STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 E JAX 40 SE TLH ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 35 NNE HOT 30 ENE VIH
25 NNE MMO 35 SSW JXN 40 S SDF 40 W CHA 10 S ATL 60 N AYS
25 SSE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 40 WNW NIR
45 N HDO 30 ESE SEP 25 NNW DAL 35 N DUA 40 SW TUL 20 NE PNC
35 W EMP 10 SSW P35 20 SSE MKE FNT 30 ESE MTC 25 SE YNG 35 ESE PKB
40 SW BLF 35 NNE HKY 25 SE GSO 35 ESE CHO 30 W ILG 10 NE ACY
...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 SSW CTY.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER WRN KS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING...WHILE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 14/00 UTC.  WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS TX INTO THE SRN STATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OH/TN VALLEYS BY 14/12 UTC.  MEANWHILE...BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NWD INTO THE SRN
STATES.

...GULF COASTAL REGION FROM LA INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...
STRONG SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE GULF COASTAL REGION TODAY...TRANSPORTING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
NWD/NEWD.  PLUME OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SRN TX IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM SRN LA INTO
SRN MS/AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.  WHILE CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COASTAL AREA EARLY IN THE DAY OWING TO STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION... REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM SRN LA INTO SRN GA/NWRN
FL BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL VEER TO
SWLY WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT /50-65
KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...
AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN NWD RETURN OF
MOISTURE.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST MID 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IL/SWRN IND THIS
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 00 UTC ETA SOLUTION.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ AS A
PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
ADVECTS NEWD.  GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY NRN STREAM IMPULSE...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG
WITH 0-6KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORM
THAT FORMS COULD ROTATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

..RACY.. 03/12/01