771
ACUS1 KMKC 231658
SWODY1
MKC AC 231644

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

REF WW 0480...VALID TIL 2200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S RAP 40 SSW REJ 35 SW Y22 40 WNW ABR 45 NE ATY 15 SSW STC
30 WNW EAU 30 NW VOK 20 E MMO 35 SSE MTO 25 WSW MDH 40 NNE SZL
30 SE MHK 10 SSE HUT 45 W END 50 WNW CSM 15 SE DHT 25 E TAD
45 ENE LAA 20 SSE IML 35 SE MHN 45 NE ANW 35 S RAP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE APN 10 WNW ARB
40 SSE MIE 20 SW PAH 15 SW JBR 10 S LIT 40 SSE PGO 30 S ADM
45 NE ABI 10 SE SJT DRT ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 10 NW GBN 45 W EED
20 WNW BIH 40 SSW NFL 60 ENE U31 25 NW DPG 40 SW RKS 40 SE RWL
50 N CYS 10 ENE DGW 30 NE RIW 35 NE JAC 30 NNW WEY 40 SSE GTF
45 NW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 35 NE CEW
15 W AYS 25 NNE SSI.


...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF
STATES THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAKER SRN BRANCH PERSISTING FROM THE
SWRN DESERTS TO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY.  MCV LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE
MID/UPR MS VLY...WHILE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE FROM SRN
NV.  A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IS APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/PLNS.

...CNTRL PLNS/MS VLY...
SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM IA MCV WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN/ERN IA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  RECOVERY WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED NWD INTO MN AND
WI.  THE ABOVE FACTORS...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF MODERATE /25-30
KT/ WNW FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY.  AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
ALONG WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE IA SSE INTO IL IS
QUITE EXTENSIVE...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE AREAS OF
INITIATION.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS
FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE BOWS.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY THIS EVENING...WITH A
DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE.

...SE MT/SD/MN...
CONVECTION MAY ALSO INITIATE LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
PLNS...INVOF FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT.  AREAS AND
TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MODULATED BY IMPULSES RIDING SRN
FRINGE OF THE WLYS.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED /AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/...PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR /40-50 KT/ SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
HIGH WINDS/HAIL.

...SRN HI PLNS INTO KS...
SRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER NRN NM THIS MORNING...COUPLED WITH
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MAY
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS
OF CO/KS AND PERHAPS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.  THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP FROM LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER CNTRL KS AND POSSIBLY NRN OK.

...SWRN STATES...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG PULSE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER NRN AND ERN AZ AND PERHAPS SRN UT...DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY ENE ACROSS REGION.

..CORFIDI.. 06/23/00