STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR A SMALL
PART OF SERN AL..PART OF SRN GA..AND THE FL PANHANDLE...TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PNS 25 S TOI CSG 30 SW MCN 50 N AYS 20
SE AYS 45 NW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 W HUM 35 SSE BTR 25 WNW PNS 40 NW CEW 40 SW TOI 20 NNW MGM
30 NW LGC 35 SW AHN 20 NE AGS 35 NW FLO RWI 25 ENE ECG ...CONT...
25 ESE JAX 15 WSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE SGF 30 E VIH 25 N SLO BMG 50 NE SDF 20 WNW LEX 60 ENE BWG
15 N BNA 50 ENE MKL 15 ESE MEM 45 ENE PBF 25 SSW HOT 25 ENE PGO
15 NNE FYV 20 ESE SGF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W 7R4 35 N BTR
40 SSE JAN 30 NNE MEI 15 ESE CBM 20 NNW GLH 10 WNW TXK 25 SW PGO
25 NNW FYV COU 10 SE PIA 20 SW BEH 10 SE DTW ...CONT... 35 NE CLE
20 NNE PKB 10 NNE 5I3 HSS 15 WSW HKY 30 W DAN 30 WNW RIC
35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 35 SSW CTY.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...
MESO LOW CONTINUES INVOF INTERSECTION OF SQUALL LINE/BOW ECHO AND
NEAR E-W ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN GA.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS LINE...AND
AS FURTHER HEATING AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
ACTIVITY...THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
/REFERENCE SWOMCD 287/.  WITH VWP/S INVOF THE WARM FRONT YIELDING
EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES...THERE WILL ALSO REMAIN A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED /BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG/ TORNADOES FROM FAR
SERN AL INTO S-CENTRAL GA ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

FROM SERN GA/NERN FL NWD ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S ATTM OVER ERN GA/SC.  STRONG UVV/S AND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER SRN/CENTRAL GA ATTM ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THOUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPS INTO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

...AR/SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
THOUGH EXTENSIVE MCS OVER THE GULF COAST HAS INHIBITED NWD
TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS HAVE
HELD IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
MO/NWRN AR WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE-BASED CAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG
TO DEVELOP ATTM.  AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS...SBCAPES SHOULD
APPROACH 1500 J/KG IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES.  THEREFORE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER AR/MO AND DEVELOP/MOVE
QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  EXPECT THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE
HAIL TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.

..EVANS.. 03/12/01