772
ACUS1 KMKC 162021
SWODY1
MKC AC 162015

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ESE P07 30 WNW SJT 30 ENE ABI 15 WSW TPL 25 E SAT 15 WNW LRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 WNW EKN 10 SSE ROA 35 W RDU 40 WSW SOP 20 NE SPA 45 SE LOZ
20 NW SDF 35 SSW HUF 25 NW STL OJC LBL 55 E LAA 40 SSW EAR
30 NE AIA 35 NW RAP 40 W Y22 40 ESE DIK 55 NE BIS 35 NNW OTG
45 ESE FOD 40 SW RFD 25 NE CGX 30 S AZO 15 SW DAY 45 NW HTS
40 W EKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW INL
20 NNW BRD 35 W MSP 10 SW DBQ 25 SE MKE 20 SSW MBL 65 ENE MQT
...CONT... 30 SW BUF DUJ 30 W MRB 40 WSW RIC 35 ENE RWI 40 ESE EWN
...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 10 SSW AGS 25 WSW AND 30 ENE CHA 15 NNE BWG
35 ESE MVN VIH 15 ESE CNU 15 NNW END 50 WSW GAG 55 WSW TCC
15 N ABQ 30 SSW FMN 25 ESE PGA 30 SSE SGU LAS 50 NNE DAG 30 W EDW
25 NNE MER 10 NW TVL 15 SSW LOL BAM 55 NW ENV 55 SSW JAC
35 SSE HLN 40 W GTF 45 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF GDP
55 W CVS 30 S LBB 35 S SPS 30 E TPL 45 N NIR 40 S LRD.

...IL/IN SEWD TO WRN NC...
BOW SHAPED MCS MOVING SEWD INTO ERN KY AND WV EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SSEWD ALONG QUASISTATINARY FRONT UNDER MDT NNWLY FLOW ALOFT.

GIVEN WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONVERGING INTO FRONTAL ZONE AND MDT
INSTABILITY...DAMAGING WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH STRONGER CELLS.  FARTHER NW OVER IN AND IL...REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY.  ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER SE...AIR MASS
IS MORE UNSTABLE.   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATE EVENING.

...NRN /CNTRL PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN DAKOTAS IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH.   ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER DAKOTAS...THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS SOME RISK THAT STRONG CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NE AND IA/NRN MO IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
IF IT DEVELOPS...THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE EWD WITH TIME INTO IL BY
END OF PERIOD.  THERE WOULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN KANSAS MAY EXTEND ON NEWD
ALONG BOUNDARY INTO N CENTRAL KS WITH TIME.  AMS IS VERY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK.  PRIND..THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
PULSE RATHER THAN ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER PULSE STORMS DURING
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT IS MOVING EWD INTO AREA.  IT IS
CURRENTLY NOT CLEAR IF DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...IF
IT DOES IT IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY.  GIVEN THE STRONGER SHEAR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW THERE IS A RISK OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.  IF THUNDERSTORMDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...IT
IS MOST LIKELY TO INTIATE IN AREAS W AND NW OF DRT AND ON NEWD TO
NEAR ABI. CELLS WOULD THEN MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW.

..JOHNS.. 05/16/01