND PRES DEF ACROSS CWA
NEXT 48 HRS. LATEST ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS DEMONSTRATES FAIRLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI/S -5
TO -7. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CAP UNLIKE TUESDAY. EXPECT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVES ACROSS CWA
TODAY. WILL MENTION CHC POPS TODAY WITH BEST CHC EAST. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO MONITOR AS MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW IOWA. WILL BUMP UP POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

FWC/FAN/MAV SEEM REASONABLE.  WILL LEAN ON SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

WILL KEEP EXTENDED WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI BE 087/063 082/058 074 13435
PIA BE 085/061 080/057 073 13335
DEC BE 088/063 083/058 074 13435
CMI BE 088/063 084/058 073 13435
MTO BE 088/064 085/060 074 13435
LWV BE 089/065 086/062 075 13445

.ILX...NONE.

EH