028
ACUS1 KMKC 210113
SWODY1
MKC AC 210111

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

REF WW 0470...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW 0471...VALID TIL 0400Z
REF WW 0472...VALID TIL 0600Z
REF WW 0473...VALID TIL 0700Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE ICT 40 SSW OJC 10 NW SZL 35 SSE IRK 20 SSE BRL 25 SE MLI
15 SSE CGX 30 S AZO TOL 15 WSW CLE 20 SSW UNI SDF 20 SSE PAH JBR
65 SE HRO FSM 20 E MLC 25 N DUA 25 S ADM 15 SSE SPS LBB ROW
40 ENE 4CR 40 WSW DHT 45 S DDC 20 NNE ICT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CZZ
60 NNE TRM 45 SSE LAS 50 N IGM GCN 60 NE INW GNT SAF ALS 45 N ALS
35 WSW COS COS 25 SSW LIC 40 SE LIC 40 E 4LJ 15 SSW GCK 40 NNW P28
HUT OJC 40 ENE IRK 40 NNE MLI LSE MKT STC BRD 70 ENE ELO
...CONT... 25 ENE ROC 10 E PSB SHD 20 E LYH 40 NE RDU GSB
45 ESE EWN ...CONT... 30 WNW PFN 20 E TOI LGC ATL 55 NNW AHN
50 S TYS 25 SW TYS 25 SE BNA UOX 30 SSE PBF 30 N ELD 20 E TXK
40 ESE PRX 20 NNE FTW 30 NW ABI 35 ESE BGS 65 SW SJT DRT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
COLD FRONT AT 21/00Z EXTENDED FROM WI SWWD ACROSS ERN IA/EXTREME
NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED
NEAR AMA. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SERN KS WHERE 30-35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINING MUCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE TO CONTINUE WITH LINE AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO SRN IL/IN/SERN
MO. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GIVEN THE 40+ KT MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NERN AR/WRN KY TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN
AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...MUCAPE ARE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MUCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG/ AND
INCREASING LIFT FROM EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAX OVER THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 40 KT...BUT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK. VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MCS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN OK AND NWRN AR
BEFORE DAYBREAK.

..IMY.. 06/20/00