SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290 FOR SERN MO...SRN IL/IN...NERN
AR...WRN KY/TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION IS EVOLVING FROM SRN IL...SWWD ACROSS
SERN MO INTO NERN AR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SWEEP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN IND/WRN KY/TN IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MO...THEN STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
FROM NERN AR...NEWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SERN IL...WITH SFC-
BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  IT APPEARS UPDRAFT STRENGTH
MAY PROVE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS
SQUALL LINE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FORCING.  AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS...STRONG GUSTS WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE
PERSISTENT STORMS...BUT THIS TOO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.

..DARROW.. 03/12/01